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Morning all,

They say there are two certainties in life, Death and Taxes (there was a third too but not sure about Nurses anymore!)…well, you can add another one to that list now..the Dow will go to an all time high very soon.Last nights move to push out the credit limit on their Visa card was yet another positive in the big jigsaw…we now have the record in sight. It’s a bit like Mountaineering and scaling Himalayan peaks, you have to establish the base camp and move higher up the mountain until the summit is in sight and then just go for it…of course once you are there it’s time to look around take some pictures and get back down…probably gonna be similar with the market.

Our market is knocking on the door of 4800 and is looking positive too…one of the gun commentators Alan Kohler was massively bearish back in 2012 and has now changed his mind completely citing a number of factors to be happy about..all of which I have been banging on about for months ..so maybe he reads my blog..who knows but nice to see him finally get bullish..of course he hasn’t admitted that he got it so wrong but then they(we) never do!

Idea of the Day NCM BUY

The company has not disappointed..amazing really..this from the Herald…

Miner Newcrest has maintained its full-year production forecasts after December quarter gold and copper production rose from the preceding three months.

Newcrest produced 492,906 ounces of gold in the three months to December 31, up from 460,425 ounces in the three months to September 30.

The company produced 19,926 tonnes of copper in the December quarter, up from 18,598 tonnes in the September quarter.

“The company’s gold and copper production is expected to progressively increase over the remainder of the financial year,” Newcrest said in a statement on Thursday.

It is fair to say it has been a dog with fleas but maybe they have turned the corner ..maybe just maybe there is scope for a rally..I think so anyway…there may be life in this one yet..

I will let you peruse the chart in case you were in any doubt about its canine nature! Target $26.00 as rally to continue.

And after the huge rally in LNC on its Shale gas acreage in SA ..BRU still one of my favourites especially around 2.20 to 2.30.

Things to make me go all….Apple!


1.Looks like the UK is going to have a referendum on whether to stay in Europe or not..seems maybe it won’t be Greece or Spain that is the first to leave but the UK…talking of Spain the economy there is slipping even further into the Paella…a soggy one at that as austerity makes matters worse..no hope for them I am afraid..but out of the headlines for now.


2.Apple loses its way as earnings disappoint and shares fall back to Earth…been saying it for a while too ..this one is now just like all the others ..everyone ctaches up eventually and Samsung and others are kicking its toosh!Still they have got  $137bn in cash so not all bad…might need to buy something or pay a dividend and become a utility stock not growth!


3.Chelsea go down to Swansea in the League Cup as a Goalless draw seals their fate!!Say it ain’t so!Swansea are in their first major English Cup in 100 years!!They may need a GPS to find Wembley!


4.And in other sports news Stephanie Rice has quit swimming to take a job with Channel Nine on the Today program…


5.News yesterday from Linc Energy on their South Australian Shale assets was very positive…SA Government now crowing that something good does come out of barrels in that state!


6. The global economy will grow slightly less in 2013 than was expected, held back by a weak Zombieland that will stay mired in recession a second straight year, the IMF predicted Wednesday.

“Downside risks remain significant, including prolonged stagnation in the euro area and excessive short-term fiscal tightening in the United States,” the International Monetary Fund said, in an economic outlook update.


7.Subdued inflation numbers yesterday and word from Heather Ridout that the economy needs a crutch to support it now the mining boom has ended..has it really or are the companies just getting better at costs and staffing levels..Iron ore is still pretty good despite the doom and gloom merchants…the big question is ..rate cut or no rate cut in February..I am going for no rate cut as the World passes crisis point and the RBA waits to see how its previous ones have helped confidence…


8. BHP Billiton: may see earnings upgrades by analysts post yesterday’s quarterly production report, which saw the heavyweight reiterate guidance across its three key divisions, iron ore, copper and petroleum, according to a German investment bank, Bloomberg News reports.

It is also tipped to slash Australian operations in 2013 despite new statistics showing solid performance across its most important product groups. Production guidance for key commodities such as iron ore and petroleum remains intact at the halfway mark of the 2013 financial year, but the resources giant has confirmed there is no relief in sight for laggards like nickel and aluminium, the Sydney Morning Herald reports.


9.Ten Network: has reported the completion of its retail entitlement offer, with eligible shareholders subscribing for approximately 194 million shares or about A$39 million. The balance of about 80 million shares will be issued to underwriters and sub-underwriters.


10. Exports from the U.S. are set to pick up in 2013 after slumping last quarter as global growth strengthens from Asia to Latin America, giving American manufacturers a boost.

Industries in which U.S. companies have a competitive advantage, including agriculture, medical supplies and aviation, will probably benefit the most from improving global demand, said Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.


And finally……………….


Go Andy Murray and in the spirit of the Open..


“The depressing thing about tennis is that no matter how much I play, I’ll never be as good as a wall. I played a wall once. They’re relentless.”


And just because its good…“My father always used to say, ‘What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger.’ Until the accident.”


Have a great day




Options Expiry day!

Any financial product advice contained in this email is general financial product advice only and does not take into account any one person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, before acting on any financial product advice in this email, you should consider, with or without the assistance of an independent adviser, the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.