ASX 200 fell 15 points to 7113 (0.2%) in a day dominated by Super Thursday results. Resources are stumbling lower as gold miners slid, NCM off 2.9% and NST down 4.1%. Base metals and lithium shares under a little pressure, MIN off 1.0%, PLS down 1.9% and LYC falling 3.1%. Oil stocks firmed on higher crude prices, coal stocks again in demand, WHC up 2.2% and NHC better by 3.7%. Industrials slipped slightly, TCL disappointed with results falling 3.4%, WES eased 0.8%, REITs down led by SCG down 1.0%. Healthcare mixed as CSL rallied 2.3% with the rest of the sector suffering from the sniffles. Tech down and out for now, WTC down 1.9%, XRO off 7.1% and SQ2 falling 6.0%. The AllTech Index fell 2.2%. Banks were mixed as CBA rallied 1.4% and NAB up 0.3% with ANZ and WBC easing lower. The Big Bank Basket pretty unchanged at 178.33 Insurers eased and MQG slid 0.9% with ASX off 4.0%. MFG continues lower by 0.9% with PNI down 2.6% In corporate news, plenty happening, TWE rose 4.0% following its numbers, BXB 3.6% better on broker upgrades, IRE moving higher in results, CDA and BKL both tanked on disappointing numbers, XRO fell 7.1% and TLX down 8.7%. KLL returned to trade with a large capital raise and debt restructure, down 38.0%. In economic news, the jobs headline was 3.4% unemployment. Everyone that wants a go gets a go. Scottie has many goes. Asian market weaker, Japan down 0.9%, China down 1% and HK down 0.7%. 10-year yields rise to 3.32%

HEADLINES

  • Winners: IPH, NWH, BCB, TER, TWE, RIC, NHC
  • Losers: BKL, CDA, TLX, RRL, PGH, VUL, ASM, IMU.
  • Positive sectors: Coal. Oil and gas.
  • Negative sectors: Tech. Financials. Lithium. Base metals. Gold.
  • High 7119 Low 7081. Jobs number 3.4%. 48-year low.
  • Big Bank Basket: Unchanged at $178.33
  • All-Tech index: Down 2.2% XRO falls.
  • Gold: A little higher at $2547.
  • Bitcoin: Weaker at US$23,428
  • Aussie Dollar: Drifts to 69.32c on jobs number.
  • 10-Year Yield:  Pushes higher to 3.32%.
  • Asian markets: Weaker across the board, Japan up 0.9%, China down 1% and HK down 0.7%.
  • US Futures: Dow down 20 Nasdaq down 20
  • European markets opening slightly higher.

MAJOR MOVERS

  • IPH +16.02% results cheer.
  • BCB +6.15% TER +5.92% old king coal is still a merry old soul.
  • BXB +3.55% broker upgrades.
  • SZL +17.24% business update.
  • BLX +8.18% shining lights
  • CSL +2.29% broker upgrades.
  • TYR +9.09% back in green.
  • NWH +6.25% results then halt as news of a proposal to buy MLD.
  • MLD +1.00% bidding war breaks out.
  • WHC +2.21% change in substantial holding – 11 year high.
  • CDA -9.75% turns into a second half story.
  • BKL -10.07% results disappoint.
  • RRL -8.52% company update.
  • XRO -7.11% results underwhelm.
  • SLX -6.71% profit taking.
  • KLL -38.04% capital raising.
  • CTT -13.24% short squeeze may be over.
  • NXL -3.52% CEO acknowledges possible takeover target if not for legal issues.
  • Speculative Stock of the Day: Nothing today on any volume.

