Morning sports fans,
“The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he did not exist. And like that… he is gone.” Where is that quote from?
I was reminded this morning whilst up early to do brekkie biz tv that this quote is relevant to the current Fed…their greatest trick is going to be to remove the stimulus without anyone noticing they have gone until like that…. they are gone! In September perhaps…
More selling last night in the US especially in the small caps which have got way ahead of themselves…I am confused I must say…US 10 year rates are 2.5% and Spain is 3.1%….does that seem wrong..on so many levels…anyway money is pouring into US binds at the moment as there is nowhere else to go really and the punters are pulling back their buying on the equity market..volumes are still pretty anaemic both here and in the US which have its quietest day of 2014 the other day..and shock horror the script failed last night…Tuesdays are an up day..60% of the time its right every time.
Anyway I expect to see more weakness today after 140 off the Dow and Iron Ore looking sad…too many short term headwinds to get bullish..takeovers excepted..I would probably steer clear of buying any consumer stocks too..GST rise fears will push more to online…and as the bottom 50% of society get whacked ,the top will be embarrassed to spend up big on luxury items like food and energy..expect the confidence numbers to feed through the economy in real numbers…biggest winners will be the wealth managers and financial services stocks over time as the massive scare campaign on pensions will mean that people will have to make their own arrangements…shouldn’t it be that way…anyway it will be a growth area of the economy..Super duper..love someone to tell me what is happening with the NBN BTW…
Idea of the Day
This is one of the I told you so moments..sorry but yesterday TWE jumped 20% on a approach from KKR, the Barbarians at the Gate, for the company at $4.70…as Sherlock said the game is afoot..have been saying this for over a month now as the new man on the job gets his feet under the table,its the perfect time to pounce..and they have..stock is up 25% since I recommended them, so to those who followed my advice are sitting pretty..I will say it again..this one will not be around in a years time!!! Maybe even sooner at this rate…but bid is only likely to be around $5.00 I reckon so upside is limited from here
Anyway I was asked on Sky this morning what I liked…well I talked about TLS yesterday and the stock went up 2 cents..won’t talk about it again as every broker under the sun is now talking it..the last refuge of the ‘scoundrel’…it’s the default when nothing else takes your fancy..but it will go up…
Remain cautious..I still believe we will see 5300 before June 30..
Things to make me go mmmmm!!!
Good debut from Gemworth the mortgage insurance peeps from the US…GMA is the code..
In the UK …£400m -The expected valuation of ‘Game’ at its flotation. The video game chain went bust two years ago.
Iron Ore slipped again last night…why is the Aussie dollar so high?…not sure..I wrote a while ago that I saw 94 as doable and that would probably be it..well it is…and now I reckon we will see sub 90 as the Pollies fight and the bickering starts on the budget..edifying sight..will see more of Clive Palmer..that’s a scary thought and good to see the Murdoch press now coming out and questioning Bill Shortens lack of policy details…didn’t he learn that from Phoney Tony?
Lots of chatter around Overseas TV companies doing deals with TEN..maybe they will take their breakfast show..no one else seems to ..anyway the price hasn’t moved which is surprising ..expect a pop to 29 c very soon!!!
TLS nine year highs!!!
US bond yields are tumbling as Fed Member Dudley suggested the new norm (no, not the one on the remake of Cheers) is lower locked in rates for a long time.. DUDLEY: “LONG-TERM RATES LIKELY TO BE LOWER THAN HISTORIC NORM and EQUILIBRIUM REAL RATE MAY BE LOWER THAN NORMAL”
And as he said that ..falling off a cliff!!
Yellen (not screamin) has emphasised the central bank’s full-employment goal, stressing the need for progress on the broadest measures of joblessness, including the number of people out of work long-term and those who can find only part-time positions.
Focus is on the BOJ today as they have a quick get together for monetary policy..whilst in Zombieland Super “Whatever it takes’ Mario is sizing up for a June 5th meeting where he will start panicking and perhaps cut rates…really..rates cut from 0.5% to 0.25% is the answer…possibly even negative rates..really..is that the best you can do..Zombieland has systemic problems as France and Italy continue to go backwards..look at the UK for answers..just pump up property prices in London through massive overseas players getting a bolt hole and watch the wealth spread far and wide as the good old House ATM is back…so bring it Super Mario….give it your best shot..no growth/no inflation a fact of life for the Euro…
First Queen are coming back with an American Idol runner up..he wasn’t even the bloody winner and now Led Zep have been accused of ripping off a song for Stairway to Heaven…is there no end to this madness!!!
Have to say though the song in question..Taurus by Spirit is remarkably similar in places!!!
‘Phoney Tony’ and ‘Whiney Pyney’ have cancelled their Uni visits as protests grow..at least Jokin’ Joe had the kahunas to front Q&A on Monday..good for you Joe…
From the US ..General Motors has now recalled 15.2 million cars globally: or a stunning 56% greater than the 9.7 million cars GM sold in all of 2013!
This is odd…these guys are one of the biggest cash buyers of property in the US…and now this…BlackRock ‘s Chief Executive Officer Laurence D. Fink said the U.S. housing market is “structurally more unsound” today than before the financial crisis.
And finally….keep the jokes coming sports fans…
Married 50 years –
After being married for 50 years, I took a careful look at my wife
one day and said, “Fifty years ago we had a cheap house, a junk car,
slept on a sofa bed and watched a 10-inch black and white TV,
but I got to sleep every night with a hot 23-year-old girl.”
“Now …. We have an $800,000 home, a $50,000 car, a nice big bed and a large-screen TV, but I’m sleeping with a 81-year-old woman.
It seems to me that you’re not holding up your side of the bargain.”
My wife is a very reasonable woman.
She told me to go out and find a hot 23-year-old girl and she would make sure that I would once again be
living in a cheap house, driving a junk car, sleeping on a sofa bed and watching a 10-inch black and white TV.
Aren’t older women great?
They really know how to solve an old guy’s problems!
Have a great Wednesday
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