ASX 200 closed up 15 to 6605 (+0.2%) as a late afternoon charge helped. A mixed quiet session as we await the US CPI release tonight. Banks firmed slightly with the Big Bank Basket up to $165.67 (0.7%). CBA the star up 1.1% with MQG doing well up 2.2%. MFG slightly higher too up 2.9%. Insurers flat with IAG down 1.1%. Industrials higher with TLS up 1.0%, WES up 1.2%. GMG rose 2.4% with REITS flat behind it. Tech stocks slightly better with WTC up 1.3% and XRO up 1.3% as ANZ indicates interest in MYOB. QAN rallying on the fall in oil price up 4.3% and TCL better again up 1.0%. Resources were mixed, BHP fell 1.4% with RIO off 1.4%, lithium stocks better as VUL ran 7.1%, PLS up 5.4 % and IGO up 1.1%. Oil and gas stocks eased as crude prices fell, STO down 1.3% and WDS off 2.9%. Coal stocks once again doing well, WHC up 4.5% and NHC up 3.1%. In corporate news, CHN up 3.7% on identifying new Ni-Cu-PGE targets at Thor. KMD issued an update rising 0.5% as winter has been good. In economic news, the RBNZ went hard again by 50bps to 2.5%. Asian markets mixed, with local 10-year yields easing to 3.37%.

  • Winners: PPM, VUL, MP1, SGF, MYX, MIR, BBN, PBH, PLS
  • Losers: PL8, EDS, VEA, 29M, AWC, GNE, PTM, IFM
  • Positive sectors: Banks. Healthcare. Industrials. Lithium. Coal.
  • Negative sectors: Iron ore. Oil and gas.
  • High 6622 Low 6584. Late surge to close on highs. Narrow range.
  • Big Bank Basket: Rises to 165.67 (0.7%)
  • All-Tech index: Up 1.4%
  • Gold: Lower at $2549
  • Bitcoin: Lower at US$19,466
  • Aussie Dollar: Steady at 67.53c.
  • 10-Year Yield:  Falls to 3.37%
  • Asian markets: Mixed China and HK flat Japan up 0.3%
  • US Futures: Dow up 23 Nasdaq up 25
  • European markets pointing to a weaker start down by around 0.5%.

Major Movers

  • VUL +7.06% volatility continues.
  • MP1 +7.32% bouncing again.
  • BBN +5.72% advance notice of results.
  • WHC +4.46% old king coal remains merry.
  • PLS +5.36% lithium back in fashion if only briefly.
  • M7T +10.62% patent litigation update.
  • RHY +10.55% low volume move.
  • TPW +10.77% oversold.
  • BBC +7.89% trading update and dividend.
  • PL8 -4.17% NTA backing.
  • SZL -21.57% sinking fast on balance sheet woes.
  • AAC -1.86% beef bubble blown.
  • AIS -11.96% FY production update.
  • WSP -7.56% volatility continues.
  • Speculative Stock of the Day:  88E +27.27% Ok volume. No announcements. 135m traded.

In the News

  • KMD Brands (KMD) expects total sales for the full year to be between $995m to $965m and forecasts underlying EBITDA to be between $88m to $94m. In FY21, sales were $922m and underlying EBITDA was $113.3m.
  • Qantas (QAN) removes COVID-19 vaccination requirement for international travellers from July 19.
  • KKR is understood to be in advanced talks to sell MYOB Group to ANZ with a price tag of $4bn.
  • oOh!media (OML) appoints Chris Roberts as CFO
  • Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) seeing increased interest from countries looking to reduce dependence on China.
  • Mirrabooka (MIR) has announced a full-year profit of $6.7m to June 30, up 4.4% from this time last year.
  • TPG – The three largest shareholders, Vodafone, Hutchinson and David Teoh, are free to sell as much stock as they want, with shares out of escrow on the two-year anniversary between TPG and Vodafone’s merger.
  • South32 (S32) sells package of 4 non-core base metals royalties to Anglo Pacific Group for up to US$200m.
  • Platinum Asset Management (PTM) June FUM $18.21bn vs $19.59bn at the end of May.

Economic News/Bond Markets

  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has become the first developed central bank to lift its cash rate above a neutral level. Not sure how you would define neutral, still well below current inflation rate. The RBNZ increased the cash rate to 2.5%, lifting the benchmark above the 2% level which it deems to be ‘neutral’.
  • Spending for the first 10 days of July is down 8.3% compared to June according to ANZ.
  • ETF industry assets under management dropped by almost 10% in the second quarter of 2022.
  • The IMF has published its outlook for the US economy and downgraded its GDP forecast for a second time in less than a month to 2.3% growth this year and 1% growth next year.

Asian Markets

  • Bank of Korea ups rates by 50bps in an attempt to get ahead of the curve. Inflation is currently running at a 23-year-high.
  • Tianqi Lithium fell as much as 11% in Hong Kong the rallied, following the largest share sale in the Asian financial hub this year.
  • Tianqi is planning to more than double its lithium refining capacity in the next three years to about 110,000 tons, from about 45,000 tons now.
  • Shanghai’s COVID-19 cases appear to be levelling off

US and European News

  • US CPI Number tonight. 8.8% is forecast. Fake US inflation report circulates a day before data release. Core inflation, excluding petrol and food, is expected to go from 6% in May to 5.7%, the third month in a row of slowing.
  • UK GDP up 0.5% M/M v -0.3% April.  May Manufacturing up 1.4% M/M v -1.0% in April
  • German June CPI up 7.6% YoY in line with forecast. Harmonised CPI 8.2% YoY v 8.2% preliminary.
  • President Biden in Middle East.
  • Spain hits banks and utilities with windfall tax.
  • Heathrow tells airlines to stop selling tickets for flights this summer. Caps departures at 100,000 a day.
  • PepsiCo warns of more price rises as consumers stomach gains.
  • NY Judge has frozen the assets of Three Arrows Capital crypto fund founders.

And finally,

I’m a dyslexic, agnostic insomniac.

I’ve spent many a night lying awake wondering if there’s a dog.

A white horse walks into a bar and the barman says we’ve got a whisky named after you. The horse says what Eric.