ASX 200 finishes the week up 27 points to 7220 (+0.4%), rebounding from early lows again as bargain hunters stepped in. ASX 200 down 1.2% for the week. Banks did a double take after the ANZ and MQG results. ANZ kicked 1.5% higher on record profits and talked increased competition as anticipated. MQG slipped slightly on its numbers. The commodities division once again the superstars. The Big Bank Basket rose to $167.86 (+0.4%). Insurers up with SUN better by 1.1% and QBE up 0.7%. Fund managers mixed. Industrials firm still; they have been the haven this week, REITs continue higher as bond yields fall, GMG up 3.0% and SGP up 2.3%. Tech weaker despite yields falling, ALL down 1.7% and TPG falling 1.3%. Resources mixed, lithium in demand with PLS up 4.02% and IGO up 3.2% even MIN chipped in with a 2.6% rise. Iron ore stocks still struggling, gold miners better on near record bullion prices. NCM up 2.2% and EVN up 2.3%. CHN did well up 2.8% and LTR up 3.6% giving Tim a nice weekend. In corporate news, ANZ and MQG the focal point. On the economic front, we had lending numbers and the SoMP. No real surprises. But no real hope for rates either. Asian markets muted Japan closed and China down 0.6% with HK up 0.6%. Dow futures up 58 points. NASDAQ futures up 50 points.

HEADLINES

• Winners: BRN, AGY, WBT, SYR, RED, STX, RMS, 29M
• Losers: VUL, TIE, VUK, CRN, MGX, AD8, SHV
• Positive sectors: Lithium. Gold. Banks. REITs.
• Negative sectors: Tech. Iron ore.
• High 7220 Low 7168 ASX 200 down 1.2% for the week.
• Big Bank Basket: Bounces to $167.86 (+0.4%)
• All-Tech index: Unchanged.
• Gold drifts to $3039.
• Bitcoin: Rises to US$29224
• Aussie Dollar: Better at 67.38c
• 10-Year Yield: Steady at 3.32%.
• Asian markets: Japan Children’s Day holiday.  China down 0.6% HK up 0.6%
• US Futures: Dow up 58 Nasdaq up 50. NFP tonight.
• European market expected to see a good bounce around 0.4%. HSBC AGM in Birmingham.

MAJOR MOVERS

• BRN +8.86% chips are frying tonight.
• SYR +7.41% bargain hunters.
• AGY +8.54% lithium back.
• WBT +7.49% rally continues.
• RED +5.88% gold rises.
• BRB +5.26% RMS backdoor. 1 RMS for every 2.82 BRB.
• MEI +14.29% shooting star.
• VUL -16.40% placement.
• VUK -5.5% results weigh.
• TIE – 5.88% no reason.
• 360 -5.5% tech selling.
• SLR -3.29% knocked back on SBM deal.
• WHC -3.00% coal price eases.
• BET -6.06% heading to oblivion. Betr for sale.
• Speculative Stock of the Day:  Codrus (CDR) +20.00% Ok volume. Maiden drill hole hits high grade clay hosted rare earth mineralisation at Karloning. Good grades too.

COMPANY NEWS

• ANZ (ANZ) – CEO Shayne Elliott warned of a challenging outlook due to intense competition in retail banking in Australia and New Zealand. Despite reporting a 12% increase in cash profit to $3.8bn and an 11.4% rise in return on equity for the first half of the 2023 financial year, ANZ’s statutory profits slipped 1%.
• Macquarie Group (MQG) – Commodities trading business helped deliver a 10% rise in annual profit, with net income rising to $50.18bn in the year to March 31, beating analyst forecasts. The bank’s commodities and global markets unit saw a 54% surge in profit to $6bn, while the investment banking advisory business saw profits almost halve, falling to $801m, compared with a year ago.
• Rio Tinto (RIO)- AGM Comments – CEO Jakob Stausholm says the price tag on lithium assets is too high for his liking. He saw no point in buying lithium assets in a hot market. He pretty much ruled out RIO getting into a fight over LTR. RIO does not expect Argentina to follow the lead of its South American neighbour Chile and attempt a partial nationalisation of the lithium industry, despite its economic troubles. RIO finalised the $US825m acquisition of the Rincon project – near Orocobre’s flagship Olaroz operations, in Argentina last year. Stausholm also said WA had provided stable policy setting for decades and that the McGowan government had helped the resources industry navigate the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Group 6 Metals (G6M) – In a trading halt pending a $32m equity raising for working capital and to help debt investors convert to equity. The company’s three-part cash call was split into a $22m placement, a $5m conditional tranche to its executive director Chris Ellis, and a $5m share purchase plan for retail shareholders. All three legs would be priced at 14c.
• BKI Investment Company (BKI) -Raised $72.98m through its share purchase plan, which was offered to its shareholders at $1.66 per share.

