ASX 200 closed up 10 points to 7267 (+0.1%) rebounding from a midday slump. Gold stocks performed well today, as gold prices rose above $2,010 snapping a three-day decline spurred on by safe-haven buying. NCM up 1.5%, after accepting Newmont’s takeover offer, NST +2.9%, EVN +4.2%, and PRU +2.9%. Financials weighed on the market, The Big Bank Basket down to $169.62 (-0.8%) ANZ off 4.0% ex dividend,, MQG down 2.4% as it went ex dividend too and CBA slipped 0.5%. Interest rate sensitive tech stocks lower, All-Tech Index down 0.5% hampered by SQ2 down 2.7% and REA off 1.7%. Lithium stocks were mostly down, PLS -1.1%, AKE -1.9%, LTR +1.4%, while SYA rose 4.7%.  Oil stocks fell on lower crude prices, WHC off 0.7% and NHC down 1.0%. REITs firmed despite a rise in bond yields GMG up 1.1% and CHC up 2.8%. Healthcare and insurers mixed, CSL +0.5%, RMD -0.5%, QBE +1.1%, and SUN off 0.8%. Elsewhere, MYR down 8.1%, WAM off 5.8% and CXL falling 7.7% as money found a way back into resource stocks. In corporate news, ELD tumbled 13.3% after reporting a 46.5% fall in NPAT and a dividend cut. ALL acquires NeoGames for $1.5bn, up 2.1%. IVC +12.1% received a revised offer from TPG Capital and PBH fell 21.1% after announcing it has entered into a binding agreement to sell its US business to Fanatics Betting for $222m. In economic news, private house approvals in Australia fell 2.8% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis after an 11.3% in February, WA the only state that saw an increase of 8.7%. Asian markets up, Japan up 0.9% and HK up 2.0% with China up 0.2%. Australia 10Y yield up 10bps to 3.42%. Bitcoin up 1.51%. Dow Jones futures up 53 points and Nasdaq futures up 20 points.

HEADLINES

• Winners: IVC. SLR, RED, NWS, SYA, EVN, DVP
• Losers: PBH, ELD, NAN, MYR, CXL, VUL, BRN, ADT
• Positive sectors: Iron ore. Gold miners. Oil and gas. Healthcare. REITs
• Negative sectors: Banks (Ex-Div). ‘Old Skool’ Platforms.
• High 7267 Low 7235.
• Big Bank Basket: Falls to $169.62 (0.8%). ANZ Ex-Dividend.
• All-Tech index: Down 0.5%
• Gold back up to $3019
• Bitcoin: Falls to US$27222
• Aussie Dollar: Steady at 66.82c
• 10-Year Yield: Higher at 3.42%.
• Asian markets: Japan up 0.9% China up 0.2% HK up 2.0%
• US Futures: Dow up 53 Nasdaq up 20
• European markets expected open higher.

MAJOR MOVERS

• IVC +12.08% back from the dead with new bid from TPG.
• SLR +7.88% gets rejected again on SBM deal.
• RED +6.25% gold push.
• DEG +3.47% bullion increase.
• NWS +5.05% very thin volume.
• BEZ +9.84% back in favour.
• BTH +6.25% tech rally continues.
• IKE +6.62% thin new CFO.
• PBH -21.14% sells US business for $222m.
• CXL -7.68% ASX query after drop. Plays Schultz card.
• ELD -13.25% Allison going out on low. Div cut and results underwhelm.
• NAN -8.93% not happy Jan with new CFO announcement.
• AVH -19.60% grazed knee.
• PGH -14.06% business update.
• MYR -8.07% Solly not happy.
• CCX -3.75% Brett Blundy circling.
• Speculative Stock of the Day: Westar Resources (WSR) +52.94% Maiden RC program intersects pegmatites at Olga Rocks.

