Todays Highlights

• ASX 200 closes up 8 to 5849. Late tariff talk lifts at close.
• High 5877 Low 5832. Tight range; low volume.
• For the week the index is up 3.2%.
• Late news of Trump drafting trade deal.
• AUD firms to 71.36c on trade numbers. Beat forecasts.
• MQG beats forecasts as usual. Banks slip slightly.
• Miners pick up.
• Energy stocks under pressure on oil price.
• AUS consolidates at higher levels of 71.98c
• Bitcoin firms to US$6353. Remarkably stable.
• Aussie Gold rises slightly to $1712 on lower USD.
• US futures down 45 points.
• Asian markets stronger with Japan up 1.23% and China up 1.90%

STOCKS IN FOCUS

• REA +2.98% attracting some bargain hunters.
• TLS +1.32% spring shoots. Send in the drones.
• GXY +13.16% lithium stocks on a strong rally.
• KDR +14.16% rally on brokers upgrades.
• PME +8.67% bouncing hard.
• ORI +6.43% results show worse is over.
• MYO +5.36% KKR at the gate with more money.
• CZZ –3.58% bid increased to 2100c.
• CSR -6.96% glass business proves toughened.
• CTD -8.96% sell off resumes.
• VOC +4.28% change of director’s interest.
• WGN -7.67% broker downgrades.
• PGH -5.22% not getting any better.
• NHF -3.51% profit taking kicks in.
• MRG -69.03% resumes trading after recapitalisation.
• BWX -2.88% broker downgrades.
• NAB -0.55% end home loan discounting.
• FXJ -5.26% sliding to oblivion. Along with NEC -3.98%
• CCP -2.91% profit taking after results.
• AVZ +18.75% on better lithium outlook.
• YAL -6.82% slumps on thin volume.
• BYE +12.00% attracting interest again.
• Speculative stock of the day: Whitehawk (WHK) +117.50% after announcing a Cyber risk framework agreement with US Government. Sounds impressive. Whitehawk up not Blackhawk down.
• Biggest risers – GXY, ORE, PME, PLS, SPL, SIG and ORI
• Biggest fallers – CTD, WGN, CSR, YAL, FXJ, PGH and NEC

IN THE NEWS

• CSR Limited (CSR) –6.96% Hopes to sell troubled Viridian glass business by the end of the year. There are some interested parties, but no firm offer has materialised, and it is hard to determine whether a deal will be struck in the desired timeframe.
• Greencross (GXL) – Trading update and halt.Takeover coming. Strong performance in group revenue (+7.6%) and like for like sales growth (+5.4%). Overall conditions remain challenging. GXL continues to deliver cost-out but does not expect any changes in EBITDA in H1 due to lower cost capitalisation and reinvestment in strategic initiatives.
• Macquarie Group (MQG) +3.86% Posts 1H net profit of $1.31bn vs $1.29bn consensus. The company ended its share buyback. EPS $.88. The group currently expects the FY19 result to be up approximately 10% on FY18, despite the impact of future market conditions making it difficult to forecast.
• MYOB (MYO) +5.36% Agrees to open its books to KKR after the private equity firm lifted its takeover offer from 370c to 377c. The offer values MYOB at $2.23bn. Last month, KKR bought 17.6% of MYO from Bain Capital at a price of 315c per share.
• Orica (ORI) +6.43% Impairment charges lead to a $48.1m net loss in FY18. ORI was hit by $372m in one off items, including a $204m charge to its Minova business. Taking out significant items profit was down 16% on year to $324m. A final dividend of 31.5c was declared, bringing the full year payout to 51.5c, in-line with the previous year. CEO Alberto Calderon said the company is well positioned to deliver improved earnings in 2019.
• Spark New Zealand (SPK) –1.90% Reaffirms FY19 EBITDA and dividend guidance at its AGM. EBITDA is expected to be in the range of NZ$1.025bn and NZ$1.055bn. Dividend guidance maintained at 25 cents per share.
• Capilano Honey (CZZ) +3.58% Looks like the Bid vehicle, Wattle Hill and Roc Partners Investment Funds is upping its offer from 2006c to 2100c according to media reports. The stock is in a trading halting pending more information.

ECONOMIC NEWS

• Retail turnover rose 0.2%  in September 2018, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

From the ABS release  

CURRENT PRICES

• The trend estimate rose 0.2% in September 2018. This follows a rise of 0.2% in August 2018 and a rise of 0.2% in July 2018.
• The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.2% in September 2018. This follows a rise of 0.3% in August 2018 and a relatively unchanged (0.0%) result in July 2018.
• In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 3.5% in September 2018 compared with September 2017.
• The following industries rose in trend terms in September 2018: Other retailing (0.6%), Cafes restaurants and takeaway food services (0.5%), and Food retailing (0.2%). Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing was relatively unchanged (0.0%). Household goods retailing (-0.2%) and Department stores (-0.1%) both fell in trend terms in September 2018.
• The following states and territories rose in trend terms in September 2018: Victoria (0.3%), New South Wales (0.2%), Queensland (0.3%), South Australia (0.2%), and Tasmania (0.5%). The Australian Capital Territory was relatively unchanged (0.0%). Western Australia (-0.1%) and the Northern Territory (-0.9%) both fell in trend terms in September 2018.

BOND MARKETS

• 2-Year bonds yield up 4bps to 2.04%
• 5-Year yields up 5bps to 2.24%
• 10-Year yields up 5bps to 2.70%

ASIAN MARKET NEWS

• Chinese market buoyed by Trump trade talk.
• An ex-Goldman Sachs banker has been charged in connections with the 1MDB scandal in Malaysia.
• This is the crux of the trade dispute with China IP theft. A state-owned Chinese company has been charged with theft from Micron, a US company.

EUROPEAN AND US HEADLINES

• EU floats Irish backstop. Could be a game changer in negotiations. Sterling surges.
• Trump says talks going nicely with Xi Jinping. Tells cabinet to draft an ‘agreement’ just in time for elections Tuesday. #MAGA.

• UK house prices are growing at the slowest pace in five years. Average house now in UK is GBP214,534 down from GBP214,922 last month. Growth fell from 2% in September to 1.6% in October, far below the 2%-3% range recorded over the previous 12 months. Slowdown has been blamed on Brexit fears.
• Big week in US next week. Midterms and Fed meeting.
• And finally, Usain Bolt has left the building. Shame.

And finally….

A wife was making a breakfast of fried eggs for her husband. Suddenly, her husband burst into the kitchen.

“Careful,” he said, “CAREFUL! Put in some more butter! Oh my gosh! You’re cooking too many at once. TOO MANY! Turn them! TURN THEM NOW! We need more butter. Oh my gosh! WHERE are we going to get MORE BUTTER? They’re going to STICK! Careful. CAREFUL! I said be CAREFUL! You NEVER listen to me when you’re cooking! Never! Turn them! Hurry up! Are you CRAZY? Have you LOST your mind? Don’t forget to salt them. You know you always forget to salt them. Use the! Salt. USE THE SALT! THE SALT!”

The wife stared at him. “What in the world is wrong with you?You think I don’t know how to fry a couple of eggs?”

The husband calmly replied, “I just wanted to show you what it feels like when I’m driving.”

Have a great weekend

Clarence

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Target is a $1000 in teh next month…think I am up to $350…come on let’s make this happen.

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