The ASX 200 rallied 7 points to 6998. Quiet, too quiet. After the big falls yesterday, investors and traders were reluctant to chase the market higher ahead of a weekend. A good bounce from technology stocks predicated on a Nasdaq bounce but also a big after-hours jump in Block (SQ2) rising 32.5%. SQ2 is 5.9% of the All–Tech Index. CPU is the biggest holding at nearly 13%. CPU rose 1.5%. Results and Russia remain the focus. Industrials were mixed as REITs rose slightly, GMG up 2.4% and CHC up 3.7%. WES rose 0.3% and ALL up 1.9% with TLS off 0.3% and BXB slipping 0.8% on pallet hoarding and rising costs of timber. Banks eased as bond yields steady at 2.23%, the Big Bank Basket fell to $ 171.72 (-1.5%). MFG revealed another blow to FUM and fell 10.1%, MQG bounced slightly up 1.5% and insurers flat. Miners were easier, BHP down 0.2% and RIO down 0.7%. FMG bucked the downdraft rising 0.3%. Gold miners and energy stocks fell away as the spike in underlying assets pulled back. Lithium stocks better, AKE up 5.2% and PLS up 4.6% with LYC reporting record numbers rising 6.9%. Healthcare eased with CSL down 1.3%. In company news, ALG rallied 17.2% on its results, CCX saw a 12.9% bounce after a shocker yesterday on numbers, BWX fell 26.4% as it swung to a loss and KGN suffered a similar sell-off on its numbers, down 6.2%. PNV reported and dropped 3.3% with TNT up 15.4% on an investor update. Nothing on the economic front. Asian markets were slightly better. Dow futures eased sapping some early strength.

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End of Day Podcast – Friday, February 25

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MAJOR MOVERS:

• Winners: SQ2, 360, ALG, BOE, CCX, PDN, TYR, APM
• Losers: BWX, BKL, MFG, IDX, SBM, KGN, KED

• Positive sectors: Tech. REITs. Industrials
• Negative sectors: Gold miners, banks, staples
• High 7046 Low 6975
• ASX 200 down 3% for the week.
• Big Bank Basket: Falls to $171.72 (-1.5%)
• All-Tech index: Up 4.6%
• Gold: Down to $2656
• Bitcoin: Rises to US$38802
• Aussie Dollar: Steady at 71.90c
• 10-YEAR YIELD: Rises to 2.23%
• Asian markets fall, Japan up 1.7%, China up 0.74% and HK down 0.1%
• US Futures: Dow down 130 points. Nasdaq Futures down 93 points

Stocks on The Move

• SQ2 +32.49% Block moves higher after hours on results.
• 360 +22.01% bounce is in but still has issues with Apple Tag.
• CCX +12.89% brokers say oversold yesterday.
• ALG +17.16% results cheer.
• TYR +10.92% director buying.
• APM +10.90% results bounce for HR company.
• PDN +12.41% BOE +13.30% uranium on the rise. Maybe Europe is still too dependent on Russian oil?
• TNT +15.38% investor update and cyber security focus.
• SZL +13.78% BNPL bounce and merger Monday?
• BWX -26.41% skin off big time on results.
• MFG -10.11% more money walks.
• BKL -10.54% half-yearly results.
• KGN -6.24% troubles continue.
• PNV -3.32% burnt, results disappointed.
• DEG -4.76% GOR -5.52% gold miners under pressure.
• BVS -11.90% another wealth platform falls.
• Speculative stock of the Day: Nothing on any volume.

In the News

• Incitec Pivot (IPL) warns ammonia plant incident in the US could cost ~$US100m. Expectations are for the plant to restart in 6 weeks to 8 weeks. Brokers remained upbeat following the news of the incident. May see some price target revisions following more specific details about the likely cost. UBS said ongoing strong growth from fertiliser pricing and projects means IPL might be able to consider capital management options by the end of FY22.
• Magellan (MFG) records a further $3.2bn in outflows. Net outflows this year are at $8.7bn. Total FUM fell to $77.2bn on February 23, down from $87.1 bn on February 9.
• BWX (BWX) swings to loss despite revenue jump. Expects revenue growth to continue in 2H22, sees full-year revenue growth >10% against FY21.
• Medibank (MPL) interim dividend up. Full-year guidance: Aiming to achieve 3.1-3.3% policyholder growth1 in FY22. Underlying average net claims expense per policy unit is forecast to be ~2.3% among resident policyholders. FY22 Health Insurance management expenses are expected to be ~$530m. FY22 productivity target of ~$15M in Health Insurance management expenses.
• Harvey Norman (HVN) EBITDA down 3.3%, revenue down 6.2%. 20c dividend.
• Brambles (BXB) profits modestly higher, upgrades guidance. Operating costs jump.
• Mayne Pharma (MYX) cuts loss to $50m vs year-ago -$181.3m.
• Bravura’s (BVS) profit improves in the first half. Interim dividend 3.7c, unfranked. Expect revenue growth to continue in 2H22, resulting in FY revenue growth in excess of 10% against FY21.
• Lynas (LYC) record profit and sales revenue. Rare earth oxide average selling price per kg $48.6 vs $23.7 last year.
• Australian Finance Group (AFG) first-half underlying profit $30m vs consensus $29.8m. Interim dividend of 7c. Performance of AFG through the residential mortgage cycle is proven; the residential mortgage market remains strong.
• Charter Hall (CHC) profit higher, FUM climbs to $79bn.
• Austal (ASB) profits fall, maintains interim dividend.
• PointsBet (PBH) increases EBITDA loss.
• Autosports Group (ASG) first half adjusted profit after tax $33.2m vs guidance $36-37m.

Economic news/Bond markets

• New Zealand’s central bank aims to raise interest rates as quickly as possible to contain inflation and avoid the need for even greater policy tightening in future, Governor Adrian Orr said.

Asian Markets

• Asia’s coal benchmark surged to a four-month high as concerns that the conflict in Ukraine could disrupt energy supplies. China is still trying to cool commodity price rises.

• A magnitude 6.2 earthquake hit Pasaman Barat regency in Indonesia’s West Sumatra province.

US and European News

• All about Russia. Missiles resume at 4am.
• Bitcoin rallying hard as maybe only thing Russia can use to get around banking system.
• Japan restricts semiconductor exports to Russia.
• Elon Musk and his brother under investigation from the SEC over some share sales.
• Moderna says pandemic will end in 2022 but boosters needed.

And finally….

Albert Einstein once wrote on a blackboard in front of a class of students the following

9 x 1 = 9
9 x 2 = 18
9 x 3 = 27
9 x 4 = 36
9 x 5 = 45
9 x 6 = 54
9 x 7 = 63
9 x 8 = 72
9 x 9 = 81
9 x 10 = 91

Suddenly chaos erupted because Einstein made a mistake.

Obviously, the correct answer to 9 × 10 isn’t 91 it is 90

And all his students laughed and ridiculed him.

Einstein waited for everyone to be silent and said . . .

Despite the fact that I analysed nine problems correctly, no one congratulated me. But when I made one mistake, everyone started laughing.

Does this mean that even if a person is successful, society will notice his slightest mistake?

And they’ll like that. So don’t let criticism destroy your dreams.

“The only person who never makes a mistake is someone who does nothing.”

Clarence

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