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Morning sports fans,


Another day another record on the Dow etc…Eighth time so far….but not much really here to get excited about..expect another wishy washy kind of day where the computers will play. Gold was better which makes a change And we saw some buying yesterday of the bombed out resource sector…I have banged on about this for some time I know..but back in September 2011 you could have bought all the Aussie banks for $100…did suggest it..also suggested buying the Resource basket of BHP,RIO and FMG too at $100…now the tale of two sectors…banks, One hundred and eighty!!!!while Resources…doh!!!NAB were 21 bucks ANZ 18 CBA 44 and WBC 20…BHP were 35…puts it in perspective….


So where do we go to find Alpha(it’s the performance aspect )..it’s a bit like where’s wally…one of my higher profile competitors in the commentary space ,Charlie Aitken believes that the BHP demerger where they push Humpty off the wall will allow the hidden value to spew forth ,will propel the index to 6000 this year…dreaming! Charlie is always bullish ,it’s in his DNA ..let’s face it ,it is an investment bankers dream to spilt big Humpty into Good Humpty and Bad Humpty…after all they made a fortune when they put it together in the first place. But I can’t see anyone paying top dollar for the bad bit that BHP doesn’t want..maybe they will but although they talk of releasing the hounds I am skeptical on this one..my maths is 1+1 =2 not 3!!Anyway it will help the share price but let’s not get too carried away just yet..



We seem to be continuing this sideways movement..April is a funny month, Easter and Anzac and then the Budget ..seems everyone else is full speed ahead but we are stuck in the slow lane behind a Linfox!


Focus will be on the three, yes three , Chinese PMI reports today ….The non-manufacturing PMI is scheduled for 12 noon, then the HSBC Services PMI and the HSBC Composite PMI both at 12.45pm.Love these sponsors of indices!


Here we have  Retail sales data scheduled for 11.30 am today and is forecast to show a 0.3% rise. The trade balance for February is also out at 11.30am and is forecast to show a 800mil surplus, and down from the 1,433 million surplus in January.


Idea of the Day


I can’t decide whether to be cautious or full speed ahead…it is hard to see the banks pushing that much higher..of course they want fall too much either so for the index to push ahead we need the resources..not going to happen…I think the upside in OUR market is limited…more pessimism in the media as BP pulls the plug on Brisbane..Perth should be worried..and tough Joe Hockey to come…In this environment I would be looking at selling some calls against holdings…it gives you an income as well as your dividends and does give you a bit of downside cushioning…if the market goes into torpedo mode then ok you give away some upside but you still make money ..just not as much…


Have been taking a few profits in NTC by the way…the stock has run from 35 when I mentioned them to 60 in the space of a few months..gotta love a profit..last one I saw was Moses…and that’s not Obeid!!!



Things to make me go mmmmm!!


Not good news for one Russian this morning as my Chelsea have gone doen 3-1 in the Champions League to PSG! A lot to do at the bridge.


The “Arthful dodger” Sinodinis is giving eveidence today at ICAC…expect amnesia!


Retail spending and Uncle (Fester) Stevens speaking today in Brisbane


High frequency trader Virtu which was due to IPO has delayed its debut as the furore about the practice of legalized frontrunning  continues amongst the talking heads on TV.I mean these guys are good..They have only lost money on one day in five years.. The trading firm provides quotes in more than 10,000 securities and contracts on more than 210 venues in 30 countries, according to its IPO filing. This seems to be the house winning every day at the world’s biggest casino…call me skeptical but nobody is that good unless they are counting cards..and that is not on!!


Got to love this from Zerohedge…Zombieland according to the Russians…




Shares in the James Packer and Lawrence Ho-backed Melco Crown Entertainment rose to their highest level in two months in New York trading overnight. That followed new data from Macau that showed gaming revenues in the Chinese province grew faster than analysts’ forecasts during March. Revenues in March grew 13.1 per cent during the month to $US4.4 billion ($A4.8bn), according to figures released yesterday by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.


Seems that Russia is now overtly helping the Syrian administration with weapons and supplies…seems they have adopted a while new strategy called “Taking the Mickey “ out of Obama.It is working!


Another mass shooting at Fort Hood in the US..


Manhattan apartment sales surged 35% in the busiest start to a year since 2007, setting price records with the average price per square foot rose 24% to $1,363, the highest in 25 years of record-keeping.


Asos, the internet retailer targeting fashion, is to take a break from venturing into new countries until at least the autumn after admitting that its entry into China has been tougher than expected.The company on Wednesday reported a 22% dive in pre-tax profits to £20m for the six months to the end of February despite increasing sales by more than a third, as the cost of expansion weighed on its business.


Cameron Clyne retires to spend more time with his family…let the Hunger Games begin.


The Chinese Railway stimulus begins…Beijing has pledged to speed up railway construction, particularly in the nation’s central and western regions, and to offer more financing channels for the railway system. It added that projects that already had been approved would be “rolled out aggressively” and it said it would boost subsidies for some operations that were in the public interest.


Like this is ever going to happen!!! The Reserve Bank wants Australia’s biggest banks and building societies to pay a levy to help pay for a fund that will protect their own depositors in the event of a banking collapse.The central bank made the suggestion in its submission to the Abbott government’s financial system inquiry, the first such inquiry in 17 years.


QBE Insurance Group: CEO John Neal has vigorously defended the company’s disclosure practices, arguing he was “100 per cent confident” the global insurer had complied with regulations amid the threat of a potential shareholder class action.


World wide value of equities has soared to around $690 trillion …makes the US debt at $17.7 trillion a mere blip!


Loved this quote from a blog I follow which is relevant to the High Frequency debate!!


Between the idea

And the reality

Between the motion

And the act

Falls the Shadow


T S Elliot


And finally……from the outspoken boss of Ryanair in the UK…Bless!



On passengers who forget to print their boarding pass: “We think [they] should pay 60 euros for being so stupid.”


On refunds: “You’re not getting a refund so **** off. We don’t want to hear your sob stories. What part of ‘no refund’ don’t you understand?”


On customer service: “People say the customer is always right, but you know what – they’re not. Sometimes they are wrong and they need to be told so.”


On overweight passengers: “Nobody wants to sit beside a really fat ****** on board. We have been frankly astonished at the number of customers who don’t only want to tax fat people but torture them.”


On beginning a press conference to announce the annual results: “I’m here with Howard Miller and Michael Cawley, our two deputy chief executives. But they’re presently making love in the gentleman’s toilets, such is their excitement at today’s results.”


On the in-flight experience: “Anyone who thinks Ryanair flights are some sort of bastion of sanctity where you can contemplate your navel is wrong. We already bombard you with as many in-flight announcements and trolleys as we can. Anyone who looks like sleeping, we wake them up to sell them things.”


There is a whole book (!) of these Plane Speaking :The Wit and Wisdom of Michael O’ Leary


Have a great Thursday…on the Radio at 12.20 with my good friend Barry Preston if anyone listens to Newcastle radio…hi Trevor!



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