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Morning all,

super mario

Best day of 2014 for the Dow as jobs figures proved a positive. The big number is tonight(Non Farm Payrolls ) but claims were down so that’s a positive and things were a little oversold. Calm returned to Zombieland with Super Mario keeping rates on hold and no news stimulus..he’s got this…12.5% unemployment…yeah he has really got it! Bank of England kept rates on hold too!

Anyway a good day yesterday on trade numbers and some bargain hunting returning especially in the banks as I suggested the other day…when all around are coming up with earnings suprises to the downside isn’t it nice to know that the banks won’t really surprise either way..may disappoint a little but won’tt get 25% whacked off in a day!!Unlike some…same with TLS…three certainties in life…Death Taxes and banks!..oh and nurses but that’s a different story!!

So the SPI is showing up 35 to start..maybe but I think we will see some caution in front of the big US jobs numbers tonight…and we did have a great day yesterday..my call for 5100 then a brief test of 5000 before we bounce a little seems to be happening..got down to 5062 I think before the “rebond de chat mort”.Once we have found our new level the market will remain choppy in the short term with stock picking crucial to success..hopefully I can help with that…hopefully!

Usual suspects will be in demand today banks,BHP and RIO despite the Iron Ore price slipping and TLS will perk up..Gold help in last night as well despite the rally in the US so again some chipping away at gold companies..as I wrote yesterday everyone is so bearish Gold…everyone…usually when everyone is bullish or bearish it has the potential to surprise everyone!!!!

Unilife better in the US toop…thankfully!!!

Idea of the Day- BUY SEA following bid for AUT

 

Well, today there has been a bid for Aurora Oil and gas (AUT)..big premium for the company…and there are 7m shares short in this one..bid is $4.10 and the price last night was $2.62….it’s all about the eagle Ford Shale…does make one called SEA look pretty attractive and expect a jump on the opening..one to watch and if you are looking for Oil and Gas US exposure, SEA should be on your buy at some point list….

 

Things to make me go mmmmmm!!!

 

North American-listed Baytex Energy Corporation has lobbed a $1.84 billion cash takeover bid for Texas-focused shale player Aurora Oil & Gas, which has been unanimously recommended by the target.

 

Numbers out from Newscorp. It has still managed a $US150 million ($A168.81 million) net profit. The second quarter profit beat forecasts while the 4.0 per cent decline in revenue to $2.24 billion was expected. Australian Newspaper revenue was down 17% so no love there. The profit was attributable to areas outside the newspapers, such as its online real estate and Australia pay TV group Fox Sports businesses.

At least in the US they know how to catch insider traders! Former SAC Capital Advisors LP fund manager Mathew Martoma was found guilty in the most lucrative insider-trading scheme ever as federal prosecutors racked up a seventh conviction in their six-year probe of the hedge fund and its billionaire founder, Steven A. Cohen.

 

US data showed 4 Q productivity rose by 3.2% v forecasts at  2.8% whilst the Trade deficit widened by 12% to $38.7 billion.

 

Potential for a negative surprise on the NFP number tonight (Non-Farm Payroll)

 20140206_nfp1

 

Good to see diplomacy is alive and well with the US being accused by Russia of engineering the Ukrainian crisis….this wonderful quote from Nuland has found its way Snowden like into the media!!!Maybe she should enrol with Dale Carnegie!!!

 

“F–k the EU,” Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland said in a private phone call expressing frustration with European Union efforts to resolve Ukraine’s political turmoil.

 

Meanwhile over in Zombieland “Super Mario” said “We are willing and we are ready to act, ”just not yet! Things are complicated he said..not sure how he can cut rates from 0.25% to make any meaningful contribution…its only word and words are all he has to take your heart away!…seems the market liked the fact that he didn’t mention inflation…Inflation is half what he wants at only 0.7%…I think Europe will be ‘Stagflating’ for some time personally…and how about trying to get jobs back…just a thought…

 

Billabong announced yet another strategic review yesterday… they are considering selling their online businesses, SurfStitch.com and swell.com, as part of new chief executive Neil Fiske’s turnaround plan.Maybe sto[p making daggy clothes that Dad wears would be a better plan!Now being a Avalon resident I remember when Surfstitch started up in Mona Vale in a shop ..

