Welcome to this brave new world. Despite the fact that Tony is a pretty unpopular chap, in the end we just could bring ourselves to vote for Kev13.Of course the markets knew this all along, the bookies paid out as soon as Kev annexed the Northern Territory after all. It will therefore be a muted response I believe to the victory. We have rallied pretty hard in the last two months. The market does look a little tired up here and looking around at the leaders, ie. the banks, BHP, RIO and TLS its hard to get too excited about them at current prices. There is certainly more value in the mid to small cap end. Resource stocks will be slightly more optimistic following the weekend Chinese numbers but the Aussie Dollar pushing up will absorb some of the positive vibes.
Overnight the US market was all over the place but in the end finished down a smidge after falling 150 points as Putin announced his support for the Syrians. Good jobs numbers from the US, at least if you want the free money to continue, as the number disappointed, helped sentiment. This week will be a big week though for Obama as he tries to herd the cats and get Congressional approval for a strike at Syria. Some numbers coming out of China today will hopefully confirm that things have stabilised and are turning up for the Worlds biggest economy.
So to our market. Expect a modest celebration today. Business likes Liberal Governments and despite some Senate issues, Tony has no excuses but to try to be the man we hope he can be. Now, I not a believer in the Tsunami of confidence now about to hit consumers or business. The fact that he is so disliked means that people will be cautious and see how he goes, not a Tsunami more a ripple hopefully building as we go forward.I also think there has been a social and cultural shift away from just stuff and more into experience.Don’t go to DJ’s but do go Overseas…maybe I am wrong but the numbers do suggest that cafes and restaurants etc are doing ok whilst retail is still a black hole. Still lots of shops empty on the Northern Beaches. Hairdressers,Real Estate and Coffee seem to be the go …that and Gyms now!!
Gold rallied, oil rallied, Zombie markets rallied, dollar gained, iron ore fell and other metals were better,Tin at a five month high! Confused? Perhaps..SPI up 12…suspect it will be a tepid start to the week although Chinese numbers are a positive.
As you all know I felt we could get to 5200 but it seemed prudent to get some protection along the way..this (Northern)Autumn things could get interesting as the US Tapers..a normalisation of interest rates and money supply around the world will not necessarily be a positive for Equities.Still haven’t changed that view despite Australia now being open for business!!
Idea of the Day
Things to make me go all Lyrca!
First up item on the agenda from our Tone, is that it is now mandatory to wear lycra to cabinet meetings.
Five years ago this week Lehmans collapsed!It really is a very different World now. Banks now even “too bigger to fail”, another real estate boom, cheap money distorting asset prices, Politicians ignoring the consequences of Wall Street on Main Street..I mean what could possibly go wrong!
China’s government may cut the country’s annual growth target to 7 percent next year, although the actual pace of expansion will be higher, said Fan Jianping, chief economist at a state research institute. The drop would be in line with the goal set in the country’s 2011-2015 five-year plan for annual average expansion of 7 percent
China’s exports increased more than estimated in August, adding to evidence the world’s second-largest economy is rebounding after a two-quarter slowdown.Overseas shipments rose 7.2 percent from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said in Beijing yesterday.
Australia’s banks will be major beneficiaries after global regulators agreed to water down international derivatives regulations that had threatened to add hundreds of millions of dollars to their cost of funding. Global banking and securities regulators have confirmed that the world’s financial institutions will have to pay a “margin” if they do not clear derivative transactions through specialist third parties.
He is a smart man this bloke, ILUKA chief executive David Robb says there is nothing to fear from China’s retreat from double-digit economic growth rates to the more sedate predictions of about 7 per cent. Being the mathematician that he is, Robb has faith in the numbers. And the numbers tell him that even at the lower growth rate, China’s demand for Australia’s commodities is set to continue to grow strongly. “If you start with 100 units of demand and grow it at 10 per cent cumulatively for three years, then in year four you only need 7 per cent growth on that expanded demand base to create the same incremental 10 units of demand that the 10 per cent growth in year one gave you.
Tokyo wins the rights to hold the 2020 Olympics. Hasn’t really helped Brazil..Surprised anyone really puts their hand up for it these days.Greece,Brazil,Spain…
While the American unemployment rate fell to 7.3 per cent, the lowest since December 2008, the increase in payrolls was below market expectations of 177,000 new jobs. Apparently one of the reasons for the jobs miss was the Porn industry had to close down for 12 weeks as one of its actors got HIV! Didn’t realize the numbers were that specific!!!
Still in the US ,in June, the number of households receiving foodstamps rose to 23.117 million, an increase of 45.9k in one month, and also a new record high. As for the average monthly benefit per household: $274.55, just off record lows.There is now more people on Food stamps than live in Spain! Individuals up to 47m!!
Bizarrely a 107-year-old Arkansas man was killed during a shootout with US police and SWAT team members, local authorities say. Police were responding to a disturbance at a house in Pine Bluff city Saturday afternoon and determined that suspect Monroe Isadore had pointed a gun at two people, according to a statement given to local media. He just couldn’t remember which two people!
Remember dating in the 60’s
It was a hot Saturday evening in the summer of 1960, and James had a date with Annabella. He arrived at her house and rang the bell.
’Oh, come on in!’ Annabella’s mother said as she welcomed James.
’Have a seat in the sitting room. Would you like something to drink? Lemonade? Tea?’
’Tea, please,’ James said. Mum brought the tea.
‘So, what are you and Annabella planning to do tonight?’ she asked interestedly.
’Oh, probably go to the flicks and then maybe grab a bite to eat at the coffee bar, perhaps have a walk on the beach afterwards.’
’Annabella likes to screw, you know,’ Mum informed him.
’Really?’ James gasped, surprised to say the least. ‘Oh yes,’ mother continued,
‘When She goes out with her friends, that’s all they do!’
’Is that so?’ asked James, incredulously. ’Oh yes,’ she said. ’As a matter of fact, she’d screw all night if we let her!’ ’Phew! Well, thanks for the tip!’ James said as he began thinking about alternative plans for the evening.
A moment later, Annabella came down the stairs looking pretty as a picture, wearing a pink blouse and a hoop skirt and with her hair tied back in a bouncy ponytail. She greeted James.
’Have fun, kids!’ mother said as they left. Half an hour later, a completely dishevelled Annabella burst into the house And slammed the front door.
“The Twist ” she yelled at her mother “the bloody dance is called the Twist !”
Have a great Monday
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