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Morning all,

US at all-time highs, more money being sucked into the market by mutual funds as the FOMO (Fear of missing out) rages. Better than expected jobs numbers..seems we get a jobs number every week.

Oil up ,Gold up, Iron Ore still going up…guess where the money is going to go today…yeah that’s right BHP! Yesterday we had the banks doing ok and BHP drifting around and today we will see some strength in some resource stocks.. Another go at 5000 in store and this time we will go straight through it…if the US keeping on going,the UK keeps on going and Japan keeps on going our market is going to become a coiled spring waiting for the election to release the power…seen it before in previous election campaigns…the momentum builds and builds but it becomes trapped like a volcano about to erupt and then the slightest crack and off we go..I suspect that may be the case here.Trouble is that at the moment the magma is building up beneath the surface and needs that crack..earnings season approaching and the election keeping the lid on for the time being but once it cracks..whoosssshhhhh! Krackatoa!

So another day of low volumes as Instos finish their end of year stuff, school holidays draw to a close and we wait for the companies to report here in August…but with most of the confessions out of the way and free money forever what could cause an upset…Zombieland..nah..no one is going to rock the boat before German elections..China…could do but they will just adjust the numbers ..Japan..election Sunday but Abe will win more power and the grand strategy will continue…so apart from local political fatigue and the endless negative talk from the opposition it looks like we have some plain sailing for a while even if it is reluctantly.

Idea of the Day

Couple of days ago I talked about GEM..one we like..one I like…who doesn’t need childcare these days…and now Citi has upgraded them..now I reckon they are more influential than I am so they will get more reaction than me..sad I know but true…not too late to buy though!

Still like BHP..for all the right reasons..still like NCM..for all the wrong reasons!!

So what about a new idea I hear you say…indeed…wanna bet (sorry invest) in the US market and benefit from the Aussie Dollar falling at the same time..maybe you should look at the ETF IVV…it replicates the S&P 500…trades just like a share on the ASX…code is IVV…can send more details if you are interested…

Things to make me go Ring a ding…saved by the Bell!

1.The Ashes remains fascinating after a dreadful start by England ,Ian Bell came to their resucue..no one could ever say Test Cricket is boring…at least it doesn’t need streakers to make it interesting!

2.When did the Car Leasing business become an industry. Amazing that this is called an industry. Heard on the radio this morning the boss of the packaging firm that has cut his workforce in half in the last three days..sacked 73 people..he had a salary bill of $50,000 a day!!He has obviously decided that the Coailition are not going to win! Bit sad too when you hear Kev13 saying that he will support the car industry with help if there are any unintended consequences out of his policy on the run!

3.Billagone has a new man and a new strategy..they are going to focus on value rather than price..sure he knows what he is doing ..but I keep seeing buses with the surfstitch web site on the side…it advertises 400+ Brands and 400,000 items…you know what I reckon I would start there..400 brands…enough to confuse anyone!!!

4.And 9 months after Obama said he had succeeded in not letting Detroit go bankrupt, well it has…in the latest and biggest US City bankruptcy, Detroit is toast. Looks like his bet on the ingenuity of American Workers three years ago didn’t pay off!

These words from the State Governor…

“The City’s unemployment rate has nearly tripled since 2000 and is more than double the national average. Detroit’s homicide rate is at the highest level in nearly 40 years, and it has been named as one of the most dangerous cities in America for more than 20 years. Its citizens wait an average of 58 minutes for the police to respond to their calls, compared to a national average of 11 minutes. Only 8.7% of cases are solved, compared to a statewide average of 30.5%. The City’s police cars, fire trucks, and ambulances are so old that breakdowns make it impossible to keep up the fleet or properly carry out their roles. For instance, only a third of the City’s ambulances were in service in the first quarter of 2013. Similarly, approximately 40% of the City’s street lights were not functioning in that quarter.”

5.Why is it the  blindingly obvious always comes as a surprise to analysts…Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) took an unexpected writedown of $900 million on its inventory of unsold Surface tablets, further reducing earnings already hurt by shrinking demand for personal computers running Windows. Fourth-quarter profit was 66 cents a share, excluding a 7-cent charge related to the inventory adjustment, Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft said in a statement today. Sales rose 10 percent to $19.9 billion. Analysts had predicted profit of 75 cents a share on $20.7 billion in revenue…I mean have you ever seen anyone with one of these things..except in the ads..and you know they aren’t selling when we get so many Surface ads!

6.And Google adds to the IT woes with their numbers which disappointed…… Google Inc. (GOOG), owner of the world’s most popular Internet search engine, reported second-quarter sales and profit that fell short of analysts’ estimates as advertising tied to mobile devices crimped average prices. Google’s average cost per click, a measure of advertising rates, fell 6 percent as more marketers aimed to reach consumers through smartphones and tablets instead of desktop personal computers.And we know that the sale of PC is at a low just ask Dell!

7.And some notable quotes from Ben..

2007 – “The subprime mess is grave but largely contained”

2013 – “The amount of US Student Debt is large, but not particularly likely to cause macro-economic instability.”

Guess he doesn’t really have any more clue about the future than the rest of us…..

8.Woodside Petroleum has advised its first-half profit will be cut by as much as $140 million because of write-downs mostly on abandoned projects, although the impact will be softened by an expected tax benefit. News of the impairments came as Woodside reported a 6 per cent slide in June quarter revenues because of a drop in oil production, which more than wiped out higher LNG revenues from the $15 billion Pluto plant in Karratha.

9.And as the case for UK shale gets interesting.. One of Australia’s richest businessmen, Paul Fudge, has snared a 10 per cent stake in AJ Lucas.Earlier this week, a Fudge-controlled entity, Belbay Investments, disclosed a 9.9 per cent stake in AJ Lucas, the troubled driller and contractor, which has its foot on potentially valuable coal gas and shale assets in Europe….things getting interesting in this pace…US gas prices up 5% last night too…did I mention BRU? No ..must have done!

10.Big thank you to Sky Biz last night for a special night at the final rehearsal of the Australian Chamber Orchestra and the Barefoot Fiddler…in awe as usual..go see the show!!

And finally…..

Just had my water bill of $175 drop on my mat.  That’s a lot.  Oxfam can supply a whole African village for just $2 a month: time to change supplier I think.

Looking forward to seeing Man United tomorrow night!!!

Have a great weekend

Clarence

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Get a Global take on things at http://www.ntmarkets.com

Any financial product advice contained in this email is general financial product advice only and does not take into account any one person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, before acting on any financial product advice in this email, you should consider, with or without the assistance of an independent adviser, the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.

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