ASX 200 moved 39 points higher to 7068 (0.5%) after a mid-morning sell off and the RBA kept things nice and steady. Dow futures down 32 points. Today it was all about resources and conferences. The big miners all did well, BHP gained 2.5% and FMG climbed 0.8% with gold miners seeing some good bounce in them, NCM rose 1.4% and NST up 4.2%. Uranium stocks were glowing as the green fallout continues, PDN up 19.0% and second liners also on buyers shopping list, DEG up 5.8% following more good drill results. Banks were mixed, WBC saw some backing and filling down 0.9% and the basket steady at $172.52. CBA up 0.8% bucking the trend. Elsewhere financials were flat, MQG becalmed ahead of results, QBE up 0.5% and AEF continuing to roll upwards by 4.2%. Industrials firmed but not racing away, WES up 0.7% and TLS gained 0.3%. TPG back to SOP with a 3.6% loss. Technology stocks and BNPL on the nose, APT down 2.8% and Z1P down 1.9% with the All–Tech Index off 1.2%. In corporate news, SEK up 1.8%, expects FY21 profit of ~$150m vs $100m prior. Declares 20c dividend. SUL up 0.7% as it points to strong sales growth with trading ahead of both 2020 and 2019 financial years. NCK down 2.6%, despite expectations profit could almost double in 2021. DXS up 0.9% maintains high rent collections. DHG down 2.9%, costs expected to increase in the mid-single-digit range. FLT down 4.6%, flagged 2H underlying losses to be broadly in line with 1H losses. On the economic front, the RBA left rates unchanged whilst upgrading economic forecasts. Confidence rose just 0.3% last weekend despite the end of the Perth lockdown. New loan commitments jumped 5.5% in March to another record. Trade balance for March revealed an unexpected sip, surplus $5.57bn vs estimates of $8.2bn. Asian markets mostly closed for holidays.

Today’s Highlights

• ASX 200 up 39 to 7068. RBA keeps rates in hold.
• High 7069 Low 7035 Miners time to shine.
• Big Bank Basket steady at $172.52
• All Tech Index down 1.25%
• Dow futures down 32.
• Australian Gold rises to $2309
• 10-year yield steady at 1.73%
• AUD steady at 77.41c.
• Bitcoin falls to US$55965
• Asian markets closed until Thursday.

STOCKS

• PDN +18.99% uranium trade back on.
• DEG +5.76% more good drill results from Hemi.
• RSG +7.37% RMS +7.90% SLR +7.65% gold miners head higher.
• ART -3.89% tech profit takers continue.
• FLT -4.61% business update.
• EOS -3.60% broker downgrade.
• LCK -18.87% binding agreement spooks horses.
• ONE -8.00% profit taking.
• WBC -0.91% shorts covered, brokers hold.
• BOE +29.03% uranium play.
• CSL +0.10%% open to new manufacturing options, talking to government.
• TPG -3.61% one day bounce SOP return.
• NST +4.20% Investment presentation.
• PNR +4.88% bullion bounce.
• APT -2.82% Z1P -1.92% BNPL sliding continues.
• RHC -0.24% investment grade assigned from Fitch.
• Speculative Stock of the Day: Great Boulder (GBR) +80.43% Large scale gold discovery confirmed at Blue Poles. 40m @1.15g/t from 44m Confirms dip and strike. Now in trading halt pending another report.
• Biggest Winners: PDN, RMS, SLR, RSG, CHN, DBI and DEG.
• Biggest Losers: ADO, CTT, ALK, PLL, MYX, REG, FLT and PWR.

