Morning all,

 

The Grand old Duke of York would have been proud of the US on Friday..after marching up to the top of the hill, he marched them down again..despite good jobs numbers the market fell away as the day wore on and gave up the gains from the previous day…it’s a big week in the US ..its Mitt versus Obama…my money is on Obama winning ..jobs numbers help and Sandy has been a big boost for him…problems won’t really emerge until after the election..historically the market rallies on average 3% post an election..however the fiscal cliff is coming up..as a reminder the cliff is due to increased in taxes and reduced Government spending …predictions of a big hit to US GDP and the derailment of the nascent recovery,…

 

Here is a timetable of what’s ahead

 

 

In news closer to home…

WBC has announced numbers this morning..headline is down 15% but that is due to a tax charge relating to their slaying of the St George  Dragon…

Westpac’s cash earnings in the 12 months to September 30, which takes out one-off financial items, rose five per cent to $6.598 billion compared to the previous year, marking the third year of record cash profits. The cash result was above analysts’ expectations of $6.46 billion.

Westpac said the result included a 9 per cent rise in second-half cash profit, beating expectations on tight costs, and said it had improved its balance sheet even as bad debts rose.

Cash earnings from the bank’s Australian retail and business banking units were higher than the previous year’s, up 14 per cent to $2.1 billion as deposits and loans grew. Other divisions of the bank posted more steady results, with St George’s earnings flat compared to the previous year, at $1.2 billion.

This is not great but not bad..so grey is good..or beige ..boring but stable….slight rise in the dividend though  but no enough to get anyone really excited!!!Probably the best result from the three banks this season though…

I would expect a down 20 type day with RBA tomorrow, Melbourne Cup as well and Chinese Leadership change begins and US elections..who is going to be brave in this environment…

A few predictions for this week..Obama will win..RBA will NOT cut…and I will not win Lotto!!! Hope I am wrong on one..guess which!

Idea of the Day:RXM

I was a buyer of these on Friday and view a pullback as a further opportunity to accumulate this one…there is a large value gap between these and other Copper/Gold stocks on the ASX ..of course they have to deliver and get funding etc..but the new man is a solid performer in this space so expect the news to improve. There has been a large seller in the market for a while with BlackRock owning up recently…however if you are bullish copper/gold longer term as China stabilises and begins its new phase then this could be worth looking at for the longer term..buy below 80c..

 

1.The ‘Zombiezone’ will take at least another five years to recover from the crippling debt crisis that has hampered even Europe’s most powerful economy, according to German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

2.ARI: Our favourite takeover stock is reassuring the market that its Iron Ore expansion is on target and on budget with the upgrade due Mid December…more volume with offset lower prices…get those guys from the Consortium back on the line!!!Don’t let them get away!!!

3.The Future Fund(or rather the Civil Service pension fund) has paid $1bn in fees..you have got to be joking…$1bn in fees that is almost criminal!!They are certainly looking after the fund managers future if nothing else…and this is so sad.. “A spokesman for the Future Fund said the fund generated an annualised five-year return of 4.4 per cent per annum”If they had just left it in TLS better return and no fees…and these guys get paid a fortune for these decisions!!

4.News that Apple pays only 2% tax on its profits outside the US ….and even in the countries it does pay tax, it minimises it by using various accounting moves to shift profits to countries with low tax rates. For example, the strategy known as ‘‘Double Irish With a Dutch Sandwich’’ routes profits through Irish and Dutch subsidiaries and then to the Caribbean….Alan Bond would be proud…stock now trading 18% below its September 19 high..I am not a bitter man but if you give me back my lost photos I will go back to being an admirer again.Samsung has been the big winner in Apple’s fails this year!!!

5.Anglo Ashanti Gold announced a production boost to one million ounces in Australia. He also said that the local operations may be hived off into a separate vehicle that could then be floated on the sharemarket. It would be a competitor for investors’ attention to the listed Newcrest Mining. It would also dwarf EVN and RRL…

6.Sydney FC get walloped by The Mariners as Chelsea lose top spot to United..say it ain’t so!

7.Greek strikes this week..will anyone notice?

8.Gold had a tough night suggest we may see 1650..then fill yer boots!!!IGR and SLR are two to watch but SBM and RRL will be worth looking at then!!

9.US jobless rate rose to 7.9% as more people entered the workforce and 171,000 workers were added in the month of October.

10.Chief Greek Pollie, Samaras pledged yesterday that the raft of wage and pension cuts in the latest austerity package will be the last and that Greek society won’t tolerate any more, according to comments made to lawmakers of his New Democracy party. The first parliamentary vote in Athens may come as early as Nov. 7.

And finally…..please feel free to send me your jokes to include in the email in the morning..having been writing this since January I am starting to run out of good clean jokes…so send em in and I will ensure they get out into the wide world!!!
Have a great Monday

Clarence

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Any financial product advice contained in this email is general financial product advice only and does not take into account any one person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, before acting on any financial product advice in this email, you should consider, with or without the assistance of an independent adviser, the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.