Morning all,

 

Running a little late this morning as a late night on front of the telly! Why did I get my hopes up eh?

 

News from the US on Friday showed just how tepid the US economic recovery is and the Dow gave back some of its recent gains falling 125 points. Commodities were hit on the bad jobs numbers and ‘Zombieland’ was again strafed by the rise in Spanish and Italian bonds. It now looks likely that the Germans didn’t quite commit as much as some people thought a few weeks ago..the German President has also asked ‘Moaning Mertle’ to explain why the poor old tax payer should bail out their profligate southern cousins..tricky question indeed..

 

Our market has open down 40 and no real reason for anything different..volumes will be pathetic..Friday was under $3bn so it’s getting worse as is the US with Turnover of just 2.63bn shares, the lowest number of shares this year for a full trading day.

 

I would expect our market to remain in the doldrums until we get some concrete results either from the US or from here..although can’t help feeling that analysts are a bit too bullish and we may drift lower.

 

The range continues to be 4000 to 4400 but after a better week last week suspect this week will be backing and filling.

 

Good to see BBG picking up on Friday..was writing about them last week..still believe this is a classic takeover target..I mean who wouldn’t want to own their own surf company at the right price…talk about great lifestyle businesses..it has all the hallmarks of a takeover waiting to happen..bad management good profile and good penetration and global reach..ego says there is someone out there that reckons they can run it better  and now the Merchant of Bells is open to a takeout I suspect its only a  matter of time..this one is speculative and one for those with a  high risk tolerance but I would expect a 1.80 takeout price in the next few months..but its risky! For those that care, good buying under 1.10..Speculative though but what isnt these days…thats why US 10 years are 1.6%!!!

 

Things to make me go all deuce!

 

1.Murray loses to Federer..the man is a machine but Murrays turn will come..one day!

2.Weber wins at Silverstone. Wiggins ahead in Tour De France and England blitz Australia at One day International..

3.Cash is continuing to build up in US bond markets with the 10 year yield at 1.6%.

4.The Politics of the US will start to become a factor with elections in the air..Obama’s score card doesn’t look good at all..such promise but Foodstamps recipients have increased by 14.6 million from 31.567 million to 46,187 (as of April 2012);

5.Words of caution from Roubini or Dr Doom “2013 will be a very difficult year to find shelter as policy-makers ability to kick-the-can runs out of steam as he sees the possibility of a ‘Global Perfect Storm’ of a euro-zone collapse, a US double-dip, a China & EM hard-landing, and a war in the Middle East.” Dr. Doom is back.I’ll say…

6.Massive Downgrade for ILU this morning..stock down 18%!!!Oh how the mighty have fallen ..why do the analysts never see this coming..now they have fallen they will all rush out and put a sell on the stock!!!!Genius..give them $250,000 a year for that …

7. The Chinese inflation figures due out today..its all growth though that people care about and that’s slowing…may you live in interesting times..

8.See below! Actually watch out below…

US public debt in the last three years..this cannot go on forever!!

 

“The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘This time it’s different.’”

And finally

 

My wife and I took out life insurance policies on each other — so now it’s just a waiting game.

Have a good day

Clarence

XXX

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