ASX 200 fell back another 19 points to 7122 (0.3%) as momentum is stalling. Poland may be a distraction but banks down as yields fall, the Big Bank Basket down to $182.89 (1.2%). CBA down 1.8% on broker downgrades, MQG losing 0.9%, insurers off too, IAG down 2.3% and QBE off 2.9%. Fund managers slipping away, MFG down 2.2%, PPT down 4.3% and PTM off 1.3%. PDL still in demand up 4.5%. Industrials pretty flat, REITs unchanged, healthcare eased, CSL off 0.5% and SHL down 2.5% with RMD falling 1.3%. Tech mixed, XRO down 1.8% with the All–Tech Index off 0.6%. Resources were mostly firm although lithium stocks still a little depressed, PLS rose 1.9% on dividend policy news, AKE rallied back 2.4% but CXO dropped 5.4% and LTR off 3.4%. Iron ore stocks better, BHP up 1.2% with FMG rallying 2.3%. Base metals better and OZL in a trading halt as it looks like BHP is trying to button down the takeover. IGO up 4.0% and LYC doing well up 4.0%. Gold miners eased back again, NCM down 1.9% and NST off 2.6%. Energy stocks better, WDS up 1.4% and coal stocks doing very well, WHC up 5.8% and NHC rallying 4.4%. In corporate news, ALL came up lemons, down 5.0% as it issued no guidance, NUF up 8.9% on its results. KMD up 4.2% on its results. SZL did well up 15.0% with a business update and AXE up 4.6% on another step forward to commercialisation. On the economic front, wage growth in the private sector grew 4.3% in September quarter. Overall wage growth picked up 1% over the quarter to 3.1%. Asian markets were mixed, consolidating recent gains. 10-year yields falling again to 3.70%

HEADLINES

• Winners: ARU, TER, NUF, SFR, WHC, LFG, RPL, SMR
• Losers: IMU, DEG, SBM, WAF, AGY, PLL, EVN
• Positive sectors: Iron ore. Oil and gas. Coal. Base metals.
• Negative sectors: Banks. Insurers. Healthcare. Telcos.
• High 7143  Low 7103
• Big Bank Basket: Closed down at $182.89 (-1.2%)
• Dalian iron ore hits 5-week peak.
• All-Tech index: Down 0.6%
• Gold falls to $2629.
• Bitcoin: Rallies to US$16,925
• Aussie Dollar: Higher at 67.35c
• 10-Year Yield: Lower at 3.70%
• Asian markets: Japan up 0.1% HK down 1.4% and China down 0.4%.
• US Futures: Dow up 5 Nasdaq up 4
• European markets

MAJOR MOVERS

• ARU +17.14% rare earths back
• SFR +6.70% copper play Doolgunna Cu-au project resumption.
• NUF +8.86% FY results.
• WHC +5.83% NHC +4.14% big opportunity in little China perhaps.
• IGO +3.97% lithium bounce.
• PLS +1.86% dividend policy.
• ZIP +12.14% short squeeze as SZL sizzles.
• CLG +5.13% AGM Presentation.
• HZR +6.2% MOU with Mitsubishi to develop graphite market.
• GSS +7.14% AGM meeting.
• AXE +4.55% early-stage prototype of biochip system.
• DEG -9.20% directors buying.
• UMG -4.29% becoming a substantial shareholder.
• ALL -5.02% comes up lemons.
• DCN -12.50% third party access to Mt Morgans.
• IFM -12.41% AGM address.
• PGH -7.17% AGM presentation.
• SYA – acquisition expands land position.
• Speculative Stock of the Day: Bass Oil (BAS) +67.57% Significant gas resources identified in PEL 182. Millions not billions though.

