Morning all,

Well that was a turnaround…when I woke up this morning the Dow was down 85 points but closed up 2!Low volume but Apple seemed to rescue the Dow on the verge of its earnings update…so far this earnings season in the US 59% of companies have disappointed….and on the US it’s the last Presidential debate tonight with Romney and Obama locked level peggings…this debate may decide it! Until we get a result in the election we may be in a twilight zone..

All quiet from the Zombie’s last night…not even any good rumours..so left to our own devices ..

Yesterday was a better result than some were going for and the sell off was relatively benign ..expect a wishy washy day today with focus on AGM Commentaries

We have AGK BKN CLO IAG PBG SMX SRX and WOR today so should prove interesting….

The MYEFO from the Black Swan was another ding for business with company tax payments now to be paid monthly…this Government is hell bent on the Political surplus…whilst we can applaud their fiscal discipline it is not due to anything other than political expediency. Of course it will help the RBA in their mission to cut rates….we need the DOLLAR down!!!

Expect an up 5-10 kind of day …and I still believe that the trend is up and that we will start to see the clouds clear as we head towards Xmas..The Index has good potential to hit 4700 by then..next year may be a whole different ball game but in US election years, the markets do well..first year of a new ‘Pres’ the markets don’t do so well!!

Idea of the day:

AGO (BUY)

Iron Ore looks set to recover and one of the best ways to play this story is through AGO which looks set to continue its advance after last week’s positive announcement on production and funding options…this stock is a buy!

Price target on this one is 2.00..currently 1.70..plenty of upside…Iron Ore price pushing slightly higher again last night.

Things that made my go all Lance Armstrong…if any more cyclists are stripped of titles I may be the Tour de France winner!(Well if I rode a bike and entered that is! Still I reckon I have more chance than Lance!!!)

1.News out in the SMH today suggest that Australia has gone from a low cost low income producer to a high cost high income one… The IMF’s database shows goods and services costing $US100 ($A97) to produce in the US now cost $US41 to produce in India, $US67 in China, $US105 in Germany or Britain – but $US161 in Australia….Only Norway and Switzerland more expensive!!!

2.Conrad Black is a Lord…anyway he has told the media that he thinks Rupert Murdoch is a psychopath!!Bit Harsh especially coming from Black!!

3.AGL is upgrading its earnings forecasts and has a dig at regulators… AGL said it expects its 2012-13 financial year underlying profit to be in the range of $590 million and $640 million, up from $482 million in the previous year.

4.GrainCorp looks like it is in play with the US bidding for this one..expect another bidder top emerge before this one is through..would nt be surprised to see the Chinese enter the race at some stage. They are keen on agri assets.

5.Presidential Debate kicks off again tonight!!! Suspect Uncle Ben will be ‘Barracking’ for Obama…Mitt not have a job under Romney!

6.Queensland lifts its ban on Uranium mining..just something else for Newman to tax perhaps…

7. Chinese factories are losing pricing power in the worst wholesale-cost deflation since 2009, signalling corporate earnings may deteriorate further and putting a damper on global inflation pressures. This may allow central banks more room to stimulate and cut rates…

8.This lovely little chart comes courtesy of my mates at www.zerohedge.com…looks like a crucial make or break point is coming for this one..it’s the S&P 500 in all its glory!!!

And finally….

A man and his girlfriend were out to dinner one night.

The waiter tells them the night’s specials are almond chicken and fresh fish.

“The chicken sounds good; I’ll have that,” the woman says.

The waiter nods. “And the vegetable?” he asks.

“Oh, he’ll have the fish too,” she replies.

Have a good day

Clarence

XXX

 

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