Morning all,

Firstly congratulations to Ashton Agar what a performance. On Cricket’s biggest stage, this 19 year old has made life very interesting. Now I am a Englishmen but this was still bloody fantastic and what a way to start your career. Sure makes it interesting!!

So to the markets, well it’s on again. Since Kev13 has been made our glorious leader ,we have rallied 8%..coincidence I think not. Sure we have had some help from Uncle Ben but Kev should take full credit for this rally. Well I am sure he will…so what’s changed to cause this huge run…few things really, shorts are being squeezed, end of tax loss selling ,commodity rises, Oil rises but the MOST important factor has been the US Fed and its views on the tapering. The targets it has for rug pulling are inflation and unemployment and both seem a long way off from where they want them to be…so despite Zombie woes and China slowdown and the IMF downgrades to the Globe we are looking pretty good. We have also got through confession season and after so many downgrades the decks are cleared…there is only blue sky for a while..I had 4950 as my target and then a pause…well maybe not much of a pause..I get the feeling that the baton has been passed to the resource stocks and they are going to charge for a while..BHP sticks out like the proverbial as a winner. Iron Ore has failed to follow the bears script and has even rallied so what with Oil and the Aussie Dollar this one could run for a bit longer!

Reckon we may even have a go at the high in the next few weeks..yup have taken the blue bullish pill today!!

 

Idea of the Day

Hope some of you got some NCM as I suggested under 10 bucks as you may not see that for a while.

So to other potential winners…talked about BHP above…but maybe the slowdown in the mining sector will be a good thing..talked on TV this morning about how mining companies around the World got fat, lazy and complacent about costs when commodity prices were so high…smug I reckon…easy to make money…now things have changed and there is nothing like a shot of reality to bring their hubris crashing back to earth..the good ones like BHP will do well as they slash costs and change their plans…the focus on costs is a good thing…. Profligate spending was rife…so maybe the new lean mean fighting machines will be better placed to survive and thrive in this brave new world..I suspect so..shame about the ones that cannot adjust..they will struggle…I would also put WPL into this equation in the potential winners..$40 anyone???

Thoughts to make you go all Agar!

 

1.Bloody brilliant cricket last night…Ashton we salute you! And I am English!

2.As we ponder the future of Uncle Ben ,a Fed Chief resigned last night. Elizabeth Duke from Duke and Duke Commodity brokers, handed in her resignation effective August..and with Ben gone in January perhaps then Obama has a chance to really leave his mark on the Fed! *She wasn’t really from Duke and Duke that was Trading Places with Eddie Murphy!!

3.Good to see the CSR chief come out and talk about the “Good the Bad and the Ugly”..good was the low Aussie dollar,the bad was the glass business and the Ugly..not sure but seems he is getting more confident about the benfirts of a lower dollar..he will not be the only one come earnings reports.

4.Yesterday’s unemployment numbers will be another piece of the RBA jigsaw puzzle and suggest that they will cut rates again in August..now you know I am no economist so don’t really know whether they will or not, but the problem they have is the banks may not pass it on..the other issue is the benefits to mortgage holders do tend to be negated a little by the low dollar and the high oil price making that daily commute down the M2 just that little bit more expensive. Swings and roundabouts..I am erring on the side of no change in August though for the record…

5.Arrium CEO Andrew Roberts said the fall in local currency will boost earnings from this quarter and help its steel business compete against imports.

6.Good to finally hear from Billagone on some good news or at least some better news.. chief Launa Inman says the Americas, the company’s biggest sales generator and most important market, “has turned a corner” while Australia and Europe remain problematic. “Europe is the issue, and Australia has had their issues as well,” Ms Inman told media in the US where she is launching the new Billabong women’s range.

7.Outtahole…..Inabox will list on the ASX today after being forced to delay its sharemarket debut last month because of ongoing volatility as it battled to raise $3.5 million. Inabox initially was due to list on June 26 but had to delay its listing while it sought enough investors from which to raise funds. It was not until fast-growing telco M2 Telecommunications invested $2m that Inabox was able to attract new investors and close out its IPO.

8.Rio Tinto appears increasingly likely to delay a $5.4 billion iron ore mine expansion in WA, possibly leaving global iron ore markets under-supplied and backing up claims by new Arrium chief Andrew Roberts that pundits predicting price slumps are factoring in too much new supply.

9.Greece takes to the streets again in a four day strike over unemployment…this will only ensure that we get more Greek unemployment and the country falls further into the abyss! Truly frightening statistics… There are roughly 11 million people in Greece. 3.4 million of them are employed, of which roughly one third work for the government. 1.34 million people are ‘officially’ unemployed. To put this in context, it would be as if there were 36 million officially unemployed in the US.

More startling, if you add the number of ‘inactive’ workers (i.e. those who gave up looking), the total number of unemployed is roughly 57% of the entire Greek work force. And as you probably know, the situation for young people is even worse. Only 1 in 3 people aged 25 and under has a job.

10.The U.S. met 89% of its own energy needs in March, the highest monthly rate since April 1986, EIA data show. Net imports of crude oil and petroleum products will fall to 5.7 million barrels a day by 2014, down from 12.5 million in 2005, the EIA said yesterday in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.This new energy paradigm has been a game changer..that and the low US dollar!

11.The US government reported a budget surplus of $116.5bn (£77.02bn) in June, the most in five years. The improving US economy meant that tax receipts were higher than expected.

Also, government spending plunged by 47% due to package of spending cuts and tax increases passed in January, known as the sequester. Government owned mortgage firms, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, added $66.3bn (£43.8bn) in payments. They have been in public ownership since 2008.

And finally…..this is my 500^th post on my blog..beeksdownunder….momentous indeed…I also write an afternoon report that you can access by following my blog…

Your English lesson for the day…….. Enjoy!!

Complete vs. Finished

No dictionary has been able to adequately explain the difference between COMPLETE and FINISHED

However, in a recent linguistic conference held in London, andattended by some of the best linguists in the world, Samsundar Balgobin, a Guyanese, was the clear winner.

His final challenge was this:  Some say there is no difference between COMPLETE and FINISHED. Please explain the difference between COMPLETE and FINISHED in a way that is easy to understand.

Here is his astute answer:

“When you marry the right woman, you are COMPLETE. But, when you marry the wrong woman, you are FINISHED.

And when the right one catches you with the wrong one, you are COMPLETELY FINISHED!”

His answer was received with a standing ovation lasting over 5 minutes.

Have a great weekend…did my first big road run last night for City to Surf..6.5ks in 49 minutes and up a scary hill too!!!Feeling it today!

 

Clarence

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