TODAY

• Infomedia (IFM) +3.49% To acquire SimplePart for upfront purchase price of US$24.5m, plus earn-out of up to US$20.5m over three years.
• Computershare (CPU) -1.00% Provide trading update in Macquarie conference presentation; FY21 guidance unchanged. Trading update for first three months of H2: Better than February expectations: 1) Shareholder paid fees in US Issuer Services starting to pick up, 2) New client wins for full range of Issuer Services’ solutions, 3) Ongoing recovery in Employee Share Plans’ trading volumes. In line with February expectations: 1) Margin income balances and yields, 2) Corporate Actions volumes in Issuer, 3) Services Contributions from Corporate Creations and Verbatim acquisitions. Behind February’s expectations: 1) Government support and low-cost capital reducing levels of corporate bankruptcies, 2) Extension to US Mortgage Services foreclosure moratorium now expected into FY22. FY21 guidance unchanged.
• Westpac Banking (WBC) -0.91% Plans to make decision before 30-Sep on whether to spin off or retain New Zealand operations – The Australian.
• Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT) -4.61% Expects H2 underlying losses to be broadly in line with H1. March sales revenue comfortably higher than previous COVID-period record. March turnover +32.7% over the month. Currently expecting further growth in April. H2 sales revenue gains largely offset by Q3 JobKeeper subsidy decrease & Q4 removal. Continuing to target a return to profitability (PBT) during FY22 on a month-to-month basis in both corporate & leisure, given stable cost base & gradual, but consistent, revenue growth.
• Domain Holdings Australia (DHG) -2.95% March quarter revenue +2%.Digital revenue +8% for the quarter April 2021 new residential listings have rebounded strongly from April 2020’s COVID impacted base. FY Guidance: FY21 total costs (adjusted for divestments) are expected to increase in the mid-single digit range from the FY20 base of $177.2m.
• Super Retail Group (SUL) +0.69% Year to date like-for-like sales +28% at week 44 vs FY20. Strong Easter trading across all brands, particularly BCF and Macpac. Given the continued strength of customer demand, the group has maintained relatively subdued levels of promotional activity in H2. The group is in a well stocked inventory position which has benefitted from the arrival of orders made in H1.
• Ramsay Health Care (RHC) -0.24% Provides Q3 trading update at Macquarie conference by region. Australia: Patient revenue +4.6% vs year-ago (ex-Mildura +8.2%), total admissions per work-day in March +3.2% vs Q3-19 (ex-Mildura +4.9%). Ramsay Aus is working with NSW govt on the operation of the mass vaccination site at Homebush. UK:Q3 Admissions -6.2% vs year-ago. Mix of private to public patients remained higher on the year at 22.8% of total admissions in Q3. Europe:Elective surgery restrictions and Covid lock downs admissions were materially below year-ago. Elective surgery restrictions in Paris area increased to 50% in late March with other regions at 40%. Nordic region continues to be impacted by ongoing Covid and financial performance has been supported by the reimbursement model in Sweden, opthomology business in Norway and higher volumes in Denmark.
• Nick Scali (NCK) -2.62% Provides trading update; guides FY21 profit of $78-80m vs consensus $79.5m. Trading update: Positive trading momentum has been maintained with growth in total written sales orders of 50% through Q3 FY21, which includes same store written sales order growth of 41%. Notwithstanding container availability continuing to affect the Company’s supply chain, FY21 year-to-date sales revenue growth is approximately 44% to the end of April and is expected to continue through Q4 FY21. FY21 guidance: EBITDA $120m, which includes net repayment of JobKeeper subsidies received in H1.NPAT $78-80m. The order bank at the end of April continues to remain at elevated levels which provides a good foundation for revenue growth as the Company enters FY22.
• Worley (WOR) +4.25% Provides trading update in Macquarie Conference presentation; On track for an improved result in H2 compared to H1 FY21. Market update: Upstream and midstream – Some recovery in project sanctioning expected in 2021. Power – Capex investment in renewables has remained relatively steady through the pandemic. Refining and chemicals – Refining industry under ongoing pressure though major chemicals customers reporting improved earnings and increasing capex announcements.
• Vicinity Centres (VCX) -0.94% Issues Q3 portfolio update. Reports Q3: Portfolio retail sales (7.0%) in 3QFY21 relative to 3QFY19. Centre visitation 77% of 3QFY19, cash collected 82% of gross rental billings and portfolio occupancy rate 98.0%. Management Comments: “After a challenging 12 months, we are seeing signs of recovery, with improved centre visitation and retail sales during the quarter.”
• AGL Energy (AGL) +1.91% Reaffirms FY21 guidance at Macquarie conference: Expects profit $500-580m. Sees underlying EBITDA between $1,585-1,845m. FY22 outlook: Further material step-down in wholesale electricity earnings anticipated as hedging positions were established when wholesale prices were materially higher. No recurrence of $80-100m (after tax) from insurance proceeds related to Loy Yang outage. Demerger plans to be confirmed by 30-Jun with execution during FY22.
• SEEK (SEK) +1.85% FY21 guidance: Revenue $1.74bn vs previous guidance $1.7bn. EBITDA $510m vs previous guidance $460m. Profit $150m previous guidance $100m. Declares a dividend of 20c.
• Dexus Property Group (DXS) +0.88% Office portfolio March quarter: Occupancy by income 95.4% vs 97.4% at the end of December. Weighted average lease expiry (WALE) by income 4.1 years vs 4.2 years at the end of December. Industrial portfolio March quarter: Occupancy by income 97.8% vs 95.5% at the end of December. WALE by income 4.4 years vs 4.3 years at the end of Q2. Outlook (Macquarie Australia Conference slides): Maintain guidance for an FY21 full-year distribution per security amount consistent with FY20 of 50.3c.

