, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Morning sports fans,


It has been a torrid week and I would expect some confidence to seep back into the market. The banks were trying to find a base ..like a blind man groping in the dark and finding something hard to hold onto! Anyway I suspect with the budget looming next week no one will want to be a hero and go into it too long or too short..so some book squaring with be the order of the day..oversold stocks will attract the buyers and MQG numbers will also provide cheer..Banks should do well or better as the bond market is showing some signs of respite..ANZ XD today ..

NAB are still in a trading halt as they try to put away the $5.5bn rights issue…no wonder the banking index has been smashed when the instos get to put their hands in their pockets for that amount of dosh.They have to sell something to pay for it so its hardly a surprise that the banks are under the cosh..however at the end of the day NAB will be a vastly different and cleaner beast for investors so long term this is probably a good thing…Interestingly the new man at the helm of NAB seems to be a doer..unlike others in the sector who are content once they have reached the top of the greasy pole just to sit their ,pay big divs,get the shareprice up and retire very wealthy with the odd board position..not so for Andrew Thorburn…looks like a man on a mission…good to shake things up a bit…

macbank cream

Talking of men on missions, Nick Moore (and More) at Macquarie has just revealed a terrific set of figures-beats forecast and up 27% to second highest ever…this one will roar back from its recent falls…expect to see it back in the 80s pretty quickly…

This one should push way back up…just like STO did!

All the turmoil in the equity market is nothing compared to what is happening in the Bond Markets..especially in Europe..as growth appears(albeit modest) the spectre of inflation and higher rates long term is starting to wipe the smiles off the bond traders faces..

This is the big story and the biggest game in town..yields in Euro Zone were at their highest levels of the year.


Idea of the Day-Diversification out of Australia

One of the most crowded trades in this country is SMSF owning banks and TLS…most of the SMSF money is invested in the ASX stocks..now diversification away from Australia is sometimes tricky..one way, is to look at LIC’s or ETF’s.I was the guest yesterday of an LIC  called PGF which is run very successfully by a guy named Paul Moore..good presentation …anyway the LIC in question is trading at a big discount to its NTA which is mostly explained by an up and coming options expiry which will dilute shareholders and raise another $100m for the fund to work with…the fund invests in good business overseas in US dollars..so you have exposure to the Aussie dollar if it falls and the performance of names like Wells Fargo,ING,Heineken and Zombieland stocks too. They have a great track record and I expect once the option issue is resolved the stock will climb back towards its NTA which on a diluted basis is around $1.16 ish… 10% upside from here in 3-6 months…the man himself is very keen to exercise his options and put more money in at a dollar so a good vote of confidence…if you want to buy a cheap way in then it might be worth looking at the options but remember you will need to find another dollar by the end of June!Coming up fast!

Things to make me go mmmm!!!

Yesterday I attended the roadshow of PGF where Paul Moore from this LIC talked about strategy and what is happening in the world…now we have all heard about Negative Bank rates but he said that in some Nordic countries they have Negative Home Loan rates…just think about that for a second..you go to the bank and borrow $500,000 to buy a house and not only do you not pay any interest but the bank actually pays you to borrow from them!!!It is a mad world indeed…

UK election looks like a hung Parliament with the Tories in the box seat, Lib Dems gone and Labour a distant second…should be fun for Cameron to form a government..he may even have to go back to the polls again in the next six months..Scottish devolution will be on the cards and “UKrexit”(British Exit) will also be a focal point as he has said he will hold a referendum on EU membership within a year..

Lower oil prices as Iran has said they will increase production as sanctions are lifted.$60 seems to be the sweet spot for oil now with some sort of equilibrium reached here…

Alibaba earned 48 cents a share, 6 cents above estimates and revenue also beat Street forecasts.

US 10 year yields rose initially to 2.27% before renewed buying helped ease the yield to near 2.19%. 30 year yields topped 3% before trading back down to 2.92%

Iron Ore slipped slightly but still above $60.

Had some good interest in our IPO Medlab in the Nutraceuticals space…happy to discuss if interested..

JB Hi-Fi has maintained its full-year profit guidance despite a step-up in sales in the March quarter as consumers snapped up new smart phones and tablets.

Recently divorced South32 is to  be added to S&P/ASX 200 Index at the close of trading May 15; Toll (TOL) to be removed.

Woolworths grand strategy seems floored to me…They are talking about more home brand staples in their supermarkets…now I am a simple man..if I am faced with No Name Cole or No Name Woolies or a Weird German sounding brand from Aldi I will just pick the cheapest..that cannot be a good way to compete…surely they are cutting their own throats..we shall see..only have to look at Tesco in the UK which is no name heaven to see how badly that can turn out…WOW to be a problem child for a while..prefer Coles…

And finally….

Dear Abby,

My husband is a liar and a cheat. He has cheated on me from the beginning, and, when I confront him, he denies everything. What’s worse, everyone knows that he cheats on me. It is so humiliating. Also, since he lost his job 14 years ago, he hasn’t even looked for a new one. All he does all day is smoke cigars, cruise around and shoot the bull with his buddies, while I have to work to pay the bills. Since our daughter went away to college he doesn’t even pretend to like me, and even hints that I may be a lesbian. What should I do?

Signed: Clueless

Dear Clueless:

Grow up and dump him. Good grief woman! You don’t need him anymore! You’re running for President of the United States.

Act like one.

VE day anniversary 70 years. Lest we forget.

Have a great weekend



nailed it

Get a Global take on things at www.ntmarkets.com