COMPANY NEWS

• St Barbara (SBM) is expected to reject Silver Lake’s (SLR) revised proposal as the path to a deal narrows, favouring the previously agreed offer from Genesis Minerals (GMD) for its assets in Western Australia’s Leonora region. SBM found SLR’s initial approach unappealing due to pricing and concerns regarding conditionality and timing.
• Newcrest Mining (NCM) – Accepts Newmont’s takeover offer, with shareholders to receive 0.40 Newmont shares per Newcrest share, along with a potential special dividend. Resulting in an implied Newcrest share price of $29.27c and an enterprise value of $28.8bn. The deal is expected to be implemented by the end of 2023.
• Tyro Payments (TYR) – Raises its FY23 gross profit and EBITDA guidance ranges, citing strong results. Gross profit is now expected to be $192m to $194m, while EBITDA is projected to be $41m to $43m, driven by margin improvement and cost reduction efforts.
• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) – Agrees to acquire NeoGames for $1.5bn in cash, valuing NeoGames’ fully diluted equity at $1bn. The acquisition is recommended by the NeoGames board, and Aristocrat plans to fund it with existing cash while increasing its share buyback program by up to $500m.
• Elders (ELD) – Reports a 46.5% decrease in statutory NPAT for the six months to March 31 and a 37.7% decline in underlying EBIT. As a result, the company reduces its dividend by 18% and expects FY23 underlying EBIT to be 18.1% lower than FY22.
• Pact Group (PGH) – Lowers its earnings guidance due to tightening economic conditions, softer demand in Asia, and recent weather events in New Zealand, expecting underlying EBIT for FY23 to be in the range of $142m to $147m. The company plans cost reduction programs to mitigate the impact and flatten operating costs in FY24.
• Invocare Ltd (IVC) has received a revised proposal from TPG to acquire all the issued capital for $13 per share, which includes a fully franked special dividend of up to approximately $0.60 per share. The proposal is conditional, non-binding, and subject to due diligence. InvoCare intends to recommend the proposal, if it becomes a binding transaction.
• Karoon Energy (KAR) -Announces the restart of production from its BM-S-40 production license in Brazil. Current production exceeds 32,000 barrels of oil per day and is expected to reach peak rates above 40,000 barrels per day in the coming week, while the company maintains its unchanged FY23 guidance.
• AVZ Minerals Ltd (AVZ) has received a request for arbitration from Congolaise D’Exploitation Miniere SA (Cominière) and Jin Cheng Mining Company Limited (Jin Cheng) for alleged breaches of the Dathcom Joint Venture Agreement (Dathcom JVA), claiming damages of approximately $850m from Jin Cheng and $566m for Cominière, and an order declaring the termination of the Dathcom joint venture. AVZ Minerals denies the allegations and considers them to be spurious in nature, without merit, and containing fundamental and material errors.
• Nib Holdings Ltd (NHF) has completed the acquisition of All Disability Plan Management, a National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) plan manager based in Port Macquarie, New South Wales. All Disability provides services to approximately 3,000 NDIS participants. This is nib’s fourth NDIS plan manager acquisition, and it aims to reach 50,000 NDIS participants by FY2025.
• Mincor Resources NL (MCR) Wyloo has extended its on-market takeover bid for all of the fully paid ordinary shares in Mincor Resources (MCR). The offer period has been extended until 5 June 2023, unless extended or withdrawn.

ECONOMICS & OTHER NEWS

• National Australia Bank has reverted to its previous call that the Reserve Bank will lift the cash rate to a peak of at least 4.1% by July. NAB said it wouldn’t rule out the prospect of an additional rise to 4.35% if the data stays stronger for longer.

Building Approvals – Key statistics

The March 2023 seasonally adjusted estimate:

• Total dwellings approved fell 0.1%.
• Private sector houses fell 2.8%, while private sector dwellings excluding houses rose 5.6%.
• The value of total building fell 5.9%, while value of new residential building fell 6.4%.
• The value of non-residential building fell 5.1%.

ASIAN MARKETS

• The People’s Bank of China injected more long-term liquidity into the financial system for the sixth month in a bid to bolster economic growth when multiple economic indicators revealed faltering recovery momentum.In Thailand, the Move Forward party leads vote in pro-democracy surge. Pheu Thai was in second place. If the results hold, the two parties are projected to win about 292 seats, more than enough for a coalition majority in the 500-seat lower house.
• China has sentenced a 78-year-old American passport holder, John Leung, to life in prison on spying charges.
• In South Korea, beer imports from Japan outpaced those from China for the first time since July 2019.

US AND EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• European markets are heading for a better opening today.
• US Debt ceiling negotiations still stalled.
• Turkish elections look like they will end in a runoff. President Erdogan is in the lead with more than 2m votes ahead but still without enough to avoid a second round on May 28.
• US crypto Tsar promises crackdown on digital platforms.
• Oaktree’s Howard Marks warns of crunch time for private credit.
• Fanatics agreed to buy the U.S. operations of PointsBet (PBH). The deal values the assets at about US$150m.
• UK to provide more air defence missiles to Ukraine.

Clarence

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