ASX 200 rallied another 41 points to 7105 (0.6%) as BHP release a cracker result and a record dividend of US1.75c. BHP accounted for 24 index points with a gain of 4.1% on the results. FMG joined in up 1.6% but RIO stuck in the slow lane. Base metals slipped and lithium came off the boil, MIN down 0.4%, BSL down 2.6% and CXO down 7.7% with PLS down 1.9%. Oil and gas stocks slipped on crude falls. WDS fell 1.8%, STO down 0.3% and BPT falling another 3.3% with Macquarie downgrading. Gold miners under pressure despite AUD bullion rising on a falling AUD. NCM down 0.7% and NST off 1.0%. Banks and defensives were in demand as yield fell to 3.22%. The Big Bank Basket rose to $178.64 (0.5%) with CBA the stand-out, up 1%. MQG rose 1.0% and insurers were mixed after CGF dropped 10.1% on disappointing results. Healthcare stocks rallied led by CSL up 1.1% and RMD up 1.5% with RHC rallying 2.0%. Staples were better, WES up 0.3%, EDV up 2.3% and WOW higher by 1.1%. ‘Old Skool’ platforms fell, SEK off 5.1%, REA down 1.5% and CAR down 2.7% after results yesterday. Tech slipped with the index down 0.5% and WTC off 0.3%.  TPW soared 29.8% as shorts ran for cover on better than expected numbers. ZIP dropped 7.1% and ELD fell 4.0% on foot and mouth concerns. In corporate news, BHP was the highlight. CGF fell 10.1% on results, TGR rose 5.1% on a takeover at 523c in cash, 4DS crashed 68.1% as the technology stumbled with numerous problems. 360 up 5.5% as it heads for profit, SWM fell 3.9% despite CEO saying ad concerns are overblown. SGM down 3.3% looking at ways to cut costs as scrap metal prices sag. In economic news, ANZ Consumer confidence rose slightly, and RBA minutes were released with no surprises. Asian markets: mixed, Japan flat, China unchanged on rate cut and HK down 0.4%. 10-year yields at 3.22%.

HEADLINES

  • Winners: TPW, SLX, SMR, 360, PBH, TGR, EVT, LLL
  • Losers: CGF, CXO, LKE, ZIP, GMA, SEK, TYR
  • Positive sectors: Banks. Staples. Iron ore. Healthcare.
  • Negative sectors: Tech. Platform stocks. REITs.
  • High 7132 Low 7083.
  • Big Bank Basket: Unchanged at $178.64 (0.5%)
  • All-Tech index: Down 0.5% CPU steadies
  • Gold: A little higher at $2535.
  • Bitcoin: Down to US$23953
  • Aussie Dollar: Drifts to 70.25c
  • 10-Year Yield:  Drops hard to 3.22%.
  • Asian markets: Mixed, Japan flat, China unchanged on rate cut and HK down 0.4%.
  • US Futures: Dow down 20 Nasdaq down 32.
  • European markets opening higher across the board.

MAJOR MOVERS

  • TPW +29.77% results better than expected.
  • SLX +11.50% bouncing off support.
  • 360 +5.45% better than expected results.
  • TGR +5.11% takeover at 523c in cash.
  • LLL +4.63% kicks higher in lithium exposure.
  • ALU +3.66% tech bounce.
  • GCY +25.93% high-grade gold discovery confirmed.
  • TNG +9.09% acquires lithium project.
  • ABY +30.95% serious buying.
  • LRS +8.70% drilling confirms significant new discovery at Colina West
  • 4DS -68.13% major issues with technology.
  • CGF -10.11% results underwhelm.
  • LKE -8.22% sellers step back in.
  • Z1P -7.11% short squeeze looks like it’s over.
  • CXO -7.74% under pressure.
  • SEK -5.13% FY results presentation.
  • BEN -3.64% broker downgrades.
  • TYR -5.00% sellers back
  • MGX -4.90% Koolan update on fire damage.
  • ELD -4.04% Chinese beef ban?
  • BRN -4.52% follows 4DS down.
  • SZL -15.85% no sizzle on results.
  • WZR -8.42% result date announced.
  • EOS -8.60% continues lower.
  • Speculative Stock of the Day: Cobre (CBE) +66.67% additional copper intersections at Ngami copper project.