ECONOMICS & OTHER NEWS

The RBA has released its Statement of Monetary Policy (SOMP). Click here to read the full statement

• The Reserve Bank is forecasting inflation to slow at a faster rate than in its February projections and the economy to have a stronger economic recovery than expected.
• It expects the trimmed mean inflation at 6% by June, down from 6.2%. It expects it to slow to 4% by year-end, from 4.3% expected in February.
• Also, a pessimistic take on the economy predicting the gross domestic product to expand only 1.7% by June, down from 2.3% in its February forecast. It anticipates activity to grow 1.2% by year-end, from 1.6% initially expected.
• But the RBA expects the economy to rebound at a faster pace than expected (once it stops raising rates!), forecasting GDP to rise 2.1% by mid-2025, from 1.7% initially thought.

Lending Indicators

In March 2023, new loan commitments (seasonally adjusted):

• Rose 4.9% for housing.
• Fell 3.1% for personal fixed term loans.
• Fell 23.2% for business construction (a typically volatile series) but rose 1.8% in trend terms.
• Fell 1.3% for business purchase of property (a typically volatile series) and fell 0.7% in trend terms.

• The number of new owner-occupier first home buyer loan commitments in Australia rose 15.8% in March, but this is still 22% lower than a year ago. The overall value of new loan commitments for housing rose 4.9% to $24.0bn, with the value of new owner-occupier loan commitments rising 5.5%.

ASIAN MARKETS

• China’s Caixin services purchasing managers index for April slipped to 56.4 from March’s reading of 57.8 but remained in expansion while the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory.
• Headline inflation in the Philippines have eased for the third straight month to 6.6% year on year, down from 7.6% in March. This was also lower than economists’ expectations of a 7% rise.
• Indonesia’s gross domestic product expanded 5.03% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023.

US AND EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• US Jobs number tonight. Forecasts for the slowest pace of jobs growth since 2020.
• The FDIC is planning to release as soon as next week a highly anticipated proposal for refilling its Deposit Insurance Fund. Smaller lenders with less than $10bn in assets wouldn’t have to pay. The FDIC has said that covering uninsured depositors will cost the Depositors Insurance Fund (DIF) US$19.2bn and would be paid by special assessment fees.
• US regulators are now investigating potential market manipulation in the trading of Regional Banks. Is the bear hunt over?
• Investors are likely to favor gold and technology stocks as defensives according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
• The pile of cash parked at money-market funds hit a record $US5.31 trillion in the past week. About $US47.2bn poured into US money-market funds in the week to May 3rd.
• HSBC AGM in Birmingham. Warren and Charlie show in Omaha.
• Apple chief Tim Cook singled out India on Thursday as pivotal. The company posted record sales for a March quarter in India, reflecting its increasing reliance on the market to galvanize overall growth.
• Oil headed for a third straight weekly decline, the longest losing run this year. Oil has slumped 14% this year even after a decision by OPEC and its allies to cut production from this month.

• BMW has advised 90,000 car owners to stop driving their cars. It appears there is a defect in the indicators. They do not work ever.
• German March Industrial production down 10.7 m/m. Nasty number.
• Naples wins Serie A for the first time in 33 years.
• Coronation this weekend. Excited? In 1953, the Australian Inflation rate was 4.9% – Interest rates were around 5% for mortgages. Yields on long dated bonds 4.5%. 70 years ago.

And finally….

1. Dad, are we pyromaniacs? Yes, we arson.

2. What do you call a pig with laryngitis? Disgruntled.

3. Writing my name in cursive is my signature move.

4. Why do bees stay in their hives during winter? Swarm.

5. If you’re bad at haggling, you’ll end up paying the price.

6. Just so everyone’s clear, I’m going to put my glasses on.

7. A commander walks into a bar and orders everyone around.

8. I lost my job as a stage designer. I left without making a scene.

9. Never buy flowers from a monk. Only you can prevent florist friars.

10. How much did the pirate pay to get his ears pierced? A buccaneer.

11. I once worked at a cheap pizza shop to get by. I kneaded the dough.

12. My friends and I have named our band ‘Duvet’. It’s a cover band.

13. I lost my girlfriend’s audiobook, and now I’ll never hear the end of it.

14. Why is ‘dark’ spelled with a k and not c? Because you can’t see in the dark.

15. Why is it unwise to share your secrets with a clock? Well, time will tell.

16. When I told my contractor I didn’t want carpeted steps, they gave me a blank stare.

17. Bono and The Edge walk into a Dublin bar and the bartender says, “Oh no, not U2 again.”

18. Prison is just one word to you, but for some people, it’s a whole sentence.

19. Scientists got together to study the effects of alcohol on a person’s walk, and the result was staggering.

20. I’m trying to organize a hide and seek tournament, but good players are really hard to find.

21. I got over my addiction to chocolate, marshmallows, and nuts. I won’t lie, it was a rocky road.

22. What do you say to comfort a friend who’s struggling with grammar? There, their, they’re.

23. I went to the toy store and asked the assistant where the Schwarznegger dolls are and he replied, “Aisle B, back.”

24. What did the surgeon say to the patient who insisted on closing up their own incision? Suture self.

25. I’ve started telling everyone about the benefits of eating dried grapes. It’s all about raisin awareness.

Clarence

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