Thursday 5th November – Australian Market Wrap | Beeks Downunder-Because not all financial news is boring!

ASX 200 rallies hard up 77 points to 6140 (1.2%) on US Presidential results. Dow futures up 180 as counting continues. The market was one-way traffic out of the blocks today with the Big Bank Basket rising to $126.15 on NAB results and positive comments. Industrials too rose led by CSL up 3.4% and healthcare with RMD up 3.5% and FPH up 1.8%. WOW rose 1.6%, COL up 2.0% and WES up 1.4%. TCL had a good day up 1.2% with no new cases in VIC and a NSW budget pointing to a sell down of WestConnex. REITS firmed with a positive update from GMG up 3.7%. Big miners and energy stocks missed the email, BHP down 0.1% and RIO down 0.8% as China trade row simmers away. STO and WPL weaker by around 0.7% despite oil price rises. In tech it was all systems go, APT rose to new highs up 2.5% and REA up 2.6% together with XRO up 2.0%. The All Tech Index rose 1.8%. TWE down 8.2%, on possible retrospective tariffs in China. FLT up 6.9%, sales gradually increasing and tracking at 12% of pre-COVID levels globally. DMP down 3.2%, observes 8.4% same-store sales growth for the first 17 weeks of FY21. NAB up 3.3%, FY cash earnings down 36.6% to $3.7bn vs consensus $3.79bn. Final DPS 30c fully-franked. Labelled a ‘mixed result’. ING up 16.2%, Q1 trading volumes up 6.3% vs year ago. GMG up 3.7%, Q1 total assets under management $51.7bn. Reaffirmed guidance. SCG up 2.15%, 92% of retailer stores are now open and trading (including Victoria), with more stores in Victoria to reopen over the coming weeks. Rent collections recovered. In economic news, The seasonally adjusted balance on goods and services surplus increased $3,012m to $5,630m in September vs expectations of $3.7bn. 10-year yields falling to 0.74% and AUD stronger at 71.65c. Asian markets firm with Japan up 1.33% and China up 1.16%

Today’s Highlights

ASX 200 up 77 to 6140
High 6144 Low 6063.
Big Bank Basket rises to $126.15
All Tech Index up 1.80%
Dow Futures up 176 currently.
Gold eases to AUD$2661.
10-year bond yield eases to 0.80%
AUD rises to 71.65c
Bitcoin rallies to $14320
Asian markets firm with Japan up 1.33% and China up 1.16%

STOCKS

ING +16.14% AGM address and update.
IRE +7.18% Investor presentation.
FLT +6.88% travel resumes.
PBH +7.10% change of director interest.
FCL -13.56% AGM presentation.
CWN +1.90% Inquiry focus.
PDL -5.99% broker downgrades.
DMP -3.16% who needs pizza when you have freedom.
TWE -8.19% China tariffs and AGM comments on Penfolds.
CRN -2.55% big trouble in little China/.
ESR -22.22% market unconvinced on assay results it seems.
TSO -9.46% profit taking.
VMT -4.65% run out of power.
WBT +11.36% rally keeps going.
TLS +1.83% TPG +3.86% signs of life in telcos.
GMG +3.70% positive update.
Speculative Stock of the Day: Synertec Corp (SOP) +78.95% on a Greentech business update on a pilot plant success.
Biggest Winners: ING, RDC, CMM, SLK, UWL, IRE and PBH.
Biggest Losers: FCL, TWE, PDL, HGH, CSR, LOV and RED.

TODAY

NAB (NAB) +3.26% FY cash earnings down 36.6% to $3.7bn vs consensus $3.79bn. Cash earnings ex-items $4.73bn vs year-ago $6.39bn. Final DPS 30c fully-franked. Revenue down 1.4%. Excluding customer-related remediation, revenue declined 1.5% mainly reflecting lower fee income given COVID-19 fee waivers and reduced transaction volumes in merchant acquiring and cards activities, combined with the non-repeat of asset sale gains in the prior year. Net Interest Margin (NIM) declined 1 basis point (bp) to 1.77%. Expenses rose 10.7%. Excluding large notable items, expenses were up 2.0% primarily reflecting costs associated with the implementation of NAB’s strategy refresh, combined with higher technology-related costs including spend to strengthen the compliance and control framework, salary increases and COVID-19 related costs. Group Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 11.47%, up 109bps from September 2019. Management comments, “in 2H20 we added a further $1,028 million in forward-looking provisions, bringing total provisions raised in FY20 to $1,856 million. The 2H20 increase reflects continuing uncertainty in the outlook combined with extra cover for specific sectors most heavily impacted by COVID-19. We are progressing well with our strategy refresh which is creating a simpler, more accountable business, committed to execution.”
Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (DMP) -3.16% Observes 8.4% same-store sales growth for the first 17 weeks of FY21. Group network sales up 14.9%, 74 new store openings over the same period. 3-5 year outlook: Repeats 3-6% annual same-store sales growth expectation. Annual net capex of $60-100m expected.
IRESS (IRE) +7.18% Q3 profit (constant currency) $14.6m vs year-ago $14.5m.Revenue $133.8m vs year-ago $130m. In Q4 FY20 expecting an increase in revenue vs Q3 FY20 as project work completes before year-end. Some H2 growth envisaged at the start of the year has been delayed due to macro environment. A higher than normal level of annual leave taken in December will reduce reported costs.
Coca-Cola Amatil’s (CCL) +0.40% There is speculation that Coca-Cola Amatil’s alcohol assets will be sold post-deal finalisation with CCEP. Advent Partners’ Tribe Breweries named as a potential buyer.
Inghams Group (ING) +16.14% Q1 trading volumes up 6.3% vs year ago. Notes solid progress in the reduction of poultry inventory levels with additional initiatives expected to further reduce inventory levels by the end of FY21. Anticipated feed cost reducting in H2 of FY21. Dividend policy has been reviewed and revised with a payout ratio of 60-80% of underlying NPAT vs previous policy of 60-70%. The interim FY21 dividend will be determined under this revised policy and expected to be paid in April 21.
Goodman Group (GMG) +3.70% Q1 total assets under management $51.7bn. 2.9% like-for-like net property income growth in its managed partnerships. Occupancy 97.8%. Weighted average lease expiry of 4.4 years. Development work in progress $7.3bn. FY21 Guidance reaffirmed, sees operating earnings per security of 62.7 cents, up 9% on FY20. FY distribution 30cps. Management comments, “the current global environment has reinforced the consumer need for convenience and heightened the use of technology. This has continued to accelerate the adoption of physical infrastructure necessary to support e-commerce, including warehouse and data centre space.”
Estia Health (EHE) -4.78% Outside of Victoria, occupancy within the Group’s homes averaged 93.7% during Q1 and spot occupancy at 31 October (excluding Victoria) was 93.2%. Total Group occupancy averaged 91.3% during the Quarter and spot occupancy was 89.7% at 31 October. Total revenues for the quarter were $158.9m.
Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia (GMA) 1.44% Q3 underlying NPAT $27.4m vs year-ago $26.5m. Gross written premium $143.8m vs year-ago $114.6m. Net earned premium $79.7m vs year-ago $76.2m. New insurance written $7.84bn vs year-ago $6.42bn. Loss ratio 63.5% vs year-ago 52.9%. Genworth’s regulatory solvency ratio was 1.79 times the prescribed capital amount ratio on a Level 2 basis at the end of September.
Scentre Group (SCG) +2.15% All 42 Westfield Living Centres continue to remain open and trading. 92% of retailer stores are now open and trading (including Victoria), with more stores in Victoria to reopen over the coming weeks. During the 10 months ended October 31, the group had collected $1.62bn of rent, an increase of $746m since June 30. The group collected $187m and $203m of gross rental billings in the months of September and October respectively. Portfolio occupancy was 98.4% at the end of September. Q3 total comparable-store sales (excluding Victoria): Specialty stores down 1.9%, majors up 1.0%.
ASX (ASX) +1.67% October volatility 0.8% vs year-ago 0.6%. Expected future volatility (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200 VIX) increased to an average of 20.9 vs year-ago 13.6. Total capital raised $7.63bn vs year-ago $5.70bn. Average daily number of trades down 12% vs year ago. Average daily value $5.24bn vs year-ago $4.48bn.
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) -8.19% Has been advised that the China Alcoholic Drinks Association (CADA) has submitted a written request to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) that imports of Australian wine in containers of two litres or less into China be subject to retrospective tariffs. Trading update: Is increasingly optimistic on prospects for earnings recovery from H2 of FY20 in each of its markets outside of China. Saw progressive recovery in demand throughout the Asia region in Q1, with depletions up 14%. In China, positive momentum continued through the mid-Autumn festival and Golden Week holiday period. Asia Americas: Focus 9 brands continues to outperform the market in retail channels, growing 32% in Q1. Australia & New Zealand: Above $10 price points driving retail market growth; TWE’s masstige portfolio growing ahead of the market in Australia, up 21% in Q1. Europe, Middle East & Africa: Demand through retail channels remains strong, TWE’s portfolio grew 17% in the UK through Q1. Long-term value creation expected from a separate focus for Penfolds and TWE’s other premium brands. TWE is currently prioritising focus on trading performance, delivering structural changes in the US and responding to the China Ministry of Commerce investigation. Work in relation to the potential demerger of Penfolds has been paused, and TWE is assessing internal operating model opportunities to deliver long-term value through a separate focus across its brand portfolios.
Flight Centre (FLT) +6.88% Revenue for September was $25m, about 12% of its normal level, or $38m with government subsidies included. Current net operating cash outflow $40 at the end of September. Cash and investments $1.69bn at the end of September. Given the global corporate business’s heavy domestic weighting, low-cost base, strong sales trajectory and account pipeline, FLT expects it to return to profit on a month-to-month basis before the leisure business and possibly late in FY21. The global leisure business, which has a higher cost base and a heavier international travel weighting, is expected to follow in FY22, although the recovery in both sectors will largely be in the various governments’ hands.
Baby Bunting (BBN) +1.36% Temporarily closes distribution centre due to insects. Insects were found in an imported shipping container. Dandenong South DC has been temporarily closed for inspection and treatment. All retail stores remain open, with some recalls of product. Additional costs will be incurred with the containment and treatment plans.

