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Morning sports fans,

bear grouchy smaller

Today could be the day when the market hits that 6000 level.Equity markets around the globe are at or near all time highs as the free money continues to be put to use buying assets. And who can blame them. I know that if I give my teenage son loads of free money he won’t stick it in the bank, start a business and employ other teenage kids..No he will do what all boys do..spend it on wine, women and song…Who can blame him,there is plenty more where that came from right?And so too are hedge funds ,Mums and Dads in Shanghai, Japanese punters and Euro trash. Best thing since Fried Rice!All jolly good fun…until it ends..plenty of people have been predicting the end for years now..doom and gloom merchants and economists that have predicted the last 15 crashes which never happened.Now at some stage it will end and end badly as the whole thing unravels,but there seems no one is prepared to leave the party before then, hoping against all hope that they can exit stage left pursued by a bear just in time.Now we know that is never going to happen , we all think we are so smart.Well aret we?Anyway for the time being the market is happy to ignore deep underlying issues and fullspeed ahead and damn the torpedoes..

In all this euphoria and everything is awesome we have little old Australia.Not doing too well and a long way away from that 7000 ish high back in November 2007 when Kev07 was elected. Ah the halcyon days.Anyway since then politics has gone toxic and as we head into the Abbutt/Joe second budget its going to have more leaks than a U Boat being depth charged.This is make or break for these guys and business and the community will not be impressed if they repeat 2014.Not that they got anything done in 2014 budget just upset everyone with its lack of balance.In the end the public will accept tough decisions if they are fair and explained why they have to be made.Not just picking on easy targets cos they don’t sponsor a party!

US reporting season will be an interesting window into the effects of the higher USD.We know what it did for our manufacturing..what manufacturing I hear you say? So far Alcoa has hardly enthralled us and the consensus is not good for the profit outlook.

Anyway 6000 today or tomorrow…the fear index is back down to 12.5 in the US so what could possibly go wrong

Idea of the Day

I believe that we have seen the worst of the oil price dive..now I know there are some predicting more dire prices to come but with summer approaching in the US and driving season plus a better Zombie economy(didn’t take much did it,which begs the question why they didnt go earlier!!!) it might just be enough..plus the drill count in the US had a huge drop as storage tanks fill and production starts to slow. The price war will continue between the Saudis and the US shale industry but they will not want to cut their own throat with a Janbiya ,so equilibrium will return ,maybe a little south of here but not at the lows predicted by some…sooooo…oil stocks may be worth a look..OSH and even STO spring to mind but WPL,KAR and ORG

Things to make me go MMMMM!!!

Mrs Clinton has announced she will run for President.Big surprise ?Not!!!

Here is a big number…$2 trillion worth of deals have been announced in 2015 so far!!!!Another reason why everyone loves MQG…

Crude oil rose  with WTI up $1.08 a barrel to $51.84 it 2%, amid news that the weekly oil rig count had its largest drop in a month, leading to speculation producers are easing back on production. Energy stocks back in favour…may be a great deal that Shell did on BG.

The fall out from the Iron Ore price falls continue…Atlas is still in suspense as they announce that they been forced it to stop mining and crushing at its Mt Webber project this week, and that it would stop mining at its Abydos and Wodgina mines by the end of the month before ceasing exports. It’s now over to the twitchy bankers who control their future. More job losses for the company and their suppliers like QUB and MCS.Still too early to call the bottom of the mining services sector I reckon..

Fortescue Metals Group is pledging to maintain its iron ore production at current levels of 165 million tonnes a year, rather than expand by the 180 million to 200 million tonnes possible with no further investment. FMG founder and chairman Andrew Forrest told The Australian Financial Review the company would only expand into a rising market – unlike its competitors at Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.

The Elders China premium meat business has turned a profit for the first time, prompting chief executive Mark Allison to begin plans to replicate the same model in Vietnam and Indonesia, as the broader Elders business delivers a “quite solid” result for the first six months of 2014-15.

Is this a bubble like 87…China’s biggest fireworks making is changing from explosions to internet financing..why wouldn’t you!!!Panda Fireworks is now in the Peer to Peer lending business on the net!! This will end badly for some in China.

A 21 year old wins the US Masters!!!Well done indeed sir.

From the Financial Times in London…“sales of homes worth more than £2m have dropped by 80 per cent in the past year.”… “It is like the 1970s again, when waves of wealthy people left Britain and it was a disaster.”So where the hell are they going???And more importantly why are they leaving…well it seems that the Labour Party is partly to blame as it talks tough on Capital Gains tax and Domiciles for these guys..the UK election is looming and its pretty close..maybe a hung parliament and the UKIP in the box seat…anyway its enough to put the fear of God up Johnny Foreigner and the Ruskies

And finally…I know some of these are old but none the less brilliant…enjoy..its Monday after all!!

A buddy of mine has just told me he’s getting it on with his

girlfriend and her twin.

I said “How can you tell them apart?” – He said “Her brother’s got a moustache.”

Being a modest man, when I checked into my hotel on a recent trip, I

said to the lady at the registration desk, “I hope the porn channel in

my room is disabled.” – To which she replied, “No, it’s regular porn,

you sick bastard.

The Red Cross knocked at our door and asked if we could help towards

the floods in Pakistan. I said we would love to, but our garden hose

only reaches the driveway.

Have a great Monday.

Clarence

XXXX

everything is awesopme

Get a Global take on things at www.ntmarkets.com

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