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Morning sports fans,

 

Dow down 80,Euro down small, Oil up a tad ,Iron Ore up nearly 3%..Joe has called the bottom!!!

 

Aussie dollar tanks!!!75.85!!

 

So close and yet so far…the rally died yesterday as Chinese numbers disappointed…let’s face it when the Asian markets are going gangbusters why bother with the ASX200(Shanghai up another 1.5% yesterday!!!!)…only really for locals at the moment and the theme of yield is still strong in this one Luke..

US reporting season is shaping up to be disappointing…the combo of the weather and the high USD looks set to keep the US Bull market in check…better places to be for sure…maybe the bubble of HK and Shanghai is the way to go…scary moves over there…the catalyst was the opening of the trade bridge between HK and Shanghai which has just opened Pandorras Box…(best movie quote ever springs to mind!!!)

i knew

“I knew a girl called Pandorra once…….”

And so once again we fail to take out the 6000 level…for the chartist in me that seems significant and feel that we are running out of time as we nudge up against the budget…still one big push…it seems a bit like climbing Everest siege style…establish a base camp ,climb high acclimatise then back down for rest before the summit push…it is Himalayan climbing season after all…

everestroutemap

Idea of the Day

 

Now I am of a vintage that remembers the 87 crash vividly..I was a trader in London on the options floor..the run up to the crash was eerily similar to today..of course all the bright young things are oblivious to this scenario and are happy to repeat the mantra “it is different this time”(they said that then too!!!)….well unfortunately it never is..human emotions(or maybe computer emotions) drive the market..fear and greed my friends..we are in the greed phase no doubt about that and whilst there is free money being splashed everywhere it’s like being in a closed booth with an air jet and money being poured in the top and trying to grab as much as possible…until they turn the wind off…and then???/Anyway the thing that saved a lot of investors back in 87 and subsequent pullbacks was having a  few sleep at night puts…Puts are things that go up when the market goes down..it’s a bit like insurance..we all have insurance for our cars,lives,houses etc so why not shares…well trouble is it costs money and so investors feel it is unnecessary…HOWEVER it could be the best money you spend when the proverbial hits the fan…now that may not be for many a long moon and the market may be 7000 by then but ask yourself..do you feel lucky?..well do you?…If you feel that some insurance is a sleep at night strategy worth pursuing then am happy to talk about costs etc and how to do it…

Things to make me go mmmmmm!!!

 

Good to see Peter Costello having a go at Jokin Joe….very edifying as Joe fires back…this one will run and run…gonna be a long month til the budget!!!

The Greek exit looms large again in the great game of bluff that is going on…whatever happens the sad fact of life is the Greeks will NEVER pay back any of the debt they have got…their economy is toast…if it was a stock it would be put into receivership and a private equity player would strip the good stuff out and leave the rubbish and refloat the company a few years later all tarted up and make a squillion..but its not..its real people in a corrupt and massively inefficient country….this issue will rumble around forever!!

Saw a movie called Interstellar last night…if there is anyone out there who has the foggiest what it all meant please don’t hesitate to get in touch!!!!

I love a good conspiracy story and from my desk it does look like the Worlds’ central banks are colluding to get asset prices up….as the US takes it foot off the throttle Eurotrash land takes up the mantle.Japan is printing money so fast it’s scary and now China seems to be heading that way…hopefully no one will notice the US exit the program as they are looking east..of course the ultimate game is the low currency designed to lift inflation and exports…that is the prize..

the prize

UK elections looming and the Conservatives are neck and neck with Labour…should go right down to the wire and a hung parliament is a distinct possibility…never a good thing…

FMG wants to squeeze the lemon a little more…it has asked its workers to work a two-week on, one-week off from a current schedule of eight days on, six days off.

Australia’s oil product imports in 2015 are expected to grow at the fastest pace in at least seven years as it shuts another ageing refinery, putting it on track to become Asia-Pacific’s second biggest gasoline importer by the end of the decade.

Chinese exports, in renminbi terms, plunged 14.6 per cent in the 12 months to March 2015 missing expectations for an 8.2 per cent gain.

M2 Group is keeping its sights on acquisition targets in New Zealand after paying $245 million for the nation’s third-largest internet service provider, Call Plus.

The FT reported that Greece is looking at a debt default…should make life interesting!!Apparently it has decided to withhold €2.5bn of payments due to the International Monetary Fund in May and June if no agreement is struck.

When the game of chicken goes wrong…

chicken-game

And finally…..

 

Before going duck shooting Chester says to his mate Earl,

 

“I’ll send my dog out to see if there are any ducks out on the pond.

If there aren’t many ducks out there, I’m not going hunting”

So he sends the dog out to the pond. The dog comes back and barks

twice.

 

Chester says “Well I’m not going to go out. He only saw two ducks out

there”.  Earl says “You’re going to take the dog’s barks for the truth?”

 

Earl doesn’t believe it, so he goes to look for himself.

When he gets back he says “I don’t believe it. There really are only two ducks out

there!

 

Where did you get that dog?”

 

Chester says “Well, I got him from the breeder up the road. If you

want one, you can get one from him”.   So Earl goes to the breeder and says he wants a dog

like the one his friend Chester has.

 

The breeder obliges and Earl brings the dog home, tells it to go out

and look for ducks.

 

Minutes later the dog returns shaking its head with a stick in its

mouth, and starts humping Earl’s leg.

 

Outraged, Earl takes the dog back to the breeder and says “This dog

is a fraud. I want my money back!”

 

The breeder asks Earl what the dog did.

 

So Earl tells him that when he sent the dog out to look for ducks, it

came back shaking its head with a stick in its mouth, and started

humping his leg.

 

The breeder says “Earl, dogs can’t talk………..

He was trying to tell you there are more f—-ng ducks out there than you can shake a stick at”.

 

Have a great day!!

Clarence

XXXXX

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