ECONOMIC NEWS

The ABS reported earlier today that the September trade balance increased to $5.6bn from $2.6bn in August.

Exports rose 4% month-on-month and imports fell 6% month-on-month.
NSW Budget gives payroll tax cut in an effort to lure business from other states.
Assets up for sale in recycling program.

COVID – 19 NEWS

China will temporarily suspend entry by non-Chinese U.K. nationals who hold valid visas or residence permits.
The UK Treasury announced Saturday it would extend furlough payments at 80% of employee wages until Dec. 2 to support workers during a second lockdown that starts Thursday.
Texas recorded more than 9,000 new cases in a 24-hour period, the steepest daily increase since Aug. 4.
France reported an additional 385 coronavirus deaths on Wednesday, while the use rate of intensive-care unit beds reached the highest level since late April.
Greece is heading to a national lockdown after reporting Wednesday 2,646 new Covid-19 cases in the past 24 hours.
Denmark has found a new CV19 strain in Minks. 17m now need to be slaughtered.

BONDS

ASIAN NEWS

Singapore’s biggest banks posted better than expected third-quarter profit results. DBS Group Holdings Ltd. saw net income fall 20% from a year earlier and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. posted a 12% drop as lending income slumped and provisions rose,

EUROPEAN AND US HEADLINES