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Glenn Stevens!!!Not happy Jan!!!


Morning sports fans,

As the dust settles on the budget and the Aussie dollar piles on the pounds, equity markets are tettering on the precipice of a big move I reckon…..just not sure which way..certainly some risks have been felled ..The budget risk gone,the UK election risk gone,rate cuts tick BUT for those of you paying attention the big action is happening in bond markets at the moment with the German 10 year bund yield roaring from 0.60% to 0.72% big things are afoot…the bubble bond market is a very crowded trade and there are signs that a few players are leaving early..they may be the smart ones…certainly they are the highly geared ones…US ten year notes yielding 2.29% after falling to 2.19% earlier after the retail sales figures..apparently its all weather related ..that and rioters don’t spend ..they prefer to loot.

The range for our little market has been 5650 to 6000 and so it still is so the balance of probability would suggest that we are in for some positive days ahead especially given the ho hum nature of Gerry Harvey’s first budget. God that guy is good…not sure why he got Jokin Joe to read the speech though but suppose he has to give him something to do and make it look like the government is actually worth spending money on…anyway the budget will undoubtedly spark a surge at Officeworks and Hardly Normal,I noticed too that yesterday an art gallery in Sydney’s East was extolling the virtues of buying some expensive tax deductible art for your office wall…let the rorts begin….living on the Northern Beaches I am surrounded by tradies! Not a bad thing and now they all get a new UTE to boot!!

I do remain sceptical of the rallies and see a sideways like period over the winter here but expect volatility to increase all the same…ups and downs equal opportunity but we may still be 5700 in the spring..

Gold did well last night…shame about the dollar though!

Expect some weakness today after the bounce we have had but nothing too serious…Dow down a smidge..Iron Ore down a bit ,Euro Markets down too and dollar at 81 something…

Idea of the Day

For all those NAB shareholders out there ,you will be getting your rights issue application forms in the post next week…I would urge you to take up your rights..if you cannot muster the readies necessary then the next best thing is to sell some of them or the head stock to pay for it..I can help with that …the recent capital raising has really helped sentiment on this one too and three bucks worth of divs in next 13 months is not to be sneezed at..probably explained why they have held up (gone up) so well…maybe the momentum will ease once they are ex div…but new CEO is doing all the right things and before the others too…bodes well for the future…

And don’t forget that BHP trades ex South32 on Monday…will be interesting to see what they trade at and it may provide an opportunity to buy them at a cheap price..

Things to make me go mmmmmm!!!

Resmed!!! Crikey this is going to be nasty today…results overnight that using the piggy mask actually increase your risk of death in the Chronic Heart Failure trials, will be a body blow for this company..down 15% last night in the US and they will be in damage control going forward …bad results coupled with the rising dollar are a death nail for these guys …expect more than 15% to be knocked off…shock and awe..once the dust settles though it is good to remember that this does not affect their main business of Sleep Apnea machines and was only a trail in patients with Chronic Heart Failure and there was no real sales growth factored into the company for this but it is still disappointing and the cattle will be spooked!!!

Was asked on TV yesterday about REA and other high flyers like FLT…the problem they have is they are expensive and the love affair can end badly when it goes wrong..hell hath no fury like a analyst scorned…like all relationships it takes a long time to get the trust back if ever..FLT seems to be wining the love back but REA has some way to go especially given that Domain is making inroads into their lunch…I was always of the opinion that Domain and other FXJ digital businesses had huge promise if they could work out how to run them properly…they seem on the right track…especially given the property boom an dthe ensuing media rah rah in the paper every day..I love it when people win stuff at an auction…its like winning on Ebay..brings out the competitive spirit in us all..always nice to win..at whatever long term cost!

