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Morning sports fans,

Well how much fun was yesterday…not…couple of big announcements plus news from HK derailed any chance of a rally..it did try briefly,it did but fell over again and as we end the quarter I would expect to see more selling…my call of 5200 looks a little softly softly…maybe I was NOT bearish enough…anyway patience is being rewarded for those who listened.I would be happy to start dipping my toe back into the water at around that 5200 level …banks have been the main culprit of the sell down..that and Iron Ore stocks(Ore down again last night to $77.70).US is falling away now too as HK becomes another global flashpoint..if the Chinese lose control of the colony then a few others may get some ideas..probably don’t need that right now…

My rudimentary bank index is now at 169 (Big four share prices added together)…yield is around 5.6% fully franked…when the index gets to 158-160 its time to pin back your ears for 6% fully franked…another 4-5% fall perhaps…

The muppet instos are at it again…are these boys just plain stupid…yesterday they told the directors of Treasury Wine that 5.20 or close to that wasn’t enough…no far better to see the stock tank to $4.20!!!Makes complete sense…these are the same idiots that knocked back the private equity bid for QAN all those years ago…and that ended well…so now TWE have the long hard road to try and turnaround the business to prove the greedy instos right….you wouldn’t feed these guys …really stupid move..anyway I believe that buying around 4.30 in TWE will be rewarded over time..but may take a while…I would have been happy to take the $5.20 and move on…

muppets

Idea of the Day-MYR

This one is a sitting duck …lost its way and weekend at Bernies has done a spectacularly crap job..how he is still employed is beyond me but there you go…if I was on the board he would have been jettisoned long ago…anyway I firmly believe that this one will get taken over…Solly Lew ,fresh from his DJ’s adventure is just dying to turn this one into a giant Smiggle department store…I mean he even has the best retail man in the country, Mark Mc Innes, who is doing a great job with Premier. Solly must be salivating at the chance to get his hands on one of his pet icons..he has a window..DJS is in new hands and so likely to be distracted from the main game, so between now and Xmas is game on…Myer’s free cash flow, which was A$142.5 million in the retailer’s latest fiscal year, would be enough to repay the costs of Lew’s takeover…Premier’s stock price has more than tripled since the end of 2008 through last week. By contrast, Myer has fallen about 50 per cent since its 2009 initial public offering. Lew was on the board of Myers for 17 years so he knows the culture and what an ironic legacy to leave…anyway in the 190’s will be rewarded in the next six months..

smiggle

Things to make me go mmmmmmm!!!

Volatility is back…big trading range yesterday with 50 points down to 8 points then back to 50 off again…

I find it amazing that Bill Gross, the 70 year old billionaire bond fund manager from PIMCO, has jumped ship…when the going gets tough, he jumps..to a rival..and now the liquidation party begins..this could have huge ramifications to world markets as money leaves PIMCO and hits Janus…appropriate really as he is the god that has two faces!!!PIMCO has started erasing Bill from its online memory as all his tweets have been deleted..

janus

In China…Chinese markets will be open today before closing on Wednesday for a seven day break for National Day and then Golden Week ….China will start direct trading between the yuan and the euro today as the world’s second- largest economy seeks to spur global use of its currency. Data today is the final HSBC manufacturing PMI for September. The preliminary reading was 50.5.

Lynas announced a deeply discounted rights issue at 8c..now I have been a fan of this one and have traded a few for clients and got out before the stock went south again…phew!!

“There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.” Clever Elizabethan guy…

Anyway, there is coming a time to look at LYC again..not quite yet but very soon..very soon…

This I find amazing…gives you some perspective… land sales in 300 Chinese cites fell almost 50% Y/Y to 415.9 billion yuan in 3Q, while residential land sales declined more than 50% to 265.3b yuan in 3Q.Now the amazing thing is they have 300 cities!!!I mean here in the “Lucky Country’ we have four!

US vs China main assets_0

This is good…In Spain, the PM has declared that a democratic vote in Catalan for independence is PROFOUNDLY ANTI-DEMOCRATIC.

 

Record debt and slowing global growth is a recipe for disaster? Developed economies, that’s a joke, now owe $100 trillion !!!!Need Intergalactic bailout next time!!

Medibank Private has been valued at more than $5 billion…pre-register your interest now..

Lots of numbers coming out in the next few days…In Europe we’ll receive CPI data from the Eurozone, France and Italy, unemployment figures from the Eurozone, Germany and Italy, PPI data from France and Italy, German retail sales, French consumer spending along with the final read of Q2 GDP and Nationwide house price index from the UK.In the US will also have to digest consumer confidence, Chicago PMI and the latest Case-Shiller house price index along with GDP and PPI figures from Canada…busy busy…suspect all will tell a similar story of a patchy US recovery, Zombieland going nowhere and “whatever it takes not really working!”

And finally….

After being married for thirty years, a wife asked her husband to describe her.

He looked at her for a while, then said, “You’re an alphabet wife … A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K.”

She asked, “What the hell does that mean?”

He said,” Adorable, Beautiful, Cute, Delightful, Elegant, Foxy, Gorgeous, and Hot.”

She smiled happily and said, “Oh, that’s so lovely … But what about> I, J, K?

He said, “I’m Just Kidding!”

The swelling in his eye is going down and the doctor is cautiously optimistic about saving his testicles.

Have a great Tuesday…back on Sky Biz at lunch time..why not ring in for a chat!!

 

Enjoy the volatility ,it’s back!!

Clarence

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Any financial product advice contained in this email is general financial product advice only and does not take into account any one person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, before acting on any financial product advice in this email, you should consider, with or without the assistance of an independent adviser, the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Get a Global take on things at www.ntmarkets.com

Get a Global take on things at http://www.ntmarkets.com

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