It never rains but it pours. Another miserable rain affected day in paradise with Golds and Resource stocks absolutely trashed again. BHP Billiton (A$31.75, -1.5%), RIO Tinto (A$54.60, -1.4%) and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (A$3.55, -3.3%) all looking weak but Golds especially bad in view of the punishment in the Gold price. Newcrest Mining (A$18.49, -5.2%) have fallen hard through $20 and seem to be on their way to $15. Banks and other financials all performed better but after lunch time relative strength collapsed and even the old faithfuls capitulated. Telstra (A$4.54, unch) was the firmest stock in the market with little movement today. Some of the standout performers were QBE Insurance Group (A$13.70, unch), Insurance Australia Group (A$5.67, -0.5%) and Suncorp Group (A$11.60, +0.2%) as household insurance increases look to help the sector. However Macquarie Group (A$36.59, -2.3%) was seriously punished for its sins, whatever they were!
Having started somewhat better than I thought we even had some good numbers to help things out economically but some panic selling after lunch and towards the close left things looking very nasty. Maybe this is the capitulation that the market wants to see… mmm. Time will tell.
The biggest casualties were in the resource stocks with Silver Lake Resources (A$1.63, -16.8%) ,Resolute Mining (A$1.095, -10.6%), Beadell Resources (A$0.76, -9.0%) and Kingsgate Consolidated (A$3.35, -9.9%) leading the golds down. Every man and his dog seems to be adjusting down their Gold price outlook. Along with the miners and explorers, the service companies also took it badly today. Always interesting to see how a 2/3% move in the gold price translates into a 10 fall in the miners! Macmahon (A$0.20, -7.0%), Maca (A$2.79, -4.1%), NRW (A$1.42, -6.0%) and Resource Equipment Ltd (A$0.20, +5.3%) all looked awful.
The market is focussing on the May Budget, a nuclear war and the death of Gold. None of it very cheery. I would expect to see a little bottom picking tomorrow pre the weekend but China is closed for “Ching Ming” Festival so buying will be muted! Especially if North Korea continues to rattle that sabre. Would have thought Gold would have been better on that backdrop, but holders appear to be jumping ship fast!
Market now seems to believe that the rate cutting cycle is over and the only way is up baby, you and me girl!
Stocks in the News
House favourite Silver Lake Resources (A$1.63, -16.8%) had an operational update today and it did not help things along at all. Seems they are having issues with the dreaded cost overruns with their contractor so that has killed them .Also in the gun sights was Linc Energy Ltd (A$1.87, -7.4%).
Fairfax Media (A$0.61, -1.6%) announced a restructure of its media business with a labyrinth of changes to reporting structure and responsibility. Looks like they are making it easier to split and sell bits. Also they talked about subscription for digital services starting in June quarter. They will now account for some of their valuable business like Domain separately which mat reveal some value there.
Billabong International (A$0.73, unch) announced today that they would seek an indefinite suspension pending negotiations with their two suitors. Rumours that the price is now 73cents are troubling! The management would have been so distracted by these approaches it is a wonder they have any business left… wait, maybe they haven’t! At 73 cents it would be tough for the board to recommend especially down from 1.10!
In economics today, Retail trade +1.3% in February after upwardly revised +1.2% in Jan. Best start to a year for retail trade since 2001.And in Building approvals, they rose strongly in February. Approvals for the construction of new homes and units rose 3.1 per cent in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.
And in a day when British Aerospace cut 450 jobs in Australia another Multi National Petroleum giant Shell has announced that its Geelong refinery is for sale. Shell said if a buyer cannot be found the refinery could be converted into a fuel import terminal. Or of course just closed! Too much cheap Asian competition.
Tomorrows News Today
Eyes fixed on the ECB tonight as Mario “Whatever it takes ”Draghi will keep rates unchanged but may talk about Plan B. Looking at the Zombie economies it seems that Plan A is failing dramatically as things go from worse to worser!
Now the usual safe haven of Gold in troubled times seems to have given way to Bitcoin. The Digital fantasy currency has had a massive run in recent times hitting a high of $141 dollars. Tulips are so 17th Century! Bitcoin much more fun! And to think that it was invented only 4 years ago. Now worth around $1.6bn!
Looks like the authorities are now investigating Deutsche for hiding derivative losses of around $12bn during the GFC!
And for those up early and at work late, I am topping and tailing Sky Biz tomorrow with a show at 7am and 5.30! Not sure the schedule was thought through