The ASX rose 7 points to 6192 in narrow range trading. All the action was on AGMs and quarterlies. Dow Futures up 100 points on yet more stimulus hopes. Getting a little passe now. The Big Banks all doing well today as WBC got court approval to end the AUSTRAC saga with a big fine. Maybe they could BNPL it? The basket back up to $127.46. MQG joined the fun up 1.0% but others becalmed. CSL held an investor day today and slipped 1.3%, big miners slightly firmer with BHP up 0.6% and RIO up 1.2% though it was FMG turn to miss out. Industrials mixed and very stock specific, ORA up 8.0% after media speculation on a takeover and a business update. Tech was mixed with the All Tech Index down0.7 %, APT steady (ish) at higher levels, with MP1 falling 13.2% on an update. In corporate news, LYC up 4.2% on its quarterly production numbers. PPS up 20.5%,Q1 funds under administration $31.24bn vs quarter-ago $20.29bn. EML down 2.4%, Q1 EBITDA $10.0m vs year-ago $3.2m. Gross debit volume (GDV) $4.85bn vs year-ago $3.21bn. TPW down 17.2% despite Q1 EBITDA of $8.6m- greater than the full year FY20 EBITDA. Retail Sales Softer than expected – starting to see a slowing of the recovery and not just due to Victoria. Potential effects of stimulus being withdrawn. 10-year yields back up to 0.80% and the AUD firm at 70.80c. Asian markets mixed again with Japan up 0.4% and China down 0.3%

Today’s Highlights

• ASX 200 up 7 to 6192.
• High 6206 Low 6181. Narrow range. AGMs dominate.
• Big Bank Basket rises to $127.46
• All Tech Index down 0.7%
• 8 trading days until the US election.
• Dow Futures up 87 on stimulus hopes. Again.
• Gold rallies to AUD$2709
• 10-year bond yield rallies to 0.80%
• AUD rallies to 70.80c
• Bitcoin rushes to US$12245.
• Asian markets mixed with Japan down 0.5% and China up 0.2

STOCKS

• WBC +0.97% fine finalised by court.
• CSL -1.3% investor day fallout.
• COH -0.26% Macquarie remains bullish.
• WOW -1.33% Citi upgrades to a buy.
• OVH +23.19% IRE scheme to go ahead.
• LOV +7.15% retail buyers back.
• ORA +7.97% takeover speculation.
• BTH +6.09% can gets bigger.
• PLS +7.89% renaissance in lithium stocks continues.
• TPW -17.18% updates disappoint.
• MSB -4.41% disappointment continues.
• MP1 -13.16% lacklustre update.
• WSP -12.20% update fails to fire.
• AVA -5.69% profit taking.
• POS +12.50% nickel boom.
• Speculative Stock of the Day: Douugh (DOU) +54.55% the boys are back. No news is good news. Big volume again. Punters rev each other up again.
• Biggest Winners: OCL, AD8, ORA, PLS, LOV, BTH, JLG and WHC  .
• Biggest Losers: TPW, MP1, DTL, FCL, PPC, MSB, GNC and ADH.

