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Morning all,

Apparently the taper and going to the Dentist have a lot in common. The whole thought of it is far worse than the actual procedure. Last night Uncle Ben donned his Santa suit and despite delivering a modest wind back on QEIII of 10bn, he gave all the kiddies something to cheer about. It’s Xmas time and why be the Grinch when you can play Santa. A record close on Wall Street last night and perhaps more to follow in the next week will give us a boost. Of course our market is under a huge cloud as the rest of the World improves and we go backwards…corporate Australia is suffering big time..one after another the so called blue chips have come out with some Xmas Grinch of their own….yesterday was the turn of WTF..I mean WTF!!!wiped out in a day!!

Aussie dollar getting whacked too…3 year low..gone are those little weekends away in Hawaii…shame…Iron ore slipping a little as was of course Gold so no where to run

So our market will rally as sure as profit downgrades follow profit downgrades..wonder who it will be today trying to sneak it in while everyone is wrapping presents and drinking Egg Nog! Anyone as usual Banks will lead the charge but I suspect that if it isn’t nailed down today it will rise..let’s go for a quick 50 and if the Dow follows through tonight maybe more to come…less than a week to go before we close down for Xmas but plenty of fuel in the tank…one of the reasons that SMSF and funds buy the banks is that the earnings are secure..(ish)…compared to the other surprises out there it hardly surprising that everyone loves them..5.5% fully franked yields no surprises and a great franchise..

Our market has been a massive underperformance recently.. Aussie market has underperformed US market by 7.8% since 28th Oct highs… or 13.9% in USD!….coincided with the dollars’ decline as overseas guys see better value elsewhere…can’t blame them either…hard to see to many reasons to get really aggressively interested in the ASX 200 if you are a hedge fund in Asia or the US…but a rising tide will help all the boats…there has been a huge amount of goodwill to all men squandered this last month as fundies and hedgies have sucked up to their broking pals for good allocation to the sexy new floats..don’t shiny things always appeal…and then of course when they come on the free money wasn’t there..how dare they lie to them..how dare they not hand out free money..how could the punters been such suckers…well there is one born every minute but the appalling performance of new shiny issues has hurt a lot of people and they aren’t happy!!!Waaaaaaah!!!

Idea of the Day

ben sanat


Financials to rally ….all those lovely dividend cheques now hitting doorsteps!!

Things to make me go boommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!


The fear index collapsed back to complacency yesterday with a fall back to 13.8 down 15%.

Bitcons finally came back to earth with a thump..crazy stuff really ..a made up currency invented by an anonymous mathematician…embraced by the Chinese just long enough to suck some idiots in then dumped!!!

BTC 12.18 (1)

bitcon photo


‘BERNANKE REITERATES HE WAS ‘SLOW TO RECOGNIZE THE CRISIS’   But his choice words for his recipe for success…”It requires, obviously, some luck and some good policy.”

Federal Reserve officials raised their assessment of the outlook for the job market, predicting the unemployment rate will fall as low as 6.3 percent by the end of next year, compared with a September projection of 6.4 percent to 6.8 percent.

Amcor’s: demerged $2 billion Australasian packaging and distribution business, Orora, has ended its first day of trading on the Australian Securities Exchange at $1.22 per share, at the lower end of analysts’ forecasts.

And then there were two… Bega Cheese boss Barry Irvin says he plans to turn his attention to other targets after announcing yesterday that the company would not pursue Warrnambool Cheese & Butter after its offer closes tomorrow.

REA Group is holding a Investor briefing at 1pm Sydney time in relation to MD, CEO Greg Ellis resignation….should be interesting!!!Suspect this one is a buy  now…

GPTis set to increase the cash component of its takeover bid for Commonwealth’s office landlord in a move that may assuage investor anxiety at the stock’s recent price swings. The property heavyweight’s sturdier balance sheet means it can assume more leverage than arch rival DEXUS, which has paired up with Canada’s Pension Plan Investment Board, in the race to acquire Commonwealth Property Office Fund.

Woodside Petroleum: says the cost of developing its massive Browse gasfields through an LNG processing plant at James Price Point had soared to more than $80 billion, a figure that dwarfs any other resources project in Australia and highlights the nation’s high-cost environment.

Wotif.com’ major Mea Culpa on Marketing and wage cost blowouts coupled with the sluggish tourism sector led online travel agency Wotif.com to issue a stark profit warning yesterday that pulled the rug out from shareholders and sent the company’s shares into 32 per cent nosedive. As a result, Wotif.com co-founder Graeme Wood, who sold two million shares at $4.45 each in October, saw about $50 million of his personal wealth disappear. Good sale in October though….always wise to follow the directors money!!!

More than 5 percent of Spanish residential mortgages were in default in the third quarter, up from 3.5 percent a year earlier, according to data released today by the Bank of Spain.Recent changes to the mortgage criteria have led to more foreclosures and pain in Spain as it goes mainly down the drain!

Happy Birthday Brad Pitt…50!!!And far more importantly Keef is 70!!!This is the most amazing story of survival…beats the pants off Shackleton …Keef has faced down far more white powder!


And finally……………..a Xmas story!!!


When four of Santa’s elves got sick, the trainee elves did not produce toys as fast as the regular ones, and Santa began to feel the Pre-Christmas pressure.
Then Mrs. Claus told Santa her Mother was coming to visit, which stressed Santa even more.
When he went to harness the reindeer, he found that three of them were about to give birth and two others had jumped the fence and were out, Heaven knows where.
Then when he began to load the sleigh, one of the floorboards cracked, the toy bag fell to the ground and all the toys were scattered.
Frustrated, Santa went in the house for a cup of apple cider and a shot of rum. When he went to the cupboard, he discovered the elves had consumed all the cider and hidden the liquor…. In his frustration, he accidentally dropped the cider jug, and it broke into hundreds of little glass pieces all over the kitchen floor. He went to get the broom and found the mice had eaten all the straw off the end of the broom.
Just then the doorbell rang, and an irritated Santa marched to the door, yanked it open, and there stood a little angel with a great big Christmas tree.
The angel said very cheerfully, ‘Merry Christmas, Santa. Isn’t this a lovely day? I have a beautiful tree for you. Where would you like me to stick it?’

And so began the tradition of the little angel sitting on top of the Christmas tree.

Not a lot of people know this.


This is my penultimate morning email for the year unless I feel the need to write whilst in the Avalon office next week…

Have a great Thursday



Any financial product advice contained in this email is general financial product advice only and does not take into account any one person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, before acting on any financial product advice in this email, you should consider, with or without the assistance of an independent adviser, the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Get a Global take on things at www.ntmarkets.com

Get a Global take on things at http://www.ntmarkets.com