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Morning sports fans,
We live in interesting times indeed…the US markets last night recovered from their Friday Dummy spit…well some anyway…buy backs and Apple helped…buybacks continue to drive the market in the US..
I think it is safe to say that US rates are going to rise in the next few months…the crisis settings that the Fed has had in place for so long now seem a little out of place given their jobless rate at 5.5%…GDP going along nicely so what the *** are the Fed worried about…clue is the US dollar…if they raise rates even a smidge the US dollar will rise and with it sinks the fortunes of the US markets…every country around the world has been engaged in currency wars…it seems to be the only way to grow your economy is to whack your currency to encourage exports ,raise import prices and thus inflation and hope the debt magically disappears!!!
We got absolutely belted yesterday as a holiday in Melbourne plus weaker Dow, weaker China and profit taking from hedge funds in yield stocks combined to hit us hard…only a flesh wound and hardly unexpected given we have rallied from 5300 to 6000 since Draghi and Glenn chipped in…today we will rally..not much as the imperative to hold stocks is fading as they go ex div…also there are a number of uncertainties on the horizon…Greece isn’t as sorted as previously thought…we have Cockey Hockey’s Second Magus Opus to look forward to and the UK elections..plus the market looks expensive…riddle me this one Batman…one local fund which is parked substantially in cash at the moment is raising more cash from investors…what does that say about the market…
So here is my road map on the market…rally today by around 25 points to take us back to 5850 then wobble again in the next week to slip to around 5700-5750 by which time the silly chaps that arrived late will be shaken out and then the build towards 6000 again with an end of year target of 6200…suspect the Aussie dollar will continue to bounce around with a gradual move closer to 70 c on the odd days of shock news…
Idea of the Day
Patience grasshopper…when markets move up fast it is easy to get sucked along for the ride..easy and fun whilst it lasts but then we get days like yesterday and investors feel duped that the market is not going up forever…well it doesn’t and pullbacks are normal and healthy ..smart investors use pullbacks to top up holdings in stocks they like and then reap the rewards when everyone else is charging in like a bull in a China shop..
BHP go ex div tomorrow..if there is any correlation to RIO and what they did ex div there should be more downside to BHP once they lose the Div…Iron and Oil aren’t helping and dollar relatively stable between 77-78c…probably the right time to switch from BHP to RIO in coming days…maybe the Glencore bid will liven things up a bit!@!!If it comes again!!!At least they will be allowed to bid so rumours will swirl…
Things to make me go mmmmmmm!!!!
As a Englishmen abroad, it would be so nice to win at a sport that we invented!!!I mean really how hard can it be!!!!
The major Iron Ore producers continue to pump record amounts of rust into China..at ever decreasing prices…RIO has got robot trucks..now they have robot trains as well…some would say that robot management especially given their record in buying assets at the wrong price but I digress…still mining boom is well and truly over!!!
Yet more buybacks in the US driving prices higher….General Motors shares rose after the company set a $5 billion stock buyback and said it would raise its quarterly dividend to 36 cents from 30 cents.
Apple watches…why? I mean really $350 for a wrist band that tells you stuff about your health…haven’t we got those already(and cheaper)…and they tell you what music you are listening to…I have two of thise they are called ears!!…the world must be in bull mode if we can all afford to buy these overrated products….I won’t be getting one and I suspect that this may be one of Apple’s less successful ideas…
Here’s one successful business in Greece… their shipping magnates control 23 percent of the world bulk carrier fleet…according to the Union of Greek Shipowners, they make up more than 7 percent of the Greek economy and providing 192,000 jobs in 2013. Looks like a target for new kid on the block, Vardontfukit. Poor man is flailing around as he tries to come up with a plan..any plan that the Troika will believe…good luck!!!
Chinese inflation numbers today…Japan’s GDP was somewhat underwhelming yesterday..but at least they avoided a recession..for now..
From Bloomberg.. “Japanese investors were net buyers of major overseas sovereign debt in January, except that of the U.K., underscoring their appetite for higher returns as the Bank of Japan’s unprecedented easing suppresses bond yields”. Looks like Mrs Watanabe is getting a little more adventurous with her money these days…needs must in an ageing population..
Saw yesterday that Tesla are chopping 30% of their staff in China as sales have not been a s robust as they would have liked…just too damn expensive…pretty cars though
Good to see Jokin’ Joe and Fairfax in court…very dignified from the Treasurer…
Ever man(and woman) and his dog are now in the downgrading banks biz…Gold man sucks have joined the fray today moving to underweight… I remain a Buy the Banks, Die with the Banks kind of guy…however the explosive growth for them is well and truly over…think of them at AAA rated corporate bonds with a near 5% fully franked yield…my bank index is over 200 still….so hardly cheap..in fact could easily drift back to 190 and below ..so maybe the big boys are right…
And a bonus cos I love my readers…
Wife texts husband at work on a cold winter’s morning;
“Windows frozen, won’t open.”
Husband texts back;
“Gently pour some lukewarm water over it.”
Wife texts back 5 minutes later;
“Computer totally f–k e d now.”
Have a great Tuesday….