Morning all,

Three days in a row for the Dow. First time this year that the US has fallen for that length of time! Strange days indeed. Anyway sub 15,000 for them and I suspect sub 4700 for us and heading to 4600 where it will be somewhat compelling..good news for the scare mongers the battered Aussie dollar rallied!! Confused, yes I know I am .It was a terrible thing when the Aussie was strong at 1.05 but the media has talked collapse and other disaster words as it has fallen to 94 cents!!The fact is the currency was too high for too long and the damage has been done. Those businesses that have closed ,failed or just taken their bat and ball and gone home will NOT suddenly start up now the currency is at 94…sorry RBA you missed it..again!

Our market today will fall in all the usual places but the one bright spot may be Gold..not NCM though..that is definitely not a bright spot as class action talk emerges..I suggested that some days ago…only a matter of time…suggested last night in my afternoon report for BBY that NCM was like an Italian striker who dives in the box and then gets up and gives the ref the “who me look!”Beggars belief that the board came up with a $6bn writedown at the last minute…ASIC should be all over this one..the speeding ticket reply that NCM gave was pathetic!

Japanese futures should be interesting today..big range again and despite bouncing off that 13,000 level I think we may see the Abe plan continue to take its toll..three arrows detail to be announced Friday and today we get Aussie jobs numbers…I believe that things are a lot worse out there than the official data suggests….could be wrong but I think the economy needs some serious confidence as we try to transistion to a post mining boom world and China offers no hand up the economic ladder…

Idea of the Day

I think we will see 4600 on the ASX 200 in the next few weeks and at that level the market will start to look attractive…nibble away as we fall to that level in case I am wrong, focus on US dollar exposed companies and yield payers with sustainable price gouging abilities like the banks and TLS etc…it is going to be a long run up to the election as the buffoons in Canberra assume that we care what they are now doing…the electorate has lost interest a long time ago…expect it to get more ridiculous as we get nearer to the actual date..not going to help sentiment or confidence…not sure which tie will be worse now..red or blue…

Things to make me go Messi!

1.The greatest footballer of the moment is up for tax fraud from the Spanish Government and could face 4 years in jail…that would make the closing of the Greek ABC equivalent look like a sensible act..if anyone needs a catalyst in Spain to take up their arms in a sea of trouble, it would be jailing Lionel!!

2.Newcrest Mining: is facing the prospect of multiple shareholder class actions and rising investor anger despite ¬claiming to the ASX that its actions before unveiling massive write-downs and budget cuts last week were in accordance with listing rules. Law firm Maurice Blackburn revealed on Wednesday it had started an investigation into how Newcrest, Australia’s largest goldminer, disclosed the write-downs on Friday, which could amount to as much as $6 billion, after a number of brokers advised their clients to sell the stock in the days prior

3.Traders at some of the world’s biggest banks manipulated benchmark foreign-exchange rates used to set the value of trillions of dollars of investments, according to five dealers with knowledge of the practice.

Employees have been front-running client orders and rigging WM/Reuters rates by pushing through trades before and during the 60-second windows when the benchmarks are set, said the current and former traders, who requested anonymity because the practice is controversial….yet another nail in the credibility of the financial markets…rigged markets surely not?

4.Good to see that the Greek Government is stifling Free speech with news that they have closed the country’s public broadcaster…it is a stark reminder, if anyone needed it, that Greece is still stuffed and although off the radar for a while is now firmly back on…bickering and discontent rule…the cradle of democracy and free speech only works when they don’t need to ask the Germans for money!

5.The World bank has downgraded it’s Global growth forecasts as China slows,Europe contracts although it sees growth in the US and Japan especially in the printing press business.

6.Billagone International directors are expected to meet today to discuss the future of the embattled company as negotiations over a critical recapitalisation extend into a second week. Shares in the surf and skatewear group shed further value yesterday, closing at a record low of 19.5c, in the absence of any update on its ongoing discussions with Altamont Capital Partners and Sycamore Partners regarding their refinancing and asset sales proposals,….good luck with that!!

7.St George, now part of WBC, is doing away with tellers completely as it trials teleconferencing in its branches..the NBN was made for this stuff…apparently customers will be able to Skype specialist advisers in central hubs that can offer advice..I remember those hubs were called branches! They even had managers..now they will just have a hologram of Rimmer offering financial advice…gotta love that personal service!!

8.With a guarantee of its $3.5bn loan in place, Vodafone yesterday turned on its long-awaited 4G network, becoming the last major mobile player in Australia to launch this mobile service..will rival cause TLS a few sleepless nights?No….these guys are playing catch up big time..

9.And expect a few sore heads and a quiet hungover day tomorrow as the Annual Stockbrokers awards ceremony takes place tonight..it’s usually a big affair and I am sure those that attend will be out to impress their peers with what a great year it’s been for broking…money will be spent like VB at Bathurst…have a great night to those that are going..me, I am off to Goldies,eh

And finally….

Paddy, the Irish boyfriend of the woman whose head was found on Arbroath beach was asked to identify her.

A detective held up the head to which point Paddy said “I don’t think that’s her, she wasn’t that tall!

There will be no note tomorrow as I am going to Surfers for a long weekend. See you all Tuesday .

Clarence

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