IN THE NEWS

  • Origin Energy (ORG) full-year underlying profit $407m vs consensus $520.2m. There remains uncertainty around the range of potential earnings outcomes for FY23. Final dividend 16.5c (75% franked), takes full-year dividend to 29c vs consensus 27c.
  • Blackmores (BKL) full-year underlying profit $31.1m vs year-ago $25.4m. Focused on delivering FY23 $55m gross annualised cost savings target, assessing further cost out opportunities beyond FY23. Continues to navigate consumer and trade headwinds in China. Early signs of supply chains re-shaping with consumer demand improving as lockdowns are lifted
  • Orora (ORA) full-year EBIT $285.5m vs consensus $283.4m. Revenue $4.09bn vs consensus $3.92bn. Final dividend of 8.5c (unfranked), up 13.3% on FY21. Total dividends declared 16.5c vs consensus 16c. Group earnings are expected to be higher in FY23, in what is expected to be a challenging year of economic conditions.
  • Medibank Private (MPL) full-year underlying profit $435.1m vs consensus $419.4m. Revenue $7.13bn vs consensus $7.22bn. Final dividend 7.3c (fully franked). Continues to assess claims activity and any permanent net claims savings due to COVID-19 will be given back to customers through additional support in the future. In FY23 expects policyholder growth of ~2.7% assuming a modest decline in industry participation growth in FY23 relative to FY22.
  • Macquarie Group (MQG) releases its Pillar 3 disclosures for its banking division. Common Equity Tier 1 12.3% vs quarter-ago 11.5%. Leverage ratio 5.1% vs quarter-ago 5.0%. Liquidity coverage ratio 221% vs quarter-ago 195%.
  • Transurban Group (TCL) full-year proportional EBITDA $1.90bn vs consensus $1.92bn. Proportional toll revenue $2.63bn vs consensus $2.74bn. Free cash flow $1.53bn vs consensus $1.44bn. Full-year dividend 41c vs consensus 40c. Second half dividend 26c, 2c will be fully franked and 24c partially franked. Expects FY23 dividend of 53.0c, up 30% vs a year ago.
  • Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) full-year EBIT $523.7m vs consensus $521.4m. Revenue $2.48bn vs consensus $2.51bn. Final dividend 16c, fully franked. Full-year dividend of 31c vs consensus 29c. Long-term financial objective remains to deliver sustainable top-line growth, high single-digit average earnings growth and a Group EBITS margin target of 25%+.
  • Xero (XRO) repeats guidance for FY23, total operating expenses as % of revenue to be towards the lower end of 80-85% range.
  • Regis Resources (RRL) expects to make non-cash adjustments and guides FY statutory profit $10-20m vs year-ago $146.2m.

ECONOMIC NEWS/ BOND MARKETS

  • Does this look like a recession is looming?

Unemployment

In seasonally adjusted terms, in July 2022:

  • unemployment rate decreased to 3.4%.
  • unemployment rate was 1.9 pts below March 2020.
  • unemployed people decreased by 20,200 to 473,600.
  • unemployed people was 245,700 lower than March 2020.
  • youth unemployment rate decreased to 7.0%.
  • youth unemployment rate was 4.6 pts lower than March 2020.

ASIAN MARKETS

  • The United States and Taiwan have launched formal negotiations to bolster trade ties.
  • Yu Xiekang, vice chairman of the China Semiconductor Industry Association says the new US Chips act is discriminatory. He said “it contains essentially discriminatory clauses in market competition and creates an unfair playing field, which goes against the WTO’s fair-trade principles.” I think that is the whole point!
  • Chinese property developer cash flows through July are down 24% year-on-year on an annualized basis, according to Oxford Economics’ lead economist, Tommy Wu.
  • Tencent’s revenue dropped 3% as a slowing economy further dented its online-ad revenue, while its videogame business continued to struggle from tighter regulations

US AND EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • Musk says he was joking about buying Man U.
  • Eeyore and the BoE under fire over UK 10.1% inflation rate. The biggest sovereign wealth fund (SWF) in the world has lostUS$174bn in first half.
  • SPAC activity hits its lowest level in 5 years.
  • ECB’s Schnabel says that a recession alone is not enough to contain inflation.
  • The City is facing a shake up if Liz Truss becomes the next UK PM with the FCA, PRA and PSR set to merge.

And finally….

Clarence