TODAY

• Orora (ORA) +7.97% Named as a potential target for PE firms. Newswires speculate the share price correction since the Covid-19 crisis began has put the company within the grasp of a number of private equity funds. Adds ORA’s US operations have underperformed but one factor that makes the company attractive to private equity is that it owns its own real estate.
• Coronado Global Resources (CRN) -2.30% Q3 ROM production 6.6Mt, up 6.6% vs pcp. Saleable production 4.6Mt, down 1.9% vs quarter ago. Sales volumes 4.9Mt, down 3.3% vs quarter ago. Revenue US$376m, up 23.7% vs quarter ago. In FY21, sees production of 16.5-17.0M tonnes, currently trending toward the upper end of the range.
• Praemium (PPS) +20.54% Q1 funds under administration $31.24bn vs quarter-ago $20.29bn.
• EML Payments (EML) -2.43% Q1 revenue $40.6m vs year-ago $23.2m.EBITDA $10.0m vs year-ago $3.2m. Gross debit volume (GDV) $4.85bn vs year-ago $3.21bn.
• Temple & Webster Group (TPW) -17.18% Q1 EBITDA of $8.6m- greater than the full year FY20 EBITDA.FY21 has started strongly with high growth continuing to deliver operating leverage. YTD Revenue (1 Jul to 19 Oct) up 138% vs pcp. October revenue growth still in excess of 100% which is pleasing given the start of peak trading months. Contribution margins continue to run ahead of the 15% target.
• St. Barbara (SBM) -0.68% Q1 gold production 72,990oz, in line with preliminary announcement. AISC $1,711 per ounce vs quarter-ago $1,301 per ounce. Maintains FY21 production guidance, sees consolidated gold production of between 370-410Koz at an AISC of between A$1,360 and A$1,510 per ounce.
• Lynas Corp (LYC) +4.18% Q1 NdPr production 1,342t vs quarter-ago 775t. Total REO production 4,110t vs quarter-ago 2,579t. Invoiced sales revenue $87m vs quarter-ago $38m. Average selling price $20.2/kg vs quarter-ago $19.8/kg.
• Dexus Property Group (DXS) +1.98% Forecasts FY21 DPS consistent with FY20’s 50.3c vs consensus 47c. Office portfolio Q1 occupancy by income 95.4% vs quarter ago 96.5%. Occupancy by area 95.3% vs 96.6%, weighted average lease expiry (WALE) by income 4.3 years vs 4.2 years. Industrial portfolio Q1 occupancy by income 94.8% vs quarter ago 95.6%. Occupancy by area 97.6% vs 97.9%, WALE by income 4.1 years vs 4.1 years.
• Atlas Arteria (ALX) -0.32% Q3 weighted average toll revenue down 4.0% vs year ago. Q3 weighted average traffic down 4.7% vs year ago. Traffic and revenue in Q3 2020 recovered strongly following the impact of various government policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic implemented during Q2 2020. The recovery in traffic was particularly strong in France and Germany where traffic returned to, or exceeded, levels achieved in the summer holiday months of July and August 2019.
• Mortgage Choice (MOC) +5.19% Observes the increase in mortgage activity expected throughout FY20 has been maintained into Q1. Q1 application volume up 28% vs year ago. Approvals up 25% vs year ago, fueled by an uplift in owner-occupied activity including first home buyers.
• Service Stream (SSM) -0.45% Notes results will be more noticeably biased to H2 than in prior.COVID-19 response and associated border restrictions, continues to have a negative impact across some programs of work. Annual earnings are expected to remain resilient, supported by the Group’s long-term contracts.

ECONOMIC DATA

Retail Sales Softer than expected.

• The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 1.5% (-$448.6m) from August 2020 to September 2020.
• In seasonally adjusted terms, Australian turnover rose 5.2% in September 2020 compared with September 2019.

• There were falls in turnover in Food retailing, Household goods retailing, and Other retailing, in September. Despite the month-on-month falls, these industries continue to trade at levels above September 2019.
• Every state and territory, except the Northern Territory, fell this month. NSW, Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia, led the month-on-month falls.
• Victoria recorded a minor fall in September following a fall of 12.6% in August when the Stage-4 restrictions in Melbourne, and Stage-3 restrictions in regional Victoria were introduced. Victoria is the only state where turnover remains below levels recorded in September 2019.
• In seasonally adjusted current price terms, the preliminary estimate shows the September quarter rose 6.8%. This follows a fall of 2.3% in the June quarter. Quarterly volume estimates will be included in the final release on 4 November 2020.

The Future Fund has its highest cash balance since June 2018 at around 30%.

COVID – 19 NEWS

• Singapore raises its social gathering limit to eight. Not really that social.
• Virus what virus? More than 3.4m Japanese, or almost 3% of Japan’s entire population — put the risk of virus infection aside to turn up for the opening weekend of “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba the Movie: Infinite Train,”

BONDS

ASIAN NEWS

• Ant Group clears hurdle for IPO.
• Cathay Pacific to cut 5000 jobs. Drops Dragon. Expects to operate well under capacity at 50% for 2021.
• Yuan rallies to strongest in two years.
• One BoJ Board member has warned the central bank must move quickly if CV19 harms the economy.
• Macau casino operators are expected to post a combined loss of more than US$800m in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization for the quarter ended Sept. 30. casino industry has seen gaming revenue plunge by no less than 90% for six straight months.

EUROPEAN AND US HEADLINES

• European and US earnings season continues.
• US Anti-trust lawsuit against Google is similar to the one launched against Microsoft which led to the creation of Google.
• Goldman to plead guilty in probe of 1MDB.
• Trump has outspent Biden in final push. Only $63m left in the coffers. Lucky he is a billionaire.
• Netflix subscribers below estimates as lockdowns end.
• Berkshire Hathaway pays a US$4.1m fine over Iranian sanctions violations.

And finally…

“What do you call cheese that isn’t yours? Nacho cheese.”

What’s the best thing about Switzerland?

I don’t know, but the flag is a big plus

Did you hear about the mathematician who’s afraid of negative numbers?

He’ll stop at nothing to avoid them.

Clarence

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