Morning sports fans,

 

A slightly quieter night overseas to lead us in today but Apple numbers were good so that will help sentiment…IBM delivered a shocker and abandoned its 2015 forecasts so the Dow (IBM is a component) was significantly worse that the S&P…but still the US looks like a shining beacon in a sea of economic mediocrity…The German economy is heading for a recession so Zombieland will remain just that for a long time to come…

Yesterday we had another rush of blood to the head as we continue to bounce off the low at 5162 …if we retrace the 50% of the fall I would suggest we will hit 5412 before the rally gives way…as we head into Melbourne Cup there will be a flurry of floats ,not least of which will be Medibank Private…all eyes on that one..but everyone will want to get in by Xmas ..suspect there will be lots of rubbish out there but $5bn of Medibank will suck some of the liquidity out of the market ensuring a less enthused Santa Rally perhaps..

Nice to see gold have a bit of a move…also interesting to see how attractive a lower Aussie dollar has made some of our businesses…yesterday we saw Ferrovial bid for Transfoeld…an American private equity firm has had a look at parts of Cabcharge..there seems to be smoke at TEN…lots of rumours and Fairfax apparently had some discussions with them about a merger..there is blood in the water and the sharks are circling…personally I would steer well clear of TEN but there is always someone looking to turn a business around…cut costs,headcount and content cost…easy blueprint to follow..just they seem to have been unable to follow it up til now…the problem with TEN is 7 and 9 are so strong and TEN always sneaked in as the youth channel..actually just The Simpsons really..but the Gen Y s and Z s don’t watch TV…if they do its pirated ,youtube or in big doses so who is their audience apart from masterchef and the Biggest Loser fans…and can we stop with the whole Batchelor thing…who cares!!!!!

Idea of the Day

Well the prospectus is out for Medibank Private…we should have some access to the float through the broker bookbuild…If you are interested in the float and a lot of people are then I can send you a prospectus…they are raising between 4.5-5.5bn!!!It’s a lot…but I suspect that the float will be a goldilocks float..not too hot..not too cold…government wont want to be seen to be selling a taxpayer owned asset to the tax payer at too cheap a price and similarly wont want to stitch up the poor old taxpayer either..so should be a slow burn story..very inefficient and lots of scope for cost out…of course the CEO being paid $4m odd is a cost in but that’s another story…also our good friends at ANZ will even lend you m oney to buy the stock and opening a margin account may be a way to go..again I have details if you email me…

But this is the ANZ margin details… A 75% diversified IPO LVR will be applied to MPL holdings within diversified portfolios up to 60% portfolio lending value concentration. A standard 65% LVR has also been approved for MPL.

 

So the crucial dates to bear in mind are these….

Prospectus lodged Monday 20 October

–  BBY can participate via Broker Firm offer

–  Retail Offer opens Tuesday 28 October

–  Retail Offer closes Friday 14 November

–  Final Pricing Tuesday 25 November

–  Settlement Friday 28 November

And the metrics…

–  Price Range $1.55 – $2.00

–  FY2015 PE range 16.5-21.3x

–  Dividend Payout ratio 70-75%

–  FY2015 Dividend Yield 3.5-4.5%

Things to make me go mmmmmmm!!!

 

RIP Gough.

 

Apple blew the bloody doors off after hours with earnings per share at $1.42 on revenue of $42.1 billion, both beating estimates. Sorry Samsung seems the king is back!

 doors off

 

In dinosaur industries, IBM lost 7.1 percent, the biggest decline since April 2013, to $169.10. The company said it will provide an update on its projections in January, ditching a five-year plan to boost profit. With technology customers moving from owning hardware to storing data in the cloud, IBM is now cutting more jobs, reducing its forecast for free cash flow and handing over an unprofitable chip unit to Globalfoundries Inc.

ibm_5110_full

An Indian footballer has died doing a somersault to celebrate his goal!!

The Islamic State is earning about $2 million a day, or $800 million a year, selling oil on the black market, according to one estimate.The terrorist group is producing 50,000 to 60,000 barrels a day.

Copper fell to levels near a six-month low touched in the previous session, weighed down by uncertainty over China’s economic growth, while nickel sunk to the lowest level in seven months.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the outlook for the region’s biggest economy has “clouded over.”

Profit for S&P 500 companies probably rose 5.9 percent in the third quarter — a forecast that’s been revised upward from an increase of 4.8 percent as of Oct. 10 — and sales increased 4 percent, according to analysts.

Yesterday in Japan ,the Government lost two ministers…. To lose one may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness….anyway didn’t stop the Nikkei that went ballistic as the Japanese pension slush fund said they would double its equity allocation to 25% and Abe suggested that his sales tax hike may be postponed due to the fragility of the economy…

oscar

Pacific Equity Partners has cancelled the sale of its $600 million stake in credit reporting business Veda Group…apparently the bids were not high enough…still we now know there is a big overhang!

And finally…..

ga of teh wee

Have a great Tuesday

Clarence

XXXX

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Get a Global take on things at http://www.ntmarkets.com

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