A relatively quiet night last night..Uncle Ben celebrated his birthday last night with a damp towel thrown firmly over the QE3 wishers..he said the economy was ok and growing but had significant risks from Europe..genius stuff…but surprisingly the US numbers have been significantly better in recent months and the mood seems to be changing…shame the same cannot be said for Europe…occasionally I tune in to the European parliament in Strassburg when I can’t sleep but one lively sight is always MEP Nigel Farange (UK Independence Party) speaking to the other European Members of Parliament. If you want to see what is wrong with the Euro Zone look no further than watching his speeches to his fellow members. This guy is good, very entertaining and has some pretty good points..He is leading the charge for the UK to get out of the EU…. Nigel Farange Speech on the EU Titanic!<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOgtEBhV4DE&feature=youtu.be> The move for the UK to leave Europe will increase! Never that happy to be in it in the first place..
Anyway yesterday’s falls made up for Monday gains as the Market struggles to find direction..again low volume and computers running the show..Gold seems to be the biggest casualty at the moment..when the price is strong Gold shares go nowhere ,when its weak they get smacked…the smacking is linked to growth and demand slowing in India coupled with the rise of the USD plus some technical selling..all up it’s been a good year for the physical and as we get towards 2012 there are a few guys cashing in their chips and walking from the casino.
Last night Euro Bond auctions went off quite well, the VIX (or fear index has been slipping and is now down to 25) this is usually a signal that the World is getting complacent about risk again. Not sure I would be that complacent but there you go! The mess of MF Global is now sucking JP Morgan into its path and everyone wants to know where all the money went..puff..up in smoke..this story will build in 2012.
Oil had a good run last night with increasing tensions around Iran and Military exercises, President Obama wants his drone back (not sure Hilary likes being called that) and Oil jumped back over $100 last night..I believe that Oil will be a big winner in 2012 on increasing civil unrest and most problems with Iran and now Russia too…Gas also looks interesting with the Chinese focussing more and more on supplies of cleaner gas and less dirty coal..ORG deal is just the start..more to come!
Our market is set to come under a little pressure and the SPI was down 22 points so again no reason to rush in..I remain a fan of TLS as everyone knows… new CFO appointed today and last impediment to Telstra’s $11bn deal with the Government almost certain to be resolved in February, later than the previous Dec 20 deadline. Next major issue for Telstra is the renewal of its 3G and 4G spectrum licences with an announcement from the Department of Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy potentially before the Xmas break….l also think that the banks should be on your watch list for picking up..WBC AGM today so expect some commentary about funding costs etc..
Tomorrow is the SPI expiry and after that it will go even quieter if that is possible but suspect next week will be very sparse..4150 must hold or 4000 is the next stop..range bound 4000 to 4400..remember buy when it looks its darkest before that dawn..of course Mao said that it is always darkest before it goes completely black!!Cheery bloke Mao!