ASX 200 closed down 23 to 6645 as early gains evaporated in thin, convictionless trade. US futures turned south, and bond yields rose with the 10-year heading over 4%. Banks turned lower with the Big Bank Basket down to $169.04 (0.6%). CBA and NAB on the nose. MQG fell 0.6% in a late sell off, insurers unchanged. Healthcare stocks also held up just CSL down 0.1% with RHC up 1.0%. Industrials were firm but idle, TLS rose 0.3% on its AGM and restructure plans. Tech slipped slightly but no real damage, WTC off 1.3% and the Index down 1.0%. Resources gave up some early gains as BHP slid 0.4% and FMG fell 2.2%. S32 eased 2.9% with lithium stocks remaining well sought, PLS up 0.6% and MIN up 2.8%. Energy stocks fell harder with WDS down 2.4% and STO off 1.3% with coal not such a merry old soul, WHC off 0.8%. In corporate news, BBN spat the dummy after its update on lower margins and inflation impacts, falling 20.5%. DBI rose 6.2% on an investor presentation, PNV up 6.0% on more director buying and SLC better by 11.8% on its AGM commentary. On the economic front, Westpac consumer confidence slipped again, and the Australian Office of Financial Management said it could nearly halve the amount of debt it plans to seek this year after a better than expected position. Asian markets off as Japan falls 2.6% HK down 1.6% though China up 0.5%.

HEADLINES

• Winners: DBI, OFT, PNV, JLG, PRN, BLY, AKE, ORI
• Losers: BBN. MAD, PBH, SYA, CXL, IMU, TYR, PPH
• Positive sectors: Lithium. Telcos.
• Negative sectors: Iron ore. Banks. Energy. Healthcare. REITs. Tech.
• High 6712 Low 6645
• Big Bank Basket: Closed at $169.04 (Down 0.6%)
• All-Tech index: Falls 1%.
• Gold: Unchanged at 2660
• Bitcoin: Lower to US$19039
• Aussie Dollar: Tumbles to 62.53c
• 10-Year Yield: Rises again to 4.01%
• Asian markets: Japan falls 2.6% HK down 1.6% though China up 0.5%.
• US Futures: Dow down 139 Nasdaq down 49.
• European markets set to open weaker across the board by around 0.5%

MAJOR MOVERS

• DBI +6.19% investor presentation.
• JLG +5.86% good solid bounce.
• PNV +6.02% directors buying again.
• ORI +4.36% executive change
• AKE +4.73% MIN +2.78% lithium still hot.
• E25 +17.93% HPMSM feasibility progressing on schedule.
• SLC +11.81% AGM chairman’s comments.
• BBN -20.51% dummy spit as margins under pressure.
• PBH -6.64% slip resumes.
• CXL -6.16% more selling continuing.
• SYA -6.52% heading back down.
• IMU -5.56% risk off appetite continues.
• AMI -6.90% funding remains a question mark.
• Speculative Stock of the Day: Dundas Minerals (DUN) +22.86% 358m of massive semi massive sulphides. DUNO up 21.62%. DUNO trading at a discount to head stock.

IN THE NEWS

• Telstra (TLS) held its AGM this morning. There is some positive broker research today speculating about a generous share buyback and dividend to come after the sale of their InfraCo assets. Ord Minette has a 460c target price (price now 386c) and says the sale would generate 12 billion to 17 billion in post-tax cash for Telstra which, after paying down debt to a target net debt ratio, would leave $10-$15 billion available for capital returns. If the buyback occurred at 460c, they estimate earnings could increase 10 to 20% in 2024 with dividends 9-24% higher. More research tomorrow but the vibe is good. Telstra also confirmed guidance for 2023.
• Baby Bunting (BBN) – Is down 23% this morning after a warning about gross margins being hit by inflation issues. Their margin is down 2.3% in the first quarter of this year compared to last year. Sales were still up 12%. The problem is input costs as freight costs and a lower Aussie dollar impact on importation costs.
• CBA – AGM tomorrow.
• CSL – AGM tomorrow.
• Mirvac (MGR) – CEO steps down after 10 years.
• HelloWorld (HLO) – The update for the September quarter sees total transaction value (TTP) up 352% year-on-year. EBITDA is up 174%. They reaffirm guidance for the full year.
• Cettire (CTT) – Sales update sees quarterly sales up 72% with net cash on hand of $30 million. Expressing confidence in the Outlook and self-funding strategy.
• Viva Leisure (VVA) – Gym operator – Solid guidance includes a fivefold increase in EBITDA this financial year on sales up over 50%.
• Platinum Asset Management (PTM) – PTM is a fund manager focused on Asia. They had a FUM update today. Share price down 1.2%.

ECONOMIC NEWS/ BOND MARKETS

• The Westpac index of consumer sentiment slid 0.9% to 83.7. Confidence in jobs tumbled 11.7% but is still relatively upbeat. Inflation, which is currently 6.1%, and is expected to
  lift to 7.6% by year’s end.

• Secondhand vehicle prices have fallen for four months in a row in Australia, with Moody’s Analytics predicting the declines for the rest of 2022 will be steeper as more new cars become available. Used vehicle prices fell 1.1% in September compared with August, marking the fourth month in a row of a downward trend.
• Moody’s Analytics said used car prices are still 14.6% higher than last year, and 62% above the pre-pandemic level.
• New vehicle sales were up 12.3% in September compared with a year ago.
• The Australian Office of Financial Management could nearly halve the amount of debt it plans to seek this year after the federal government’s 2021-22 budget deficit emerged $50bn better than forecast.

ASIAN MARKETS

• Japan back trading after holiday yesterday. Japan’s forex reserves fall by record US$54bn.
• Chip-related stocks in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan slumped as traders returning from Monday’s holidays. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. plunged more than 7%, the most since May 2021, while Samsung Electronics Co. dropped as much as 3.9%.
• Bank of Korea meets tomorrow 50bps rise expected.

US AND EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• JPMorgan CEO Dimon warns US recession ‘likely’ in 6-9 months, see chance of a further 20% fall in shares. He said new U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss should be “given the benefit of the doubt” following a turbulent first month in office.
• Fed-led dash for higher rates risks ‘world recession’, warns top EU diplomat.
• US banks set aside US$4bn for potential bad loans.
• Oxford/AstraZeneca nasal Covid vaccine fails in trial.
• US bond yields on the ascendency again. Closing in on 4%.
• According to the International Energy Agency, electric vehicle sales are on course to hit an all-time high this year.

And finally …off to give blood for first time…Mad Cow be damnned!