IN THE NEWS

  • Goodman Group (GMG) full-year operating EPS 81c, in line with consensus. Revenue $2.04bn vs consensus $2.03bn. Dividend of 30c, expected to remain steady for FY23.
  • Tassal (TGR) agrees to improved $5.23 takeover by Cooke.
  • Sezzle (SZL) Q2 EPS -US$0.07 vs year-ago -US$0.10.
  • Sims (SGM) full-year underlying EBIT $756.1m vs consensus $758.3m and guidance $750-770m. Guides soft market conditions in FY23.
  • BHP Group (BHP) full-year underlying EPS (cont ops) US$4.21 vs consensus US$4.31. Total free cash flow US$25.22bn vs consensus US$21.72bn. Dividend US$1.75, fully franked includes an additional US$0.60 above the 50% minimum payout policy vs estimates of US$1.31-2.15c.
  • Seven West Media (SWM) full-year underlying profit $200.8m vs consensus $192.6m. Announce on-market share buyback for up to 10% of issued capital.
  • James Hardie Industries (JHX) Q1 adjusted net income US$154.3m vs consensus US$163.5m. Revenue US$1.00B vs consensus US$969.6m. In FY23 sees adjusted net income between US$730-780m vs prior guidance US$740-820m.
  • Speculation Santos (STO) will announce overseas divestment plans alongside FY earnings which are due tomorrow.
  • Challenger (CGF) full-year normalised profit $472m vs guidance upper end of $430-480m and consensus $471.2m. Full year dividend 23c (fully franked) vs consensus 23c. In FY23 sees normalised profit in the range of $485-535m. Since announcing the bank acquisition in December 2020, market conditions have changed, and it is becoming apparent the bank is unlikely to realise the expected benefits in the timeframe anticipated. As a result, Challenger is reviewing the bank’s position within the group and has commenced a strategic review of the business. Has entered a definitive agreement with Apollo to establish a joint venture.
  • Temple & Webster Group (TPW) full-year profit $12.0m vs year-ago $14.0m and consensus $5.4m. Revenue $426.3m vs consensus $431.9m. EBITDA margin % guidance (including The Build investment) for FY23 upgraded to 3-5% vs prior 2-4%. Inventory levels heading into FY23 remain strong with all metrics (ageing, A$ value, GMROI) in line or better than internal targets. Timing of lockdowns during FY22 will make year on year growth comparisons volatile during H1. Trading is ahead of internal estimates, and month-to-month seasonality suggests a return to double digit growth during FY23 once TPW finishes lapping COVID lockdowns from the year before.

ECONOMIC NEWS/ BOND MARKETS

  • A weekly gauge of consumer confidence put together by ANZ and market research company Roy Morgan increased 4.9% last week, but remains in negative territory.
  • The sentiment index registered 84.2 points for the week, well below its long-term average of 112.2 points based on data stretching back three decades.
  • ANZ is  predicting Sydney prices to fall by a further 6% next year, for a total of 20% drop peak-to-trough,

RBA meeting minutes (Click here for full statement)

  • Considered the risks to the global outlook, which were skewed to the downside
  • The behaviour of household spending continued to present a key source of uncertainty for the outlook.
  • Many households had also built up large financial buffers and the saving rate remained higher than prior to the pandemic
  • RBA expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions over the months ahead, but it is not on a pre-set path.
  • It is seeking to do this in a way that keeps the economy on an even keel. The path to achieving this balance is a narrow one and subject to considerable uncertainty.
  • The size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the Board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market, including the risks to the outlook.

ASIAN MARKETS

  • Too little too late – central-bank backed Financial News said Beijing should introduce new pro-growth policies at the appropriate time to keep growth within a reasonable range.
  • In a separate report the People’s Bank of China’s surprise rate cut may be the first in a series of policies to stabilize growth.
  • Heat waves and droughts are having an effect on power generation in China with hydro seeing shortages and affecting Sichuan province.

US AND EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • European markets heading for a stronger open.
  • Chipmakers are bracing for a particularly severe shift in coming months, when a record-setting sales surge is threatening to give way to the worst decline in a decade or more. It is not all one-way traffic for chip makers. Recently Micron, the US’s biggest maker of memory chips, told investors demand was fading.
  • Authentic Brands in talks to buy Ted Baler for GBP200m. Darktrace a cybersecurity company is in talks with Thomas Bravo.
  • Elliott fund managers sell Softbank stake as it loses faith with Masayoshi Son.
  • Big Short hero Michael Burry has sold all his stocks except a small investment in Geo Group which invests in prisons.
  • First grain ship to depart Ukraine since war appears to dock in Syria.
  • Apple tells employees to return to work 3 days a week from September.
  • Inflation in Nigeria hits 17-year high.
  • The Satanic Verses hits the top of the Amazon Best Seller list.

And finally….

Clarence

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