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Morning sports fans,
Have you ever set a table with your best dinnerware and as it looks perfect, decided to change the table cloth…the safest way would be to take everything off and start again…OR you could do ‘the pull the tablecloth routine from under the China’…now there are two methods 1.The quick pull and it’s all over..much like a Band Aid or 2.you could pull it gradually and hope that it comes out clean stopping every now and then to check that the plates are still on the table…this trick is much like what the Fed is trying to achieve as it pulls the white linen money from under the market…..they hope that no one notices and that it comes out clean with a huge Taaa Daaa!!!Over the last few nights we have seen the Fed have to check that the plates are still there because one or two appear to have shattered on the floor…one or two members have been back tracking on interest rate rises and there has even been the spectre raised by Yelling of QEIV…I mean really..no one is fooled by this…it appears that the volatility has coincided with the Fed leaving the building and the dummy spit of the markets…of course shove in a disaster that is the Zombie Zone and a hint of disease panic and you have a cocktail of pessimism….big mood swings ..big volatility…big volume…and china crashing all over the place…fun and games all around..the real trouble is that every one for so long has been long…complacent for so long… betting the same way and when the herd changes it gets ugly…I believe there is more ugly to come..I just have to look in the mirror every day!! But for the moment even the computers are tired of the swings and slides…
Looks like Merkel and Hollande?
Sent this to clients yesterday but worth another look..
Yesterday our market defied my expectations..after a slow start due to futures expiry we saw the ASX 200 fall away to be down a vast 80 odd points to 5162 before the buyers emerged and proved me wrong..Lazarus like we closed up 9 points..well done guys…so the big question is have we found the bottom? Well, have we? I do not believe so, as having seen a correction or two in my 35 years in this business, it’s a bit like a bouncy ball, it drops ,it bounces and then it runs out of juice and the bounces get smaller until the ball settles at the bottom and drifts away and usually runs under a nearby car so you can’t get it!!So I reckon we could see the big 5000…big call but think it is possible …we shall see but for the moment everyone is tired so a calmer day as we regroup…
Idea of the Day
Big question is the Yield guided missile back…seems that way as banks have rallied hard…Murray seems to have faded into the background but judging by MOC’s numbers the other day things are still pretty good in mortgage land..
Look for the 6% yields in the banks..they have rallied a lot..now up to 173…my rudimentary bank index..just add them together…anyway below 170 is better…
And loads of IPOs before Xmas coming…not all that glistens is gold…Medibank gonna be the gorilla…
Things to make me go mmmm!!
Poor old Bronny has missed out on an International gig..shame…not really sure what the IPU does anyway…sure she would have been brilliant at it though and well paid!
Now to put some things into perspective…have we as a generation since WW2 just got so soft?..our parents and grandparents had to endure world wars on epic scales and let’s think about the deaths from Spanish Flu in 1918 (20m+) then a flu pandemic from 1957 to 1958 killed around 2 million people worldwide, including some 70,000 people in the U.S., and a pandemic from 1968 to 1969 killed approximately 1 million people, including some 34,000 Americans(they are the important ones after all). Of course that is not to mention the mass carnage of the trenches ,Hiroshima, Hitler, Stalin etc…. and now we get faux outrage on twitter…in the words of David Walsh of MONA fame…Harden Up!
A Reuters poll has revealed that 50% of Americans are intending to avoid international air travel.
Is this the bottom of the barrel? WTI rallied 1.9% to $83.31 and Brent crude added 0.6% to $84.31 a barrel. Time will tell..
The Fed’s Bullard added that US fundamentals remain strong and he blamed recent market turmoil on European downgrades. Weekly jobless claim dropped 23,000 to 264,000, the lowest level since 2000. Officials said there were no special factors effected the result despite the Columbus Day holiday.
Janet due to speak tonight…should be more calming words…that tablecloth again…
Goldman Sucks reported a 50 per cent jump in quarterly profit as last month’s pickup in bond market activity helped to boost trading revenue…see someone loves volatility..
A biotech firm that’s using a pineapple root extract to treat diarrhoea in pigs has begun trading on the Australian Securities Exchange…question has to be why?
CBA has unveiled a new tech innovation lab in Sydney ..as it declares tech is ‘life and death’ to the bank!
REA Group is seeking to build its stake in the $470 million iProperty Group, bidding for shares in an institutional bookbuild overnight at the lower end of the price range of $2.70 to $2.75 a share. Looks like one of the founders in cashing up 25% of its holding…that seemed to be a well-kept secret.
Iron ore down 2.7% to $US80.32/tonne
France looking shaky again…go on Mario..give us a ‘whatever it takes’ moment! They need it!! And from our Greek chums bearing false gifts.. Greece’s 10-year yield jumped 104 basis points, or 1.04 percentage point, to 8.90 per cent, the biggest increase since July 2012.
What’s the definition of irony…Big Rupert ,the sun king ,lecturing Central bankers and finance bods on stimulus making the gap between rich and poor wider..and according to News Corp chief executive Robert Thomson , Google is a “platform for piracy” whose power “increases with each passing day”.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the benchmark gauge of options prices known as the VIX, fell 4 percent to 25.20, after surging 15 percent yesterday to the highest level since 2012. Almost 12 billion shares changed hands in the U.S. yesterday, the most since October 2011.
A little old man shuffled slowly into an ice cream parlour and pulled himself slowly, painfully, up onto a stool.
After catching his breath, he ordered a banana split.
The waitress asked kindly, ‘Crushed nuts?’
‘No,’ he replied, ‘Arthritis.’
Have a great weekend…