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Today expect a modest fall with some window dressing for end of quarter. +/- 10 points, I suspect. Resources perhaps still drawing a few supporters.Iron Ore better.Gold Better.
Once again we saw the US market rally off its low on tiny volume. Anyone would think there is a conspiracy to hold it up. Never?Right?Lowest volume all year from the Dow.Once again events in Zombieland are scaring the punters away. News that Panicos, the chief banker in Cyprus, is going to open the banks on Thursday for 6 hours was greeted with a mass epidemic from tellers who had phoned in to say they had really sore throats! It has got so bad there that the same mob that looked after security in the London Olympics G4S have been hired to protect the banks. Let’s hope they do a better job of it than they did last time. News also that the Central Bank could not impose capital flight shutdown on overseas branches will only go to show that when they go to the cupboard it will probably be bare. The Russian have long gone. Apparently they could use a special dispensation or humanitarian reasons to transfer money out of the London Branch of the Bank of Cyprus..Its so sad, it is almost funny.
Anyway back to our market and yesterday’s short rally was fuelled by some Iron Ore bears buying back in and window dressing for the end of the quarter. Low volume and there is an increasing tap on the shoulder of investors for capital. Witness LNC and BDR raising a bit and most juniors are doing the rounds asking for more..More Oliver?
So where to …well I still think we have a little more downside to come..this quarter is always a little soft and last years call to “Sell in May and go away” was a stunning winner as the market just capitulated. Now I do not think we will see anything like that this year but there are a number of factors that are going to keep folk on the sidelines. Not least of which for us is the looming Election in September. Now I know Tony is a shoe in, but really does anyone really want him as our next PM..where is Malcolm when you need him.I listened to Scott Morrison ,the opposition Immigration Minister on the radio this morning…no wonder nobody trusts pollies anymore..a straight answer would have been nice Scott. Operational matters my bottom!!
So there is my view 4850 -5150 is the range…Cyprus will be a disaster….will have to leave Euro…US telling everyone how dumb the Zombies are ,to have rung up this much debt and live beyond their means…already starting to talk about Luxembourg, Malta and Slovenia…..next bailout…Election to unnerve people but like the vote in September what is the choice, Dumb or Dumber, deposits or equities…at least with equities it takes a crash to wipe you out and there is always a comeback somewhere but with deposits it just takes an act of Government. Obviously it won’t happen here, but International investors will be pretty worried and may use equities as the bolthole. Hence the limited downside.And of course the yield.
Idea of the Day
Patience Grasshopper..signs of life in the Gold Price are welcome and the bombed out Gold sector and other resource stocks may be able to gather enough friends for a rally. The first thing will be a takeovers and mergers as the industry rationalises, as the weak seek the strong and the money runs out like water out of a bath and the lifestyle directors struggle to keep their gravy train in motion. More “Really exciting projects’ …”World Class assets” if you only give us another $5m to drill some more holes in the ground. And they get paid $350,000 a year for someone else to drill the holes and a consultant Geo to tell them where!!Of course they do have to raise the money ..That’s their job.
What is the difference between a crazy bunny and a counterfeit banknote? One is bad money and the other is a mad bunny!
Or slightly less appropriate…as Jesus said to his disciples, ”Don’t eat all my Easter Eggs, I will come back for them on Sunday!”
Have a great Easter…
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