IN THE NEWS

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) – FY22 results out this morning. Earnings jumped 24.7%, and the group declared a 26c fully franked dividend. Management is confident it can deliver growth over the full year to September 2023.
• GrainCorp (GNC) – FY22 revenue and profit more than doubled in a bumper season, with a profit of $380m, up from $139m in FY21. The company declared a 54c fully franked dividend, up from 18c last year. The group commented that it is “well positioned for the new financial year, with our businesses performing well, a strong balance sheet and a pipeline of growth opportunities.”
• KMD Brands (KMD) – Q1 sales are up 61.8% in a reflection of the end of pandemic-related lockdowns and a return to normality. Total sales were up 17.5% compared to Q1 2020 (before COVID-19). Looking ahead, management says it is “cautiously optimistic, with the potential of high inflation and rising interest rates impacting consumer sentiment.”
• Nufarm (NUF) – FY22 earnings jumped 24%, with underlying net profit more than doubling to $133.2m. The company declared a 6c unfranked dividend.
• Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – Pilbara will start paying dividends in FY23 with a target of 20-30% of free cash flow. Positive market conditions have resulted in a significant cash balance. As of September 30, Pilbara’s cash balance sat at $1.375 billion.
• Hotel Property Investments (HPI) – Hotel Property Investments provide guidance at AGM. Dividends per share down 10% to $18.4c, reflecting the impact of interest costs, partially offset by revenue increases across the portfolio.
• BHP Group Limited (BHP) –BHP is back in talks with OZ Minerals, looking to move forward from their statement back in August when BHP offered a $ 25-a-share bid. OZ Minerals now in trading halt pending the announcement by the company in relation to a potential change of control transaction.
• Johns Lyng Group Ltd (JLG) – John Lyng Group has acquired three businesses funded by their cash reserves. An 80% interest in A1 Estimates, an 80% interest in North Shore Strata and a 100% interest in Adpen Strata. Expectation earnings will be immediately accretive.
• Sezzle (SZL) – lifted its revenue for October 18% on the prior year to $US11.5m. It narrowed adjusted EBTDA to a loss of $US200,000, compared to an average monthly adjusted EBTDA loss of $US8.2m in QA2021.
• Medibank Private (MPL) – At the AGM, CEO David Koczkar said rejecting the ransom demand issued by the hacker “was the right thing to do”. It made no change to its 2023 guidance since downgrading the outlook last month. 
• Australian manufacturers are facing gas contract offers that are up to five times that of a year ago. Industry Minister Ed Husic said “there needed to be action, which may include new tax on gas producers, a price cap and direct assistance to the industry”.
• Infomedia Limited (IFM) – Infomedia Limited held its annual general meeting today. They provided an updated FY23 outlook for full-year revenue of $127m to $132m.

ECONOMIC NEWS

• The IMF says Australia remains on a narrow path to a soft economic landing, but called for higher interest rates, ongoing fiscal discipline and major tax reform to buttress the economy. The global lender forecast economic growth to slow from 3.7% this year to just 1.7% in 2023-24, due to higher interest rates, persistent inflation, weakening export demand, and declining housing prices. “Australia is expected to steer clear of a recession, but with significant downside risks,” the IMF said in its concluding statement.

Wage Growth

In September quarter 2022 the seasonally adjusted WPI:

• Rose 1.0% this quarter and 3.1% over the year.
• The private sector rose 1.2% and the public sector rose 0.6%.

ASIAN MARKETS

• China’s home prices fell the most in seven years in October. New-home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, fell 0.37% last month from September, a 14th straight decline, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed Wednesday.
• Home sales dropped 23% last month from a year earlier, deepening from a 16% decline in the previous month.

US AND EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• Donald Trump has announced his run for the 2024 Presidency.

• Why is Elon Musk not even in contention? Bill Gates is paying $276, even Beyonce is paying $151.
• Poland said a Russian-made rocket fell on a village and killed two people. Russia’s Defence Ministry denied its forces had aimed missiles at targets near Ukraine’s border with Poland.Biden seems to agree.
• McCarthy wins nomination for Speaker as Republican divisions deepen.
• Global decline in sperm counts is accelerating, research finds.
• FBI Director Christopher Wray said yesterday that he is “extremely concerned” about TikTok’s operations in the U.S. “We do have national security concerns at least from the FBI’s end about TikTok.”
• Argentina’s inflation rises 6.3% month on month, annual inflation nears 90% surpassing Turkey.

And finally…..

I’ve just been to the supermarket for a sandwich and a packet of crisps. The young lady at the checkout said, “Do you want to grab a drink?”

I blushed, I replied, “I’m flattered but I’m married.  But thank you.”

She just looked at me and said, “It’s part of the meal deal”

Clarence

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