It is getting to be an all too familiar story at the moment ”Aussie Blue Chip announces another downgrade-gets hammered!” Yesterday QBE joined the casualty ward as its North American biz imploded…another familiar story there too..how many Aussie companies have come unstuck in the US…seems to be most!!!
Anyway as the US marches ever higher it seems the ASX 200 continues to fall ever lower. Hardly surprising given the rubbish management that is manifest and the lack of Government leadership on anything…so for my year end prediction of 5600 to come true it’s gonna take a miracle…I am gonna be off on this I think…Santa does seem to have gone AWOL at the moment..although this upcoming period for the next two weeks is a good one for 80 % of the time that the market rallies 100% of the time…
I missed my email yesterday as I was sick..bad cold at the moment but show goes on..decided to give it to the office today!!
We have now fallen over 5% from our high back on 11th November…it is now time to get back in there and start buying…the engine that drove us up ..the banks are starting to look attractive and at least these do not have any earnings surprises unlike most other things….I would start with NAB and WBC then CBA/ANZ….they are all off around 10% and probably deservedly so….did get a bit silly …..as I have written before the next leg up would have to be the BHP’s etc that have made heaps from the stable Iron Ore price but they have only held firm whilst everything else has been whacked..I suspect we will start to get some buying now in the banks as well as the Iron Ore majors.
Expect a tentative start today and confidence to build as the day wears on…but things are starting to slow down now for Xmas…
Idea of the Day
Yesterday an old friend of mine MOC got slammed hard..I was amazed that they held up when all around was falling around their ears…I met with management last week and are very happy with this one…these guys are having the best time ever…banks actually want their business and their new financial planning business is starting to gain traction as well…their loan book guarantees them an annuity style business and they are massively exposure to the booming housing market and mortgage growth…at one stage yesterday they hit 266 down from 292/5…this one is a buy for growth yield and exposure to housing..anything close to 270 it’s a screamer!!
Things to make me go mmmm!
Managed to snaffle two tickets to see the Stones at Hanging Rock..so excited…so excited!!!
Tomorrow we meet the Volckers as the US votes on new rules banning prop trading for the house..heres a snippet of the new rules…
Volcker Rule Will Bar Compensation Arrangements That Reward Proprietary Trading, Rule Text Says
Rule Will Exempt Foreign Sovereign Debt From Proprietary Trading Ban, According To Rule Text Reviewed By Wall Street Journal
Would imagine that the Holden pullout is close…the US Government has even sold down all its GM shares … U.S. SOLD ALL REMAINING SHARES OF GENERAL MOTORS RECOUPING $39 BLN OF ORIGINAL GM INVESTMENT…it has lost nearly $11bn on the transaction…
This chart shows that companies have been cutting jobs for the benefit of shareholders in Russell 2000 stocks …50% off from pre GFC levels..
Riots have broken out in Singapore…the opposition in Thailand has brought on an election…Ukraine is looking dodgy…civil unrest is rising …..but apparently Greece is returning to growth next year…a Herculean task…and just as fanciful!!!And in the UK “King”Carney has announced that he does not want the property market to advance at “warp speed”..just like the good old days!! King Canute maybe?
The fear index or the VIX in the US has had a great run before being battered yesterday at the close… The gauge of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index options prices known as the VIX surged 23 percent in the eight sessions to close at 15.08 on Dec. 5 before falling 8.6 percent to 13.79 the next day…..good economic data helping the VIX fall to complacent levels again…
I was asked on Sky Biz on Friday what I thought the Government should do about QAN…I thought the best they could do was revoke Alan Joyces residency!This guy has done for QAN what Sol did for TLS…hopefully the next man to fill his shoes will save the company and turn it around…if you have a high cost base cos you care about safety etc then you need to compete on something else other than price…der!!!You don’t see Rolex compete with Timex do you…think Joyce must have missed that particular part of his inevitable MBA..
Brambles’: demerged document-storage division Recall will make its debut on the Australian Securities Exchange today after the Federal Court approved the spin-off of the $1 billion-plus company.
Ingogo: private equity funds have poured $3.4 million into ingogo, which offers a mobile-phone taxi-booking app, valuing the two-year-old Australian start-up at $25 million as it prepares to list on the ASX next year. The Sydney-based company, a competitor to the Cabcharge network, allows consumers to call taxis using an app and pay for the ride.
Domestic data today includes Home Loans, Investment lending, Owner Occupied loan values, and NAB Business conditions and Confidence
Looking forward to hearing from mega perma bull Charlie Aitken on his excuse why he was wrong on QBE…
WPL has just come out with an investor update…suspect that this will be disappointing..they always are!!!
The only way to pull off a Sunday afternoon ‘quick bout of love making’ with their 8-year old son in the apartment was to send him out on the balcony with a Mars Bar and tell him to report on all the Street activities.
He began his commentary as his parents put their plan into operation:
‘There’s a car being towed from the parking lot,’ he shouted.
‘An ambulance just drove by!’
‘Looks like the Anderson ‘s have company,’ he called out.
‘Matt’s riding a new bike!’
‘Looks like the Sanders are moving!’
‘Jason is on his skate board!
After a few moments he announced, ‘The Coopers are having a bonk!!’
Startled, his mum and dad shot up in bed!
Dad cautiously called out,
‘How do you know that?’
‘Jimmy Cooper is standing on his balcony with a Mars Bar’!!!
Have a great Tuesday
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