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Morning all,

Those were the days!!!

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Back in 1979/80 the Russians invaded Afghanistan …they held an Olympics and Gold went through the roof! Fast forward to 2014 and Russia has now invaded the Ukraine…they held an Olympics and Gold has gone nowhere…very sanguine about the whole Crimea/Russia thing…of course the US is threatening all manner of sanctions…problem is they cannot afford a war and Rasputin knows it….blown their budget in Afghanistan!!!Feels a bit familiar really…anyway as the West tries to cobble together something that wills care the Russians I have come up with an idea…a Justin Bieber Tour…that would teach them to mess with Obama….

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Hear John Kerry (not sure what his job is) talking about how 19th century it was to invade countries to protect their assets there…and he should know!!

The markets so far have taken things in their stride…not sure if that will last…anyway we shall see but I think we may see some interest in Gold going forward again…we shall see.

I am finding it really hard to get too excited about the market here as it goes ex dividend the reason to buy becomes less and less…yeah I know there is all this free money flying around the world but as we head into the Budget leaking season I suspect that confidence may take a hit…we have tried now a couple of times to bust through that 5450 level to no avail..not usually a good sign…despite the SPI up nearly 30 don’t expect too much today…I never do!

Idea of the Day

Everyone is so bullish…bad economic numbers from the US are blamed on the weather…and give the Fed a reason not to taper too aggressively..bad numbers from China are seemingly ignored…Ukrainian potential to default, self-destruct or set off a superpower military event, harsh May budget all add up to a jittery market I reckon…wouldn’t be a bad time to look at some PUTS…these babies make you money when the market goes down…they allow you to sleep at night..setting up an option account is real easy if you already have an account..I can get my people to talk to your people and sort it out!!

So looking at some puts…I would suggest looking at the XJO 5300 May Puts at around 87 points(Fridays close)..they cost 870 bucks a contract…to give you some idea if we dropped to 5200 in the next month they would double roughly!

Always nice to be able to sleep at night and if you have a large index kinda portfolio might be worth taking out some small insurance… remember at the beginning of February we were 5100!!!

Things to make me go mmmmmmm!!

It’s Oscars night…go Cate…and Catherine!

Man City won the League Cup…think that should do them!

Ex-dividend today including BHP Billiton, Lend Lease, Pacific Brands and Worley Parsons.

National Australia Bank has cut a range of fixed home loan interest rates, as competition in the mortgage market heats up. The lender this morning trimmed the package deal on its two-year fixed loan by 5 basis points to 4.84 per cent, equalling the Commonwealth Bank and Westpac.

Harvey Norman’s strategy of owning many of the complexes it operates underpinned its solid half-year profit, the retail giant said yesterday. Strong property revaluation adjustments saw the company deliver a $159 million profit for the six months to December 31, a 60 per cent increase on the same period the year before.

SEEK’s CEO Andrew Bassat says the group’s emerging market investments could experience some “short-term pain” from higher interest rates and deleveraging over the coming years but it remains focused on a longer-term goal to generate substantially more revenues from abroad than in Australia.

 

Woolworths has warned that fragile consumer confidence could take a hit from a tough federal budget and rising unemployment, as the group met market expectations yesterday with a 14.5 per cent increase in half-year net profit to $1.32 billion.

The biggest monthly gains for February were posted by Arabica coffee, which rallied 40 per cent on fears of crop damage from Brazil’s drought.

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Don’t forget that Russia supplies Ukraine with its gas at discount rates and Gazprom(RasPutin’s mates) supplied about 30 percent of Europe’s gas last year. So they do have a good hand to play..Ukraine will suffer big time when Gas prices rise…and so will Zombieland when the stockpiles run out and the price rise hits growth..

Terrorism is a face to face thing in China it seems..none of this leave a bomb somewhere and walk away….

Chinese PMI gauge falls to its lowest level in 8 months and the US GDP seems to be being downgraded..of course it must be weather related…

And finally……as it’s Monday two today…

A Guy stuck his head into a barbershop and asked, ‘How long before I can get a haircut?

The barber looked around the shop full of customers and said, ‘About 2 hours.’

The guy left.

A few days later, the same guy stuck his head in the door and asked, ‘How long before I can get a haircut?’

The barber looked around at the shop and said, ‘About 3 hours.’

The guy left.

A week later, the same guy stuck his head in the shop and asked, ‘How long before I can get a haircut?’

The barber looked around the shop and said, ‘About an hour and a half’ .

The guy left.

The barber turned to his friend and said, ‘Hey, Bob, do me a favour , follow him and see where he goes. He keeps asking how long he has to wait for a haircut, but he never comes back.’

A little while later, Bob returned to the shop, laughing hysterically.

The barber asked, ‘So, where does he go when he leaves?’

Bob looked up, wiped the tears from his eyes and said….

‘Your house’

AND…

I rear-ended a car this morning…the start of a REALLY bad day!

 

The driver got out of the other car, and he was a DWARF!!

He looked up at me and said ‘I am NOT Happy!’

So I said, ‘Well, which one ARE you then?’

 

That’s how the fight started.

 

 

Have a great Monday

 Clarence

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Get a Global take on things at http://www.ntmarkets.com

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