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Morning sports fans,

The earnings season kicks into full swing today with ANZ,FMG ,AIO and many more…volatility continues to dominate the reactions…seems that the quality of analysts is sadly lacking given the number of surprises..last week Sims Metal shocked to the upside in a positive sign yet yesterday market darling GEM underwhelmed as the market started to question the long term strategy of acquisition to grow…more on these numbers later…anyway the market continues to track higher and higher as the hunt for yield especially by overseas investors continues…extraordinary times indeed…rally in resource stocks has really been the game changer as Rio has started a stampede of largesse for shareholders…What will BHP do? That is the question.

Anyway I continue to caution ploughing in at these lofty levels and feel that after a rally from 5300 this time a month ago with barely a pullback we are looking toppy…not sure what he catalyst will be to prick this bubble..maybe reality bites in March but even then cash in the bank is wasting away so it will find its way into the market somehow…and we all know what stocks it will buy…banks,TLS,WOW,WES…maybe RIO but they are toppy …

One of the only parts of the economy that is doing well seems to be financial services…feels like price gouging and excessive fees are making a lot of companies very rich..mandated Super at 9% is a company maker…and talking fees…..

Idea of the Day-GEM

Yesterday’s number was a little disappointing….these guys have 34,270 childcare places in the group…which equates to the market valuing them at $45,000 a spot…that still seems somewhat high especially when you compare it to the Baby GEM Affinity Group which has 11,600 places and values each place at $21,000…now hard to compare apples with apples as Affinity is a younger company but they are following the same business plan so eventually eith GEM will buy them or the share price will rise to a more equitable valuation..of course both models could be in trouble depending on a Captains Call from A’bbutt and the budget will clarify!!

Some weeks ago I suggested buying MQG as they would hit 63 bucks from around 58..well they are now 68 and have just realised a profit forecast at the top of the range… they expect their full-year profits to come in at the “upper end” of its forecast range of $1.4 billion to $1.52 billion,so maybe there is more to come and I would not be surprised to see a $75 price in coming months…don’t say you weren’t not warned..

Things to make me go mmmm!!!

US closed for Presidents Day…Obama gets to play golf again!!

ANZ Bank has delivered unaudited cash profits of $1.79 billion for the first quarter, a 3.5 per cent increase on a year ago, citing a tougher environment.

Fortescue numbers are out and reveal the full extent of the horror of the price collapse…revenue down 17%..profit down 81%…dividend walloped to 3cents rather than 10 cents!!!Suspect the market may well take this badly..I guess it depends on the commentary which I have yet to see…still if this price continues at these levels things will get interesting indeed!!

Cardno delivers at top end of guidance..but outlook statement still very cautionary…don’t expect a turnaround soon!!!Long hill to climb…

Invocare did well out of more people dying with a 11% rise in after tax profits to $54.5m.

Challenger has hiked up its interim dividend by 16 per cent to 14.5c per share (partially franked), as the annuities giant continues to record growth in its annuities and funds management businesses.

Coca-Cola Amatil has posted its lowest profit for eight years, with underlying net profit falling 25.3 per cent to $375.5 million in 2014 as CCA’s soft drink brands lost sales and market share in supermarkets and convenience outlets.

Seek has delivered a record half-year net profit of $182.8 million, a 64 per cent surge from a year ago, despite subdued growth in the Australian economy…..Dick Smith announced anaemic sales growth from existing stores…but said they were optimistic. Shares up 5 cents from listing…

The Malcolm Show last night…come on everyone wants him to take over…just do it!!

Looks like Greece is playing hard ball….apparently the government is saying that in six months the country will have changed beyond recognition…not sure which way though!@!!

“It is now widely acknowledged – even within the eurozone – that forming the euro was a serious mistake.”

Roger Bootle of Captial Economics says the euro should never have been born,  although finance ministers have little choice but to press on with it.

where to be born

USA has slipped from 1st in 1988…we were 18th then…obviously taken pre A’Butt…

Nor sure about the pronounciation of the new Chief Whip..ButtHoltz..really!!

Baltic Dry Index of bulk shipping not looking too healthy as eight big boats get scrapped!!

bdi

Record brealing cold spells could really hurt the US economy again much as they did in 2014 at around the same time..the GDP number was a disaster…dropped 5%!!!!First quarter went from a 2.2% prediction to a 2.9% fall!!!Nasty…could be Groundhog Day..

GroundhogDay

And finally…..

 

 

I saw my mate Charlie this morning, he’s only got one arm bless him.

I shouted – Where you off to Charlie?

He said, I’m off to change a light bulb.

Well I just cracked up, couldn’t stop laughing, then said,

– That’s gonna be a bit awkward init?

– Not really. he said. I still have the receipt, you insensitive bastard.

Have a great day…

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