Tags

, , , , ,

Morning sports fans,

Sorry about the Stones quote corruption above….the Times editor famously wrote an article in the 60’s about Mick Jagger and his drug charges….sure you all knew that?

william

 

As the world ,or at least the financial markets, wait for the latest brainwave from Dr Do Nothing Draghi ,it’s time to reflect on how successful it has all been so far. We have certainly staved off Armageddon as the Euro crisis has waned and modest growth is evident in the US…at least..certainly after chucking the amount of money the Fed has printed at the problem you would hope that things would improve. The real issue though is that Governments have been content to sit back and hope that the Central Banks can solve their problems..the political will to restructure in Europe is sadly lacking and poor old Super Mario needs some help…to this end I was talking to a guy on Sky this morning in the US who suggested that he would throw the kitchen sink at the 19m Unemployed problem and the no growth/ no inflation scenario..I suspect he is all talk and no trousers as we used to say in London…market is expecting the Kitchen Sink…. I am expecting the washing up bowl!!!

 

So far in June we have seen the market pull back modestly despite some pretty darn good GDP numbers yesterday..3.5% for the year..crisis what crisis!!Trouble is the growth is all Mining 80% of our GDP is mining…it was a golden quarter last quarter too, as house price fever took hold..be interesting to chart house prices against the TV ratings seasons…the Block and all those shows must feed into the nations psyche…or is it vice versa..anyway higher house prices give everyone warm and fuzzy feelings so they go and spend on something..good for GDP..works a treat in UK,US and other Western Countries..no surprise that France and others in ClubMed struggle still then..bit of an oversupply…it’s the house price ATM stupid,…

 

Expect a modest recovery today led by Iron Stocks..but in waiting mode..come on Godot, where the bloody hell are you?????

 

 

Idea of the Day-Caution I have Luke.

 

I remain firmly of the view that this current low volume, give me risk ,complacency is dangerous…the US volumes are 5% less than Xmas week…the VIX (fear index) has not traded this many days below 12 since 2007!!Average is around 20 and here we are at 12!!!Really?..it cannot last!!

 

Good news last night for OSH which I have long been a  fan of in the space..production coming sooner rather than later …our target is upped…not that anyone cares but this one is moving from explrer to builder to now producer..looks like the transition is going well…cash will be pouring in …if you are looking for gas exposure

 

Oil Search: has delivered a welcome increase in production guidance and tipped lower costs at the early start-up of the ExxonMobil-run Papua New Guinea LNG. Oil Search added about three million barrels of oil equivalent to 2014 production guidance, boosting a recently upgraded company forecast of 14.5-17 million barrels to 17-20 million barrels.

 

Update on LYC..new CEO today …positive news..wouldn’t be able to attract a new one unless they thought they could do better!!And news yesterday that China is looking to clean up its rare earths act..maybe the worm has turned..I bought some for my account the other day at 14…fingers crossed but this one is chock full of potential..

 

Maybe it’s time to look at the dogs? They all have their day!!

 

 

Things to make me go mmmmm!

 

There are currently 8 IPOs live with money being sucked out of the markets around the world…on the plus side Takeover activity is huge..ah 87 again..was so much fun..another takeover yesterday for Australand..surprise!!!

 

We are apparently in a transition economy…transition to what..there isn’t much left on the non-mining side to transition to!!!except a financial services led economy based on super…

 

Everyone is an expert on Iron Ore these days..bounced last night2%…naturally I am an expert…it seems to me though the big miners are pumping out stuff as much as they can and to hell with the price..volume at all costs..demand has been swamped..maybe the big guys are trying hard to drive the little guys out of the game ..wouldn’t be the first time..sam walsh has targeted $100..maybe its time for that bounce in Iron Ore stocks then.

 

Everyone loves an Aussie bank..what’s not to like..great profits ,great dividends and the housing boom to last forever..interesting how competitive it has now become on the home loans front as some banks will cut their headline rate by 1.1% on loans over $1m if you have 20% deposit…let’s face it doesn’t everyone in Sydney have $1m mortgage anyway..buys a shoe box at the end of the runway!….and that’s Badgerys Creek!!

 

The world’s top 40 mining companies – including Australian giants BHP Billiton, Fortescue Metals, Newcrest Mining and Rio Tinto – have seen profits by plunge by a staggering 72 per cent in the last 12 months to $20 billion, the lowest level in a decade. However in a sign of the times, dividends almost tripled from $15 tbillion o $42 billion over the last five years.Meanwhile global airline profits are at an all-time high!!

 

ADP payrolls data was weaker with 179,000 jobs added against estimates of 215,000.ISM number saved the Dow as it hit another record..16th this year!!

 

Australia’s largest developer, Stockland, has been thrown off-guard with a surprise $2.6 billion rival cash bid for its takeover target Australand, launched by a Singapore-listed company that is controlled by Thailand’s third-richest man.

 

iSentia (ISD)  Debuts on ASX today; IPO price of A$2.04.

 

More on IPOs, the Mathletics float doesn’t seem to be making a lot of sense at a PE of between 31 to 38.7 times forecast 2014-2015 earnings and a dividend yield that would test your ability to work in fractions! Avoid like a maths test!

 

Even John Howard thinks Phoney Tony has gone too far!!!

309343-john-howard

 

Is this the canary singing!!!I use Amaysim and get 4GB of data for 10 bucks!!!They are using the Optus network……so Optus has come out with its opening strike with demonstrably more attractive data deals and the industry is waiting to see whether Telstra and Vodafone will respond.

 

Coal crash lands in some parts of China…Economic growth in the northern Chinese city of Taiyuan, Shanxi province, has crashed to zero from 12 percent in one year.

 

From the mouth of one of the Talking head finance experts on CNBC.. Steve Liesman.. “debt is always pointed out as a negative thing, when in fact debt is the great bridge between working hard and playing hard in this country.” Then Liesman really hangs himself, “this country has been built on consumer debt” So consider this..

 

It took the United States 193 years (1789?1981) to aggregate $1 trillion of government debt.

 

It then took 20 years (1981?2001) to add an additional $4.8 trillion and,

 

in the last 10 years (2001?2011), a whopping $9.8 trillion has been added to the federal debt.

 

Looks like they are doing well then!!

 

And finally…..

 

A blonde girl gets a job as a physical education teacher in a high school for 16 year olds.

She notices a boy in the field standing alone, while all the other kids are running around having fun. She takes pity on him and decides to speak to him.

‘You ok?’ she says.

‘Yes,’ he says…

‘You can go and play with the other kids you know’ she says.

‘It’s best I stay here.’ he says.

‘Why’s that sweetie?’ says the blonde.

The boy says: “Because I’m the bloody goal keeper!!!”

 

 

Have a great Thursday back on the radio at 12.20 today…Newcastle you are so lucky!!

 

Clarence

 

XXXX

 

Any financial product advice contained in this email is general financial product advice only and does not take into account any one person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, before acting on any financial product advice in this email, you should consider, with or without the assistance of an independent adviser, the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Get a Global take on things at www.ntmarkets.com

Get a Global take on things at http://www.ntmarkets.com

 

Follow me on twitter @henryj007

 

Advertisements