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merry new year

Morning all,

Back in the Saddle well and truly today!!Hope everyone had a good break and although this week will be quiet still it’s a good time to start thinking about what 2014 will bring!

Finally the overseas markets celebrated the New Year with the Dow up over 100 should see us push back towards 5350 again.

I believe that despite the cracks in the system the equity markets of the world will grind higher this year..there are few alternatives ..with rates so low and looking to remain that way for some time it’s hard to not like equities that pay a good yield and offer capital growth…this was last years’ theme and in the words of the great Led Zep..The song remains the same!

Idea of the Day

 

Go back on holiday!!

Things to make me go merry New Year!

As the cold snap hits the US(Should start filming the Day after the Next Day after  Tomorrow now).Strange how this Roland Emmerich film has come true!!! Expect some interesting economic numbers due to the cold there as well in coming months!

Lake Michigan North Pier_0

Lighthouse on North Pier of Lake Michigan!!

Just watched White House Down!!(Could this come true?Another Emmerich film) Channing Tatum is the new Bruce Willis complete with white singlet and Jamie Foxx is the new Morgan Freeman…anyway on a more serious note the World is changing and changing fast. As the US becomes energy independent we are going to see some big shifts in US policy..Iraq ,back in the hands of Al Qaeda, who cares we can take ‘em with drones. Peace in the Middle East ,you know what it’s a nice idea but let’s not get too carried away, after all we can still sell them weapons right? So the great shale revolution is starting to change the whole Geo Political landscape. Last nigt we saw the US balance of payments improve as imports of oil dwindle and soon the pressure will be on Obama to repeal a 1975 act to stop US oil exports and its then game on..the rush for Asian customers for the US and us here is going to get nasty!!

International Energy Agency projects that the U.S. will surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer by 2015.

Take a look at US farm land prices..these guys are making a motza out of the shale…in the US the farmers own the gas under the ground ..here they don’t hence the Shut the Farm Gate movement …I think their real long term goal is to sell the Farm gate or at least licence it..we shall see but the US shale biz is changing the World…when a superpower gets independence on energy, look out!

farm land

Meanwhile the property market in Australia has taken a summer break as agents and others head overseas to Aspen,Nieseko and Whistler but they will be back cranking up the machine in February…and with it the huge movement of SMSF into property will continue…hard to blame them given the shocks from supposed blue chips stocks that we saw in 2013…however bear this in mind shares are liquid, don’t complain about the kitchen nd the plumbing, cheap and easy to get in and out of (commission on shares far smaller, no Aspen for me!)no hassles and good yields if you stock to the banks and high yielders…fully franked too! Personally I prefer shares but then I would…so before you rush out and buy that investment property take a moment to consider buying some blue chips…

FED’S WILLIAMS SAYS U.S. STOCKS AREN’T OVERVALUED….good to know!

In France they have a unique way to negotiate with management..they take them hostage!! Workers at a tyre plant in Northern France have taken two managers hostage until Goodyear (the firm that owns the plant and has been trying to shutter it for years) meets the unions’ demands. As Goodyear winds down operations with the plant almost idle, French labour law requires the company to keep all workers employed, which means many of them don’t work more than a couple of hours a day while still getting full salary. Sounds like they are working harder than normal then!!! Still seems they have been freed now …two days though!!

IMF looks like they are about to revise upwards global growth for 2014…last time they revised it downwards not that many months ago…coming or going guys..make up your mind!!

Epic fail of 2014 is from another Hollywood director Michael Bay who directed Transformers…should have stayed behind the camera after his performance at the New Tech show on the Samsung stand…reminded me of the Mal Meninga entry into politics a bit!!!

Yesterday Coutts launched their own Passion index which showed that classic cars and watches were the big winners over the last 8 years ,returning 77% since 2005!!!Here is a similar one from Knight Frank and his mate last year!!

% Price growth to Q3 2012  1-year  5-year  10-year
 Classic cars

23%

115%

395%

Coins

25%

93%

248%

Stamps

9%

72%

216%

Art

0%

92%

199%

Wine

-19%

7%

166%

Jewellery

2%

60%

144%

Chinese ceramics

0.4%

54%

85%

Watches

8%

27%

76%

Furniture

-9%

-12%

-18%

Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index

6%

64%

175%

Quentin Willson,  a broadcaster and classic car specialist, looked under the bonnet of the classic car market. “If you had bought a 1970s Ferrari Daytona for £50,000 in 2003, it would be worth £250,000 today. A 1960s Aston Martin DB5 bought for £60,000 a decade ago would now command £350,000.”

Italian 2Y yields are now at all-time record lows…no joke its true!!

And finally….as I am on a “Reboot with Juice” diet and off alcohol until Australia Day ,this one seems appropriate!!! And BTW what is Kale….its disgusting that’s what!!

 

Sugar Test

One day an Irishman goes into a pharmacy – reaches into his pocket and takes out a small Irish whiskey bottle and a teaspoon.

He pours from the bottle onto the teaspoon and offers it to the chemist.

“Could you taste this for me, please?”

The chemist takes the teaspoon, puts it in his mouth, swills the liquid around and swallows it.

“Does that taste sweet to you?” says Paddy.

“No, not at all,” says the chemist.

“Oh that’s a relief,” says Paddy. “The doctor told me to come here and get my urine tested for sugar.”

 

And on a cricketing note ,I have long delighted in listening to the ABC team commentating and will miss Kerry O’Keefe big time…for those with two minutes to spare this is pure class!!!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-24/kerry-okeeffe—frog-in-a-bank/5174280

Have a great start to the New Year wherever you are, hopefully where I should be on the beach!!

Back on Sky TV at lunch time too!!!

Have a great day

Clarence

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Any financial product advice contained in this email is general financial product advice only and does not take into account any one person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, before acting on any financial product advice in this email, you should consider, with or without the assistance of an independent adviser, the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Get a Global take on things at www.ntmarkets.com

Get a Global take on things at http://www.ntmarkets.com

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