Morning all,

Well that makes it 19 on the trot..19 Tuesdays in a row when the Dow has gone up..beginning to look a lot like Black Caviars run…amazingly the gains on Tuesday since February have added up to around 9.5% whilst the rest of the days have been nowhere!!!Benny and the Inkjets due to testify tomorrow so expect some volatile trading as maybe we get more clues as to when he pulls the QEIII rug away.

Got our market wrong yesterday as we gave up all the gains from the previous day…the “bubble banks” were to blame as some brokers suggested that they were overvalued…we know they are overvalued but it’s the yield stupid!!!Let’s face it if you hold them, why sell, if you don’t hold them probably best not to chase at these prices but any pullback is a buying opportunity…the sector was responsible for 65% of the fall yesterday!!!These guys really are the market!!!

So the big question is who is going to be today’s profit downgrade..we had Transfield, Boart Longyear,Fantastic(NOT) and the Grey Nomads favourite, Fleetwood Mac yesterday …all awful and all battered the share prices significantly with the exception of BLY which wasn’t as bad as some thought..mind you they had been smashed anyway!!15% seems to be the required fall after fessing up!

Expect a positive day with a small gain after the Dow rose but nerves pre Ben’s talk will be in order…maybe 10 up..banks to find a few friends again and some picking over the ruins of the resources may still be in order..Gold went nowhere ,Iron Ore did nada and Oil pretty quiet so not much to go on as they say

Idea of the Day

Our analyst is just back from Palin country, Alaska after seeing LNC Umiat well in action…this is their big hope but looks like we won’t get more testing til 2014 which is a long time away…in the meantime looks like production numbers are a little soft out of the Gulf of Mexico so see no reason to be in it at the moment but longer term Umiat looks like a winner…in which case I would be looking to buy these puppies if they dribble back towards the 1.20 level…we have price target of $3.00 but may take a while to get there unless they have a good farm in or drill results out of the US…production likely to be downgraded and cash flow will be pushed out too…Buy around 1.20!!

AWE yesterday did nothing, went nowhere after a bit of early enthusiasm…it doesn’t happen overnight though but it will happen..

Things to make me go Chelsea Flower sho

1.An Aussie team has taken out best of show at the Chelsea Flower Show with a unique unanimous vote from the judges..,well done guys…brilliant effort..never been done before Unanimous!!

2.More than half a million people have pulled out of the sharemarket over the past two years, turning their backs on shares rather than risk global volatility. Figures show 6.68 million people, or 38 per cent of the population, owned shares at the end of 2012, the lowest level since the ASX started keeping records in 2000

3.New  US Debt!!!! $16,699,421,095,673.60.

4.This was in the Australian today..these guys are kidding themselves!!!!

Billabong is itching to restart its transformation program after US-listed rival Quiksilver this week laid out a three-year plan to boost profit by dumping poorly performing brands and stores. Quiksilver, which was founded in Victoria but is now run from California and listed on the NYSE, has declared it will increase EBITDA by $US150 million ($153m) by 2016, after reporting losses for each of the past four years totalling $US117m….Mind you I saw “The Drift” at the movies last night maybe they should go back to basics with their retailing strategy..works in the movies..good film  as well!!

5.Tax avoidance by the big boys is in the spotlight as Apple getting roasted… In the last four years, Apple has avoided paying taxes on $44 billion in income, said Senator John McCain, the panel’s top Republican. He called the company “one of the biggest tax avoiders in America.”Three entities set up in Ireland hold 60 % of Apple’s profits and claim to be tax residents “nowhere in the world,” McCain said. “It’s completely outrageous.”

6.Good news that the Tornado ravaged suburbs of Oklahoma  have coughed up some more survivors from the rubble…death toll revised down to 24…only 38 minutes warning that it was coming! Mega scary but seems QBE was not in its path…at least not too much…

7.Another barrage from Nigel Farange at the EU….”If we look at the EU officials who work for the European Commission and the European Parliament, the highest category [the most common grade is AD12] are people that earn a net take home pay of just over 100 thousand pounds a year. And yet under EU rules they pay tax of 12 per cent. It is tax fraud on an absolutely massive scale”.

8.Myer’s sales have grown slightly, but the department store remains cautious about the future for the retail industry. Myer’s total sales in the 13 weeks to April 27 were $652.5 million, up 0.5 per cent from $651.1 million in the corresponding period in 2012.

9.US private equity heavyweight Kohlberg Kravis Roberts late Tuesday offloaded its remaining $260 million stake in television to newspaper interest Seven West Media, bringing to an end its 6½-year involvement in Australia’s media sector. The sale of the 12 per cent stake in Seven West Media came just hours after Seven named broadcasting veteran Tim Worner to take over as chief executive’s from current boss Don Voelte on July 1.

10.And in the “After the horses have bolted” awards …

Fleetwood cut to sell at Argonaut Securities..this is after they fell like a stone yesterday!!!!Good one lads..have a huge bonus!Actually most analysts use the after the fact method..much safer that way..although some still get it wrong!!!

11.And Senator Conroy who is so inept and out of touch it’s not funny has brokered a deal with the TV companies and the bookies to continue to allow Tom Waterhouse and the like to pollute our screens and sports….another mistake by this joke of a minister…Internet filter, media laws and others to name a few…come on Jules get him gone..

All Time Highs: AIG, MGF, AHD, OSH

5 Year Highs: TLS

1 ½ Year Highs: PTM, CGF

And finally….Thanks Al! It’s a cracker…keep them jokes coming in..makes my job so much easier!!

Two 90 year old men, Mike and Joe, have been friends all of their lives.

When it’s clear that Joe is dying, Mike visits him every day. One day Mike says, “Joe, we both loved football all our lives, and we played football on Saturdays together for so many years. Please do me one favour, when you get to Heaven, somehow you must let me know if there’s football there.”

Joe looks up at Mike from his death bed,” Mike, you’ve been my best friend for many years. If it’s at all possible, I’ll do this favour for you.

Shortly after that, Joe passes on.

At midnight a couple of nights later, Mike is awakened from a sound sleep by a blinding flash of white light and a voice calling out to him, “Mike–Mike..”

“Who is it? asks Mike sitting up suddenly. “Who is it?”

“Mike–it’s me, Joe.”

“You’re not Joe. Joe just died.”

“I’m telling you, it’s me, Joe,” insists the voice.”

“Joe! Where are you?”

“In heaven”, replies Joe. “I have some really good news and a little bad news.”

“Tell me the good news first,” says Mike.

“The good news,” Joe says,” is that there’s football in heaven. Better yet, all of our old friends who died before us are here, too. Better than that, we’re all young again. Better still, it’s always spring time and it never rains or snows. And best of all, we can play football all we want, and we never get tired.”

That’s fantastic,” says Mike. “It’s beyond my wildest dreams! So what’s the bad news?

“You’re in the team for this Saturday.”

Have a good day

 

Clarence

XXXX

Any financial product advice contained in this email is general financial product advice only and does not take into account any one person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, before acting on any financial product advice in this email, you should consider, with or without the assistance of an independent adviser, the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs