Morning all,

A quiet night overseas with the quietest day in the US this year as their index once again pushed to an all-time high as celebrations for Pope Frank began in earnest.

We have our unemployment numbers here today which are expected to show a rise to 5.5%.This will be enough to set off panic apparently in the RBA who will immediately (or at least next month) cut rates again. Now the market is pricing this in with near certainty but I would suggest that with GDP growth of 3.1% and the equity and housing markets on the up they will hold fire ..in fact I would suggest that the status quo will remain as it is for some time. However our market has run hard and I think the big winners will continue to pullback..by that I mean the banks and other defensives…now it will not be a huge pullback because there is so much money sitting on the sidelines that needs to find a better home than deposits but suspect that 4950 will be seen. We are starting to get the sector rotation out of banks and into resources. Now its early days and the signs are tentative but I would rather buy BHP at 35.90 than CBA at 70 bucks  but that’s just me….yesterday’s announcement from NAB on 800m savings due to better technology was a bit ho hum …probably a cynical exercise by Cameron to shore up his own defences by rearranging the deck chairs in the management team…looks like he is there for a few more years at the trough.

Expect to see our market stagnate early waiting for the jobs numbers but then resume the backing and filling that we need to go through..would suggest we will see further profit taking in the banks and other defensive yield stocks.

Idea of the Day

One for the small cap fans..NTC (Netcomm)…we saw these guys back before Xmas and since then the stock has gone very well…expect to see it continue to find favour. They have done a deal with Vodafone which will enable them to connect machines to the net for wireless reporting…big growth area especially in medical devices which can then be tracked by professionals…and of course coffee machines that can order resupplies etc..it wants to ensure everything is internet connected…going to make a lot of money doing this..market is expected to grow rapidly..earnings for 2013 around $1.8 to 2.5m on revenue of 45m ish..significant vodafone volume and profitability expected to start in 2014 /15..market cap at present is only 26m so plenty of scope to push higher….if you are not into small caps then APN is still worth a look and you can read more on that one from my email yesterday.

Things that make me go all Popey!!!

1.I was watching one of the talking heads on CNBC yesterday from the Bank of America yesterday saying the US market will go higher because the yield of over 2% is better than Treasury’s. Our yields in comparison must be very compelling..no wonder they are buying our banks and TLS…and the dollar is weakening as well…just an aside the great switch trade from Bonds to Equities doesn’t seem to be happening(yet)… today’s US bond auction, saw the Treasury sell $21 billion in Treasury paper at the low, low yield of just 2.029%, below February’s 2.046% auction yield.

2.Iron ore weaker overnight again with a fall of 4.40 and the Gold price easier as well.

3.Bayern Munich through to Champions League quarters despite Arsenal putting two past them at home. Big ask for the London club and just fell short.Shame!

4.Greece has postponed a reform deal with its international creditors as a number of issues “remained open” after nearly two weeks of talks, its finance minister said.Seems the Greeks are baulking at sacking another 150,000 government workers.Can’t think why..must be great for an economy to put all those people out of work. Although let’s face it it’s not work they do!

5.My favourite Zombie sceptic Nigel Farange has led a scathing attack on Bulgarians and Romanians suggesting they should never have been allowed in the EU in the first place and next year the UK is expecting a flood of these guys claiming benefits. He has stated that the countries are effectively organised crime states and the majority of ATM fraud and identity theft in the UK is perpetrated by Romanians and Bulgarians. There is trouble brewing and it will become a civil unrest issue soon.

6.Another Conjob misfire as every media organisation in the country is squealing about media reforms…some of it quite virulent and personal especially from the guardians of free speech and phone tapping News Ltd…not good to upset the press in an election year..think Conjob is updating his CV as we speak.

7.Billagone has given the two bidders a deadline of March 28^th to submit their bids or they will get really upset with them. Must mean there is another profit downgrade due just after Easter!

8.BTR says it will avoid a dilutive equity raising after striking an $US80 million ($77m) deal with commodities trading company Glencore. Glencore will effectively buy a further 12.6 per cent interest in the Perkoa zinc project in Burkina Faso from Blackthorn for $US35m, as part of an overall additional $US80m injection into the development….good news for BTR indeed.

9. Sales at U.S. retailers climbed twice as much as forecast in February, showing improving job prospects are helping consumers and the economy overcome higher taxes and gasoline prices.Purchases jumped 1.1 percent, exceeding all projections in a Bloomberg survey of economists and the biggest gain in five months.

10.MYR numbers out this morning ,Miranda Kerr crashed her car she was so surprised…slightly better than the market was going for but only slightly..not sure if it’s enough to continue the rally but we shall see.

And finally in the essence of balance…

Top 10  reasons for being German.

 

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Have a good day

 

 

Clarence

XXX 

 

Any financial product advice contained in this email is general financial product advice only and does not take into account any one person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, before acting on any financial product advice in this email, you should consider, with or without the assistance of an independent adviser, the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.