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ASX 200 finishes up 27 points to 7754 (+0.4%), basking in a warm post-budget glow. The main driver of the advance was retail stocks and BHP, which was buoyed by talk it may just walk from Anglo discussions. Up 2.2%. Some budget winners in focus today, with some of the critical metal stocks finding some friends, although gains were muted in the end. Gold miners slightly better, with NST up 0.4% and PRU up 2.2%. Lithium stocks took the cue from better prices overseas, PLS up 0.3% and LTR rising 1.5%. Oil and gas stocks eased as oil prices fell. Banks were slightly easier, with the Big Bank Basket down to $207.72 (-0.1%). ANZ the big faller down 1.2%. MQG also in trouble off 1.0%, with ASX off 1.4% on a broker downgrade. REITs better across the spectrum, SCG up 1.6% and SGP up 2.4%. Industrials firmed, TLS having a good day up 0.6%, and informed me I had won a new phone. TCL slipped 1.8%, with healthcare mixed on budget news, RHC down 1.0%. Tech flat, retail better, PMV up 2.4% and JBH up 0.4%. In corporate news, STO announced 2000 job cuts, SXL rejected the ARN deal, and IRE sank 1.8% on data leak news. AAC dropped 1.4% after a challenging year, and CSR’s aluminium operations sharply fell to an annual loss of $29m. In economic news, wage growth slowed to 0.8%. Asian markets mixed again, with Japan unchanged, HK closed and China off 0.5%. 10Y yields steady at 4.324%. Dow Futures up 14 points. NASDAQ Futures down 8 points. 

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Winners:  CHN, VUL, IEL, RPL, WA1, MAC, NEU
  • Losers: MYX, HLS, RDX, PMT, OBM, FBU
  • Positive sectors: REITs. Iron ore. Tech. Retail. Critical metals.
  • Negative sectors: Banks. Oil and gas.
  • ASX 200 Hi 7785 Lo 7747
  • Big Bank Basket: Unchanged at $207.72
  • All-Tech Index:  Up 0.6%
  • Gold: Steady at $3551
  • Bitcoin: Falls to US$61939
  • 10-year yields steady at 4.31%.
  • AUD: Steady at 66.42 c.
  • Asian markets benign, with Japan unchanged, HK closed and China off 0.5%
  • Dow futures up 3 NASDAQ Futures down 15. CPI tonight.
  • European markets opening higher ahead of US CPI.

MAJOR MOVERS

  • CHN +8.9% the brew that is true. Platinum rally. Just keeps going.
  • VUL +8.3% buying continues.
  • IEL +7.1% UK inquiry recommends no change to Uni system.
  • NEU +5.6% Investor presentation.
  • LTM +2.8% lithium stocks better.
  • RNU +30.0% Budget moves.
  • DSE +7.7% change in substantial holding.
  • MYX -8.4% downgrades following update.
  • HLS -6.0% profit taking.
  • IRE -1.8% hacked.
  • CSR – unchanged- aluminium losses hurt but Saint Gobain waiting for vote.
  • SXL -unchanged – rejects ARM overtures.
  • CHL -24.7% trading update. Not good.
  • Speculative Stock of the Day: Two today. It never rains, but it pours. SS1 +112.5% on debut. Silver play in US. AGC +104.7% good drilling results from Achilles.

COMPANIES

ECONOMIC AND OTHER HEADLINES

  • In Q1, Australian wage growth slowed to 0.8%, missing expectations of 0.9%. Annually, wages rose by 4.1%, down from the previous quarter’s 4.2%. This trend is crucial for the RBA and the wider economy. Wages play a pivotal role in shaping inflation, which has consistently exceeded the RBA’s target range of 2 to 3%. The RBA projects a further moderation in wage growth, aiming for a 4.2% annual rate by June. The forthcoming April Labour Force report will offer additional insights, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.
  • China’s central bank left a key policy rate unchanged when rolling over maturing medium-term loans on Wednesday, in line with market expectations.
  • China is considering a proposal to have local governments across the country buy millions of unsold homes. Local state-owned enterprises would be asked to help purchase unsold homes from distressed developers at steep discounts using loans provided by state banks.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin is heading to China for the first foreign visit of his new term. Driven by Russian oil and gas sales and purchases of electronics, industrial equipment and cars, Moscow’s trade with China hit a record $240bn in 2023, more than double the $108bn reached in 2020.
  • The US Casino is open for business as Meme stocks go nuts. Volume in S&P 500 is 20% below normal while GameStop, AMC surge. Easy targets for Robo Traders and quants. GameStop is up 171% in two days. AMC is up 135%. Gotta love algo trading momentum bots.
  • Investors have boosted bets for an interest-rate hike by the Bank of Japan by July. Overnight indexed swaps suggest about a 70% likelihood that the central bank will raise its benchmark rate by then.
  • OpenAI co-founder and chief scientist Ilya Sutskever departs.
  • Vanguard chooses former BlackRock executive Salim Ramji as CEO.
  • Brazil’s Lula government ousts Petrobras chief after dispute over dividends.
  • US CPI tonight. ‘Experts’ expect the consumer price index to show a 0.4% monthly gain, or a 0.3% increase excluding food and energy and expecting a 3.4% year-over-year gain for headline CPI, following a 3.5% rise in March.

And finally….

Clarence

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