Flexigroup has signalled more acquisitions are off the cards as chief Tarek Robbiati turns his focus to integrating its recent deal and hitting full-year guidance. Reporting a 20 per cent lift in first-half cash profit, Mr Robbiati said while Flexigroup had capacity to do a deal of up to $100 million, it was “not on the cards now” as it integrated the acquisition of rival Thinksmart’s Australian business.

 

Linkedin announced after hours and got Linked out! The shares fell as much as 15 percent in extended trading to $191.13 after rising 4.2 percent to $223.45 at the close in New York.This comes after Twitter fell h eavily yesterday…gotta love these “growth “ stocks …easy to grow massively from a low base but once you reach critical mass it gets harder!!Think China!

And finally…………..thanks to Barry…

The boss walked into the office one morning not knowing his zipper was down and his fly area wide open. His assistant walked up to him and said, ‘This morning when you left your house, did you close your garage door?’ The boss told her he knew he’d closed the garage door, and walked into his office puzzled by the question.

As he finished his paperwork, he suddenly noticed his fly was open, and zipped it up. He then understood his assistant’s question about his ‘garage door.’

He headed out for a cup of coffee and paused by her desk to ask, ‘When my garage door was open, did you see my Hummer parked in there?’

She smiled and said, ‘No, I didn’t All I saw was an old mini van with two flat tires..

Have a great weekend

Clarence

XXXX

Next weeks things get busy on reporting season so here’s a brief guide to who’s on the slab…

COF* (I) Coffey International Limited Industrials 10/02/14

IMF* (I) Bentham IMF Limited Financials 10/02/14

BKN* (I) Bradken Limited Industrials 11/02/14

COH (I) Cochlear Limited Health Care 11/02/14

NST (I) Northern Star Resources Ltd Materials 11/02/14

BLD (I) Boral Limited Materials 12/02/14

BWP (I) BWP Trust Financials 12/02/14

CBA (I) Commonwealth Bank of Australia Financials

CGH* (I) Calibre Group Limited Industrials 12/02/14

CLH* (I) Collection House Limited Industrials 12/02/14

CPU (I) Computershare Limited Information Technology 12/02/14

CRZ* (I) Carsales.Com Limited Information Technology 12/02/14

CSL (I) Csl Limited Health Care 12/02/14

DXS (I) Dexus Property Group Financials 12/02/14

GFF (I) Goodman Fielder Limited Consumer Staples 12/02/14

PRY* (I) Primary Health Care Limited Health Care 12/02/14

SGP (I) Stockland Financials 12/02/14

SKC (I) Skycity Entertainment Group Limited Consumer Discretionary 12/02/14

SKE (I) Skilled Group Limited Industrials 12/02/14

AQZ* (I) Alliance Aviation Services Limited Industrials 13/02/14 ASX (I)

ASX Limited Financials 13/02/14

CMW (I)Cromwell Property Group Financials 13/02/14

GMG (I) Goodman Group Financials 13/02/14

GPT (F) GPT Group Financials 13/02/

PDN (I) Paladin Energy Ltd Energy 13/02/14

RIO* (F) RIO Tinto Limited Materials 13/02/14

SGN (F) STW Communications Group LimitedConsumer Discretionary 13/02/14

TCL* (I) Transurban Group Industrials 13/02/14

TLS* (I) Telstra Corporation Limited Telecommunication Services 13/02/14

AHE (I) Automotive Holdings Group Limited Consumer Discretionary 14/02/14

CQR (I) Charter Hall Retail Reit Financials 14/02/14

GBT (I) GBST Holdings Limited Information Technology 14/02/14

MIN* (I) Mineral Resources Limited Industrials 14/02/14

MLD* (I) Maca Limited Industrials 14/02/NCM (I) Newcrest Mining Limited Materials 14/02/14

 

Any financial product advice contained in this email is general financial product advice only and does not take into account any one person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, before acting on any financial product advice in this email, you should consider, with or without the assistance of an independent adviser, the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Get a Global take on things at www.ntmarkets.com

Get a Global take on things at http://www.ntmarkets.com

 

 

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