Morning all,

Three in a row for the Dow which celebrated the start of earnings season with an unseasonally positive result from Alcoa. Beat expectations…albeit low ones..seems they are selling so much more aluminum to US car manufacturers. Anyway the Dow is quietly pushing ever higher and Zombieland has joined the fun with the UK showing signs of growth. It seems that everything is being done in Europe not to upset the Moaning Mertle election win in September..they have even bailed out Greece again…it’s gonna keep happening as now the Troika is the lender of last resort ,it’s pretty hard and expensive to back out now…they can huff and puff as much as they like but Greece has got them by the short and curlies…Portugal is receeding from our memories and Kev is in da house..why are we so worried?

Yesterday in thin and anemic volume we were down 55 at one stage on nothing really..oh except that China continues to be an issue..Go west young man…let’s all look at the US! Forget China right? Well it’s pretty hard to given the reliance that we have on their economy but the biggest export Iron Ore is looking stubbornly firm in the last few weeks so why is our market so lackluster….it’s the politics! If we could only get this election out the way things would improve…trouble is the Labour party seems to be surging ahead after Kev’s win! Tony must be a little worried, he might actually have to come up with some policies! Good to watch Malcolm Turnbull, the inventor of the internet, on Q & A last night…why can’t we have him in charge..most intelligent and sensible politician around…anyway I digress….the market right?

Expect a good day today as we push up towards 4850…Gold stronger, Dollar stronger, commodities generally better. Not a profit warning in sight!

Usual suspects will perform…maybe better from resource stocks than financials. We will continue to bounce around on low volumes and volatility is here to stay for a while…remember it is your friend..it is opportunity to buy low, sell high!

Idea of the Day

Now in a few emails ago I spoke of NCM…its back under 10 bucks..suspect it will have a good day today from the opening so missed the bounce for now but I would suggest that any buying under 10 bucks will be rewarded…this has been a dog..management has been atrocious..everything that could go wrong has gone wrong but he Gold in the ground is still there and may look tasty for a big global miner…just saying that I would not be surprised to see some bigger corporate moves at this one…at the very least new management, new IR bloke and new focus! Not for the feint hearted but traders delight..buy under 10 sell over 11! As the Meerkat says..”simples!”

 

Things to make me go mmmm!!

1.Ashes start this week…more late nights after Wimbledon…

2.Tough times for referees in Brazil where one was beheaded after knifing a player in an argument..in the league I play in they just give red cards..hope this is not a new rule coming in..seems harsh.

3.CBA employees will push for bigger pay increases this  year as they stake their claim to a larger share of the bank’s record profits. Negotiations over the bank’s enterprise agreement with staff begin at CBA’s headquarters in Sydney on Tuesday and workers are set to ask for more after pay rises were limited to 3.5 per cent in 2012…good luck with that guys!

4.”Greece secured a 6.8 billion euro ($8.7 billion) lifeline from the euro zone on Monday, officials told Reuters, but was told it must keep its promises on cutting public sector jobs and other reforms in order to get all the cash.” Yeah course they will…

5.Consumer borrowing in the U.S. climbed in May by the most in a year as Americans put more purchases on their credit cards and took out more school and automobile loans. The $19.6 billion increase in credit followed a revised $10.9 billion gain the previous month that was less than initially reported, Federal Reserve figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a $12.5 billion advance.

6.The slow deterioration in market conditions which has been quietly weighing on Qantas’ share price in recent weeks is something else altogether. Qantas shares are down about 32 per cent since April due to the impact of a stronger US dollar on fuel prices and a weak revenue environment. Analysts tipping pre-tax profit growing from $100 million in the 2013 financial year to $360 million in 2014. While it has cut its earlier forecasts by 40 per cent, analysts still believe upside from the Emirates alliance and an end to the domestic turf war with Virgin.

7.As the war on drugs continues in the US interesting reading on the cost and effectiveness of wiretaps!!

Riverside County, California is the most spied-on county in the United States 3,395 wiretaps were ordered, averaging 29.03 days each The average cost of a wiretap order last year was $50,452The highest cost was $872,841 for a Federal wiretap in the Eastern district of Washington 87.39% of these wiretap orders were connected to drug-related charges.

Only 18.19% of these wiretaps actually led to a conviction.

So for every conviction they get from wiretapping, the US  government wastes $277,361.19 on other wiretaps that produce absolutely nothing (based on their own metrics for success).

8.German exports saw their sharpest fall since 2009 as demand in China eased off and eurozone exports fell by 9.6%.Germany exports around 40% of its goods to the 16 other countries that use the euro, many of which are in recession.Overall exports, according the Federal Statistics Office, were 2.4% lower in May, while imports rose by 1.7% as domestic demand remained steady. Exports to countries outside of Europe fell by 1.6%, with the slowdown in China affecting demand.

9.The actions taken by the People’s Bank of China during last month’s credit crunch signaled a move toward a more efficient and market-oriented financial system, a U.S. administration official said….This just ahead of a big pow wow between US and China on July 10-11^th.

10.Apparently after the NCM scandal ,the ASIC has decided to sit in to analysts briefings..good luck…they are going to need to recruit a fair few new people then..why not just make it a requirement that all analysts briefings should be recorded and filed for later use if there is a problem…we tape phones calls why not meetings…would certainly change the culture of selective briefings if this was adopted and pretty easy with digital technology now…would nt like the job though of listening to them…most send me to sleep when I am actually in the room!

And finally…..as it’s the Tour de France at the moment

I think it is just terrible and disgusting how everyone has treated Lance Armstrong, especially after what he’s achieved, winning 7 Tour de France races, whilst he was on drugs.

— When I was on drugs, I couldn’t even find my bloody bike.

Five weeks to go before the City to Surf!! Happy to accept more sponsorship money..would love to get to 1000 bucks for Starlight Foundation…they even sent me a hat and t-shirt to wear…would prefer a defib machine but you can’t have everything!!!!

Clarence

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Any financial product advice contained in this email is general financial product advice only and does not take into account any one person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, before acting on any financial product advice in this email, you should consider, with or without the assistance of an independent adviser, the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs