Morning all,

Disappointing day yesterday after comments from a Fed chief in Sydney on the need to taper sooner rather than later…all this softening up for the inevitable…still it is still a question of when..Jobs numbers out of US on Friday will be a big factor..does Ben want to start before he goes? That is the question…Anyway our market reversed all thrusters yesterday after the good results and special div from WBC…these banks have had an extraordinary run as the world and his wife have piled in. The Housing market is going great guns so no risk there and unemployment is still very much under control…and all this in a rebounding economy that is doing ok despite the mining tax (non-existent) and the Carbon Tax.So as soon as Tony Abbott comes out of hiding maybe we will see some action from our glorious new leader…he was in more places than Eddie McGuire when in opposition but now he has become the invisible man..must be out training for a bike ride or something!

So expect a quiet day today with a positive tone..it’s cup day people get out there and bet! It is your national duty!

melbourne_cup_03

RBA will keep rates on hold and comment that there are signs that low interest rates are turning the economy around..of course it was never that bad really ..it was just the constant diet of negative Politicians bagging each other and the economy so they could get into power that just sapped everyone’s morale…now they are not on the TV night after night after night ,it is easy to get a little more optimistic…in fact not sure anyone has missed them..maybe we shouldn’t have them..everything seems to run itself these days..at least while the benign multinationals and the banks are in charge!

Dropping below 5400 yesterday was a little worrying but volume was pretty low so todays bounce back up will set up a platform for the Xmas assault..5600 is very doable…especially if we see some upwards movement on the Iron Ore price in the next few weeks..the bears say that November and December last year were the worse for Iron but with a Chinese pow wow on the horizon that may change this year! And the analysts will be eating humble pie for Thanksgiving and Xmas.

Idea of the Day

I know you all want a tip for the winner…I am going to back Sea Moon…just like the name..I know nothing about racing..bit more about the market but some days I wonder!!As must you !

Looking for a bank that will do well in a rising equity market and improving world economy..look no further than MQG…making all the right moves and getting into the mortgage market will help domestic too…they are pretty geared to recovery and have done the hard yards in cost cutting..tough times make companies focussed! Focus is good..cost focus is really good and these guys are smart and do really well in improving marlets..Highly geared and worth buying…we have target of $55 on these babies and can’t argue with that.But think we may see higher than that in the months to come.

Also was buying some BDR for clients yesterday at 86…these are cheap here..quality gold stock with very low cost base and expanding production and resource..if you have to buy a gold stock this could  be the one!

Things to make me go mmmm!

Looks like the Chinese are getting bullish on Iron Ore in the run up to the Plenum next week. The most-traded May iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 950 yuan ($155) per tonne on Monday, up 8 yuan per tonne from last Friday’s close.

DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION AVG. CLOSES AT ALL-TIME HIGH

Twitter is being priced at well above the target price around 23-26 bucks..tech boom 2.0 is alive and well..well not for Blackberry which was squashed last night as the takeover fell through the CEO fell on his iPhone and the shares plummeted 16%!This one will soon be consigned to the world of myspace.Still the CEO walked away with $16m in severance pay..not bad for a crap job..and in only a year..David Gyngell looks underpaid on this metric.

These are the twitter headlines: remind anyone of Faceplant?

  • *TWITTER SEES IPO PRICE $23-$25, HAD SEEN $17-$20
  • *TWITTER IPO SAID TO BE OVERSUBSCRIBED SEVERAL TIMES AT $25/SHR
  • *TWITTER SAID LIKELY TO PRICE IPO ABOVE INCREASED OFFERING RANGE
  • *TWITTER RATED NEW BUY AT TOPEKA CAPITAL, PT $54

And still in the US the Fed’s Bullard said that “bubbles were blindingly obvious!” At the time or in hindsight?

HSBC saw profit surge 30% in the three months to the end of September, boosted by a strong performance in the UK and Hong Kong.Reported pre-tax profit was $4.5bn (£2.8bn), compared with $3.4bn for the same period a year ago, the bank said.

Coca-Cola Amatil’s profit downgrade sparked a sell-off of its shares yesterday, with the company saying its earnings could be 7 per cent lower for the 2013 calendar year compared with a previous forecast of 4 per cent. The fall bucked the trend of some peers in the retail sector yesterday, such as David Jones and Myer, after Australian retail spending rose a larger-than-expected 0.8 per cent in September

Boom time for Hardly Normal.. Soaring house prices and a recovery in home building activity have helped Harvey Norman deliver its third consecutive quarter of sales growth in Australia, with sales for the three months ending September 30 rising 1.2 per cent.

Gotta love the Swiss..anywhere there is a quid.. A major Swiss gold refiner is being investigated on suspicion of money laundering linked to the processing of gold allegedly looted from DR Congo.Swiss federal prosecutors confirmed criminal proceedings against Argor-Heraeus SA, over claims it knew gold it handled in 2004 .

And the Japanese have developed a computer that wins at Rock Paper Scissors every time..doesn’t seem fair to have someone beat you all the time..must be what the Australian cricket team feels like these days!

And finally…… The Dreaded Phone Call from the boss.

My boss phoned me today.  He said,  “Is everything OK at the office?”

I said, “It’s all under control.  It’s been a very busy day.  I haven’t stopped to take a break all day.”

“Can you do me a favour?” he asked.

I said “Of course,

What is it?”

“Pick up the pace a little.  I’m in the group behind you.”

Have a great Melbourne Cup day..stay lucky..stay safe and back the winner!

 Clarence

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Any financial product advice contained in this email is general financial product advice only and does not take into account any one person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, before acting on any financial product advice in this email, you should consider, with or without the assistance of an independent adviser, the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Get a Global take on things at www.ntmarkets.com

Get a Global take on things at http://www.ntmarkets.com

 

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