Just a quickie today as I have a meeting but it’s all about the Crimea, Gold ,wheat and oil…
News that Russia has issued an ultimatum to the Ukraine have spiced things up a bit…gonna send in rasPutin…anyway the West continues to scramble for a suitable punishment ..withdrawing all the para-olympians doesn’t seem to be a very real threat…G8 expulsion…crikey, I mean who would want to be in an economic club that includes Italy anyway…China isn’t even in the G8…
Think the market is already punishing Russia without Obama doing anything…their stock market tumbled, their currency was in ruble and they had to sell Gold to try to raise some cash…that’s the problems with superpowers these days they are broke and beholden to financial markets good will…no war without funding from hedge funds..
So what’s the effect for our market…sentiment mainly at the moment and the gold and oil price rises…Having raced ahead in February I have been urging some caution..still do…eventually the whole Crimea thing will fizz…in the end the Russian already held Sevastopol just on a lease ..now they have bought the freehold…bigger issue for Ukraine is who is going to bail them out…they need some cash fast…if they default then we could see some more Zombieland downside..
So what is the plan…..
Though at the end of the day the markets have needed a break..they wanted an excuse..Ukraine is that excuse…will it derail the global economy? …probably not ..may just mean more free money for longer and less Russians hogging the best beaches in the Med…Volatility is a friend and should be used to buy good dividend paying shares with good business models at good prices…
Idea of the Day-YOW
Here’s an odd one…Yowie Group..who remembers this one ….Cadburys used to make a chocolate much like Kinder Surprise called a Yowie..anyway Cadburys sold the brand and for some years it has been plodding along…not very successfully I might add…but all that is changing with a new man steering the company and a massive US expansion planned as wal Mart have fallen in love with the Yowie…had a huge run in the last few months though and they are raising funds at 70 cents to ensure they can expand quickly..they have also launched an online world for their Yowies at www.yowieworld.com and this is designed as both a branding exercise and a profit centre…they use contract manufacturers who shoulder most of the financial burden and clip the ticket on the choccy on the way through…the numbers are huge ..quality toy and good choccy…Herseys in the US and Cadburys recipe here…Lindt in Europe…anyway expect to see some short term weakness as the capital raising is bedded down but suspect that it will be transitory before the ramp up begins…one for the brave investor with a sweet tooth but interesting model and with Wal Mart on board will be the make or break of this baby…
Hope a few of you jumped on board the DNA express now at 1.21…despite Russia!
Things to make me go mmmmm!!
Nice work Tessa… Beverages supplier Coca-Cola Amatil will pay former chief executive Terry Davis $150,000 a year for three years in exchange for him not working for competitors in Australia.
RBA meeting today…no change to rates…don’t expect a change for a long while…inflation butting up against its target and housing flying making it tough to cut rates…
A leading economist formerly with the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada has called it pretty well….. “The analytical underpinnings of what we [mainstream economists] do are actually pretty shaky…I’m becoming more and more convinced that all of the models we use are basically useless… We’ve got the potential to do so much harm by not getting the creation of fiat credit and money right.”
Seems that the UK has concerns about sanctions on Russia..bearing in mind that Premier league leaders(and my team)Chelsea are owned by a Russian as well ,they also suspect that as London is overrun already with Russians then any sanctions may herald a mass withdrawal of Russian Mafia money in the nations’ capital…One of the problems is the e- president that was voted in was deposed by the mob who installed their own government..hardly a democratic process so it gets hard to bleat when Russia steps in to protect their naval base in the Baltic..
The QANTAS debacle continues to play out in Canberra…never has a CEO destroyed staff morale and caused as much wingeing and whining in Canberra since the Mexican ran Telstra..
And finally…a quiz for the day..who said this…
“The Budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled,
public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be
tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be
curtailed, lest we will become bankrupt. People must again learn to work
instead of living on public assistance.”
Thought for the day
It’s ok to let a fool kiss you,
But don’t let a kiss fool you.
Have a great Tuesday
Cicero said that in 55BC…bet you though it was Uncle Joe…way ahead of his time that Cicero dude..