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Morning sports fans,
US markets were going gangbusters until a last minute hitch to the funding of the country surfaced and derailed things a little..having been up a tad over 200 closed up 63…retail sales a big boost..car sales the standout..seems it’s a bit tricky to nail down the 1 Trillion dollar funding…always is..
Don’t you love Uncle Fester..or Glenn Stevens at the RBA..just when every economist and analyst in the known universe has come out with predictions for a rate cut, Glenn comes out and says everything is just where he wants it except for the dollar and that he believes that stability and certainty is the key to regaining confidence and an uptick on the economy..so looks like he has just taken the cut off the table…really..the economy is just where he wants it to be…must have a warped sense of perspective then!!!
Spot the difference?
Anyway despite a soggy SPI I suspect we may rally a little today..even though Oil is still stuffed…punters will not want to be short going into another volatile weekend so book squaring and some bargain hunting perhaps..I still reckon we will see 5150 before Xmas and my target is now 5000 before you should load up the big guns…the sad fact of global markets is that the US is like a Black Hole..sucking in money from around the world now as it looks the only economy that superficially is going ok…will mean that the US dollar continues to find favour ..our dollar will continue to be pressured and with it our market…I suspect the MYEFO will be horrible with the finger pointing and blame game to bring a new level of unedifying conduct from our so called leaders in Canberra( a planet far, far away).They really don’t get it do they..stop playing politics and start leading the nation for all of us..anyway don’t get me started…
Small bounce as banks attract some buying and even oils perhaps!!
Idea of the Day
One of the really good things that we do here is the Disruptive lunch series where Start Ups and others in the tech space give us a brief 15-20 minutes …really interesting companies and some of the best yesterday…with Chimp Change and Expert 360…suspect we will be hearing a lot more of these two in the future especially impressed with Chimp Change which allows person to person transfer of money effortlessly..ran this past my daughter last night ..said she does it all the time..just gives them the money..no, I said what about if you aren’t with them…bank transfer …yeah but not that easy in the US where despite massive advances in keeping our heads buried in our smart phones, simple things seem to allude them..car design for one..modern fire engines, healthcare etc, anyway this Chimp Change APP is designed especially for the US ..here we take this stuff for granted..I reckon it’s going to be a drug dealers dream …
Anyway lots of talk about big data…analysing data and using it commercially is the future…we are all happy to share so much of ourselves with mystery companies it is scary..very Orwellian what the net knows about us….but they are all benign aren’t they..just trying to make the world a better place…aren’t they?…..but there is one company that I saw yesterday Invigor Group (IVO) which looks pretty interesting in this space..seems there are a lot of promises but these guys could be heading in the right direction..IVO is the code..it’s a highly speculative tiddler..but really liked the management..they have done it before and are harnessing the omnipresent wifi in our lives to help big shopping centres ,big brands etc ,connect with their customers better…One for the brave(or silly) but this is the future ..like it or not..data mining, big data and big brother is the most powerful force in the world …good or evil..we shall see but money to be made along the way…at 8c these babies could prove a leveraged way to play this emerging dark art!!!
It was my stock tip for 2015 for my radio spot yesterday!!
Things to make me go mmmmm
Leighton Holdings has confirmed the sale of its John Holland construction business to the China Communications Construction Company for $1.15 billion to strengthen its balance sheet.
Greece continues to fall in a hole…another wipe out last night…ashes to ashes…pretty soon I will be able to do the Greek Urn joke…classic for Morecombe and Wise fans!!
Unemployment at 12 year high of 6.3%…gonna be a glum Xmas for the retailers I suspect…sorry Gerry, sorry Bernie…and the Sydney weather really not helping..one minute rain, next minute storms, next minutes burning sun…looking like a sequel to the Day after Tomorrow.
Oil drops below $60 a barrel as Saudi’s say why should we cut production…things have a way of working themselves out that is what the market is about after all…which means we will continue this kamikaze approach until we have driven the US Shale out of business..much like RIO,BHP and Vale are doing in the Iron Ore market.
Now every country around the globe is trying to get their currency down to help export growth and stimulate incoming inflation…except if it goes too far …witness Russia which has had to raise its interest rates to 10.5% to defend the Rubble…sure it should be the ‘Barney’…that will be my name for it from now on anyway..didn’t work it seemed as it dropped another 1.6%..it is the worst performing currency this year and the worst stock market with Greece also in the mix!!
Here’s an oil currency too …Norway’s Central Bank cut their key policy rate 25bps to 1.25% overnight. The decision, picked by only 1 of 16 surveyed economists, took interest rates back to lows last seen at the height of the GFC.
Greek unemployment fell from 26.0% to 25.7% in September. Though it is still some 18.4% above the pre-crisis peak of 7.27% struck in May 2008.
In China.. the Shanghai comp swung from up 0.9% to down as much as 1.6% before closing down 0.5%. The index’s 10 day volatility surged to the highest level since 2009.
Bradken has opened its books to Pacific Equity Partners and Bain Capital Asia, after they submitted a $872.1 million takeover proposal last week.
Red Fork Energy has become the first Australian scalp from the oil price plunge, with the group sliding into receivership late on Wednesday. It had raised more than $125 million from investors during the past three years but collapsed after it was unable to refinance a $100m debt facility from US firm Guggenheim Partners.
Some years ago I talked and bought for some clients a company called Alexium which can add fire retardant capabilities to fabrics for the US army…bought them around 8-10 cents..hit 50 yesterday…patience grasshopper…
Oil engineering firm, WorleyParsons is facing a steep drop in earnings as a result of the oil price plunge and may be forced into another round of cost cutting, analysts warn.
And finally….quick summary…from www.zerohedge.com
A professor travels to Africa to live with a primitive tribe and spends years with them, teaching them all about the wonders of science and mathematics. He makes friends with the tribes Chief and his wife, and they all live happily for some time. One day, the Chief’s wife gives birth to … a white child!
The word spreads and the entire tribe is in shock. The chief pulls the professor aside and says, “Look, you’re the only white man we’ve ever seen around here, and my wife just gave birth to a white child. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what happened!”
The professor replied, “No, Chief. You’re mistaken. What you have here is a natural occurrence, what we in the civilized world call an albino! Look at that field over there. All of the sheep are white except for one black one. Nature does this on occasion.”
The chief was silent for a moment, then said, “Tell you what. You don’t say anything more about that sheep and I won’t say anything more about that white child.”
Have a great day..on Sky Biz at 5.30 to finish the week…