ECONOMIC NEWS

RBA leaves rates on hold at 0.1%.

The Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets of 10 basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond, and the parameters of the Term Funding Facility and bond purchase program.

• Inflation expectations have lifted from near-record lows to be closer to central banks’ targets. Recent CPI data confirmed that inflation pressures remain subdued in most parts of the Australian economy. A pick-up in inflation and wages growth is expected, but it is likely to be only gradual and modest.
• Better than expected economic recovery expected to continue.
• Recovery is especially evident in the strong growth in employment, with the unemployment rate falling further to 5.6 per cent in March and the number of people with a job now exceeding the pre-pandemic level.
• The Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.
• At its July meeting, the Board will consider whether to retain the April 2024 bond as the target bond for the 3-year yield target or to shift to the next maturity, the November 2024 bond. The Board is not considering a change to the target of 10 basis points.
• It is not considering an extension of the Term Funding Facility

Lowe said the bank’s central scenario for GDP growth was revised up, with an expansion of 4.75% now expected this year and 3.5% over 2022. Unemployment is expected to continue to decline to around 5% at the end of this year and around 4.5% at the end of 2022.

• Lowe said the board will decide at its July 6 meeting on a third tranche of quantitative easing and whether to shift yield curve control to target the November 2024 maturity from the current April 2024 bond.

CV19 NEWS

• UK says lockdown rules will be scrapped over next seven weeks.
• India reported more than 357,000 new infections, bringing the total official tally to more than 20m cases, and an additional 3,449 deaths.
• 2.2m individuals in Egypt have registered to receive a Covid-19 vaccine and 900,000 have been inoculated against the virus.
• Vaccine Tracker: 1.17bn doses in 174 countries. 20.2m a day. In US 247m doses and 2.29m a day.

BOND MARKETS

ASIAN NEWS

• Fidelity Investments has cut its valuation of Ant Group to around US$144bn compared to the near US$300bn valuation in August.

US AND EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• European futures pointing to a flat opening across the board.
• Aramco numbers beat estimates and dividend policy remains
• Bill and Melinda call it quits. Turn off and restart PC.
• Apollo to buy Verizon media assets including Yahoo for US$5bn.
• Buffett anoints his successor. He is Abel.
• US getting back to normal.
• UK hosts first G7 in person meeting in nearly two years.

And finally

            “As good as this bar is,” said the Scotsman,

            “I still prefer the pubs back home. In Glasgow , there’s a

wee place called McTavish’s. The landlord goes out of his way for the

locals. When you buy four drinks, he’ll buy the fifth drink.”

            “Well, Angus,” said the Englishman, “At my local in London,

the Red Lion, the barman will buy you your third drink after you buy the

first two.”

            “Ahhh, dat’s nothin’,” said  Paddy Sheehan, the Irishman.

“Back home in me favorite pub, the moment you set foot in the place,

they’ll buy you a drink, then another, all the drinks you like,

actually. Then, when you’ve had enough drinks, they’ll take you upstairs

and see dat you gets laid, all on the house!”

            The Englishman and Scotsman were suspicious of the claims.

            “Did this actually happen to you, Paddy ?”

            “Not me meself, personally, no,” admitted the Irishman,

“but it did happen to me sister quite a few times.”

Clarence

XXX