Over the weekend Uncle Joe hosted the G20 gab fest..and what a great success it was…a momentous commitment to improving world growth….would have thought that was a gimme really..isn’t that the aim at all times..but wait now they have a number to miss! Well done ..well worth while…let’s hope that the G20 actually does something to achieve that target…now if they only had a plan…where did I put it?
Anyway who cares, we are in a bull market right…looking at taking out 6 year highs and pushing further ahead as Corporate Australia has surprised the analysts…the biggest driver is once again yield…Last year I was banging on about how we could push a lot higher if only the big resource stocks joined in…well now they have ..BHP knocking on the door of $40,Rio $70 and FMG $6…back in September 2011 you could buy all four banks for $100 and BHP,RIO and FMG for $100 too…now banks basket $175(and let’s not even count the lovely dividends that have flowed) and the Resource basket $115…lot better than it was…
Expect a more muted start to the week as we digest the action of the last two weeks, back at the beginning of February we were languishing at 5100..now look at us..5450…nothing goes up in a straight line forever and we need a rest…ex dividends will knock some of the urgency or the FOMO out of the market but confidence is returning..I reckon by Easter we will have done our dash for the time being and things will get trickier..volatility is still massive but mainly within individual companies…disappoint and you get caned ,surprise and it’s an instant rerating…now call me cynical but I don’t know how investors can analyse a set of figures and immediately decide the company is 15% undervalued based on those numbers and then five minutes after the figures there it is…I reckon there are a lot of computers out there just jumping over each other and the huge jumps we have seen are not backed by real investors..still they keep going up..
Few ex-divs today will sap the momentum a little so expect some modest falls today before a regrouping..WES WPL and TLS amongst a few that lose some big divs today…
Idea of the Day -CWN
CWN casino last week announced a bit of a disappointing number mainly as a result of their Victorian casino biz…VIP revenue was down big time…is this structural or a blip..we shall see but as a result they have pulled back…I would be buying them now…the big attraction to me is Macau…it is huge and over the next five years will just get bigger and bigger..couple that with more Asians travelling as they get wealthier and Australia a premium destination it can only be good for Jamie and his crew…use the current pullback to top up..
To get some sense of the size of Macau.. $45.2 billion in revenue last year, is almost seven times the size of the Las Vegas Strip.
Things to make me go mmmmmm!
Huge success of Sochi…well at least there were no incidents…that’s the greatest achievement given the worrying lead up…
Another massive auction day on Saturday as the clearance rate topped 86%…Sydney house prices are rocketing led by investor demand…53% of all new loans are from investors..first time buyers are nowhere to be seen!!hardly surprising really!
Qantas will be interesting this week…big focus as are US GDP numbers later this week.
Here’s a US success story..Tim Leatherman…his private company makes the Leatherman tool… today, one in five Australians owns a Leatherman and the country is the company’s No. 2 export market after Germany. More than 100,000 of the tools are sold each year in Australia, while many millions are sold around the world.
China’s Finance Minister Lou Jiwei played down yuan declines and the risks from shadow banking as central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan signaled that the nation’s economy can sustain growth of between 7 percent and 8 percent.China’s expansion prospects are suitable for the nation and can boost global economic growth, he said.
Mexican security forces captured Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman early yesterday in the Pacific beach town of Mazatlan after trailing him for two weeks.
Dramatic events in the Ukraine…now have two presidents it seems!!lucky them…worryingly the eastern part of the country is pro Russia whilst the western part is pro Europe…trouble is the money is in the East.Lets hope they don’t fracture …important for the Wests gas supplies into Europe…still clever of the Ukrainians to revolt while the winter Olympics were on and Putin was distracted!
Seems though that the EU is ready willing and able to cough up some serious rescue money ($27bn) after the elections as long as certain conditions are met..
I took my wife to a restaurant over the weekend.
The waiter, for some reason, took my order first.
“I’ll have the rump steak, rare, please.”
He said, “Aren’t you worried about the mad cow?”
“Nah, she can order for herself.”
And that’s when the fight started…..
Have a great Monday..
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