Gotta love it when a crisis in the budget is so easily solved…just stop calling it one…tell everyone you are happy with the levels and adjust(lie) about the settings going forward..yesterdays lowest wage increase for 20 years already show what a schmoozle the assumptions are….dollar at 81 wont help either!!

jokinbh joe

So why is the dollar at 81 cents ..well it looks like the US isn’t quite such a miracle economy afer all and there are now doubts on whether Janet will raise rates after all in September …that is consensus…seems that she has gota  tough call to make…

GDP figures for the Euro zone showed expansion of 0.4% for the first quarter, below expectations, but a better number than in the U.S

German growth stalled last night but ze French are doing better so that is something…Zombieland is as ever patchy but it is improving albeit at a glacial pace…still summer is coming and the Brits will be out in force in the Med paying for their entertainment with cash as the machine ‘no workie’…ah gotta bless the tax dodgers!!

I am still trying to get my head around the Greek situation…they raided an IMF contingency fund to pay the interest on the loans to the Troika(including the IMF) so they could access more funds from the Troika to pay their bills…call me stupid but this seems madness…pay interest so you can borrow more money to pay more interest to borrow more money!!!My head is spinning!!!

The ultimate mobile asset when things go to custard…cars!!In Greece car sales were up 47% in April!!!!

God do I want to short the Chinese stock market!!

Tough school in North Korea as a Defence chief was executed for falling asleep at  a meeting…not just shot but shot with anti aircraft weapons…Kim sure doesn’t mess about…now all 7 pallbearers at his dad’s funeral have been wasted!

After the moves from WES to install Michael Chaney as Chairman there are now calls for Roger the Dodger Corbett to come back to WOW…

Good to see some sales growth from MYR yesterday …think it will not last…just do a quick tour of any Myers store and see how many people are in there buying stuff…once you get away from women’s fashion and cosmetics its a ghost town…need a fresh hand on the tiller..have been saying it for some time now..but increasing competition from Sephora and others will dent the cosmetics game!!

And finally…..lovely letter from an Irish mum to her son..

Dear Son,

Just a few lines to let you know I’m still alive.

I’m writing this letter slowly because I know you can’t read fast.

We are all doing very well.

You won’t recognise the house when you get home – because we have moved.

Your dad read in the newspaper that most accidents happen within 20 miles from your home, so we moved 25 miles to Wexford.

I won’t be able to send you the address because the last family that lived here took the house numbers when they moved so that they wouldn’t have to change their address.

This place is really nice. It even has a washing machine. I’m not sure it works so well though: last week I put a load in and pulled the chain and haven’t seen them since.

Your father’s got a really good job now. He’s got 500 men under him. He’s cutting the grass at the cemetery.

Your sister Mary had a baby this morning but I haven’t found out if  it’s a boy or a girl, so I don’t know whether you are an auntie or an uncle.

Your brother Tom is still in the army. He’s only been there a short while and they’ve already made him a court martial!

Your Uncle Patrick drowned last week in a vat of whiskey in the Dublin Distillery. Some of his workmates tried to save him but he fought them off bravely. They cremated him and it took three days to put out the fire.

I’m sorry to say that your idiot cousin Seamus was arrested while riding his bicycle last week. They are charging him with dope peddling.

I went to the doctor on Thursday and your father went with me. The doctor put a small tube in my mouth and told me not to talk for ten minutes. Your father offered to buy it from him.

The weather isn’t bad here. It only rained twice this week, first for three days and then for four days. Monday was so windy one of the chickens laid the same egg four times.

We had a letter from the undertaker. He said if the last payment on your grandmother’s plot wasn’t paid in seven days, up she comes.

About that coat you wanted me to send you, your Uncle Stanley said it would be too heavy to send in the mail with the buttons on, so we cut them off and put them in the pockets.

John locked his keys in the car yesterday.. We were really worried because it took him two hours to get me and your father out.

Three of your friends went off a bridge in a pick-up truck. Ralph was driving. He wound down the window and swam to safety.Your other two friends were in the flatbed at the back. They drowned because they couldn’t get the tailgate down.

There isn’t much more news at this time. Nothing much has happened.


P.S. I was going to send you some money but I had already sealed the envelope.

Have a great Thursday



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