Morning sports fans,

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It’s a bounce Jim, but only just. Last night we saw a rebound in the Dow and especially the NASDAQ  with the Facebooks of this world rising around 2%. The global social media index rose 2.4%. Alcoa also kicked off the US reporting season with better numbers and rose 2% after hours…was a bit of a NASDEAD cat bounce though! We also saw the IMF downgrade its world growth forecast last night to 3.6% from 3.7%….one day they may even get it right…

 

 

 

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Still Aussie dollar is kicking along…must be time for the Gov’ner to start his jawbone machine up again!

 

Gold higher…rumours of Russia invading parts of eastern Ukraine..this ain’t over yet and the sanctions don’t seem to be working..one Russian last night was very happy….think football!!Oil higher and Iron Ore looking good too…

 

Big news here this morning is that David Jones have been bid for…surprise is that the bidder is Woolworths of SA!!!Looks like MYR have been left at the altar….unlucky Bernie…but it does raise the prospect of a fight now for this icon of Australian retailing…bring it on…bid is $4.00 cash and you get to keep the 10 cent div..

 

 

 

 

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So expect an interesting day in retail land with some strength there with possibly the exception of MYR which now looks a bit foolish!!Rest of the market will take heart from the NASDEAD bounce and the commodity price rises and push ahead a little..volume will be thin again…suspect we will see 10-15 points on the clock..maybe a bit more…

 

Still be cautious my friends we are getting towards the ‘Sell In May’ area and US reporting season is upon us…plenty of room for cold weather disappointment..

 

 

Idea of the Day-Iron Ore stocks AGO and FMS

 

Iron ore stocks have been the big winners recently and the strength in the stocks has helped keep our market immune to the Dodgy Jones falls…two stocks that look good in this space are AGO and FMS…not for the faint hearted the FMS and are speccy but they have leverage and at 2.5c they have some good upside…if ore stays around 118…AGO is a more conservative bet and they are recovering slowly but suspect there is more to come…could see 110 pretty easy..we have some research on FMS if interested..

 

Things to make me go mmmmm!!!

Chelsea through to the semi-finals of the Champions league….go boys!!!2-0 at home enough to squeeze through on away goals.

 

Rules are there to be broken it seems..especially in Child care .. Childcare operator Affinity Education has increased the price it is willing to pay for growth, announcing it will buy 51 centres in an $80-million deal that is equivalent to about two-thirds of its market value. The deal is a sign that two major corporate operators, Affinity and G8 Education, are willing to break their own internal rules on how much they will pay to buy up centres in the fragmented sector, which is dominated by independent operators.

 

Yesterday new wine kid on the block Michael Clarke head of Treasury Wine seems to be on the right track..Investors seem to be happy at least for the time being..this one is worth keeping an eye on..their are some big predators out there..we know that from DJS..and this would be a tasty morshel for them..the brands are the key and then working them harder and getting the supply chain right…maybe Clarke can do the job..maybe he won’t get the chance..with so much money in corporate coffers it’s just a matter of time before someone unscrews the cap on this one and has a big quaff!!!I am betting on a takeover in the next six months!!

 

Arabica coffee is soaring, extending the large gains seen since late last week as dry weather forecasts for Brazil stoked fears of a dismal crop. The benchmark May Arabica coffee contract on ICE Futures US was up 8.2 cents, or 4.2 per cent, at $US2.0155 cents per lb by midday in New York.

 

VIX or Fear index at 14.9..up another 4.4% last night…

 

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin has some good news, and some bad news. First, the bad news. There’s a good chance the U.S. stock market will see a 10 percent drop sometime during the next 12 months. Reckons it’s a 67% chance but the good news is he sees the Dow higher by year end…his track record is pretty crap though ..he was 300 points off on his 2013 forecast!!!!

 

Iron ore up to 118.25 too!!!

 

ERA faces the prospect of having to buy in uranium to meet supply contracts because of the prolonged closure of the operation’s processing facilities. Processing was stopped in December following the collapse of a leach tank at the site.

 

Genworth Financial’s float of its $2 billion Australian mortgage insurance division has hit a snag because the US parent faces a lawsuit over allegations it misled investors over the outlook for the Australian business in 2012

 

Only one out of six Americans could correctly locate Ukraine on a map of the world. Thought that was pretty good really…not many know their ass from their elbow!

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The BoJ concluded the two day policy meeting and refrained from adding extra stimulus as officials assess the effect form the April 1 sales tax increase. The Board kept their promise to expand the monetary base at an unchanged  pace of 60 to 70 trillion Yen per year.

 

Data today includes Westpac Consumer Confidence, Home Loans, Investment lending and Home loan values.

 

 

And finally…..gotta love consultants!!!

Last week, we took some friends to a new Indian restaurant, ‘Muthu’s Place,’ and noticed that the Indian waiter who took our order carried a spoon in his shirt pocket. It seemed a little strange. When the waiter brought our water and utensils, I observed that he also had a spoon in his shirt pocket. Then I looked around and saw that all the Indian staff had spoons in their pockets. When the waiter came back to serve our soup I inquired, ‘Why the spoon?’ 

‘Well, ‘he explained, ‘the restaurant’s owner hired Andersen Consulting to revamp all of our processes. After several months of analysis, they concluded that the spoon was the most frequently dropped utensil. It represents a drop frequency of approximately 3 spoons per table per hour. If our personnel are better prepared, we can reduce the number of trips back to the kitchen and save 15 man-hours per shift.’ 

As luck would have it, I dropped my spoon and he replaced it with his spare. ‘I’ll get another spoon next time I go to the kitchen instead of making an extra trip to get it right now…’ I was impressed. 

I also noticed that there was a string hanging out of the Indian waiter’s fly. 

Looking around, I saw that all of the Indian waiters had the same string hanging from their flies. So, before he walked off, I asked the waiter, ‘Excuse me, but can you tell me why you have that string right there?’ 

‘Oh, certainly!’ Then the Indian waiter lowered his voice. ‘Not everyone is so observant. That consulting firm I mentioned also learned that we can save time in the restroom. By tying this string to the tip of our you-know-what, we can pull it out without touching it and eliminate the need to wash our hands, shortening the time spent in the restroom by 76.39%.’ 

I asked quietly, ‘After you get it out, how do you put it back?’

‘Well,’ he whispered, ‘I don’t know about the others, but I use the spoon.

Have a great Wednesday.

Clarence

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Any financial product advice contained in this email is general financial product advice only and does not take into account any one person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, before acting on any financial product advice in this email, you should consider, with or without the assistance of an independent adviser, the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Get a Global take on things at www.ntmarkets.com

Get a Global take on things at http://www.ntmarkets.com

 

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