Morning all,
Has anyone noticed what the Dow has done recently…its nearly 13,000 again…up 8% from its early June low…bit like the find the lady,whilst we have all been looking at Spain ,Greece and the disaster that is Zombieland,the US guys have quietly bid their market ever higher!We also have the Olympics coming..and everyone knows for those two weeks the World is sorted so maybe we can see some clear sky for a while..maybe?
Its all about commodities today as Resource markets like Brazil and Canada have been putting on impressive gains up over 2% last night..Oil is back to 87 bucks a barrel after hitting 77 last week.We are a commodities based economy so expect to see some strength starting to appear in BHP,FMG,RIO etc…the risk off trade has been the way to go for some time but maybe time to start knawing away at resource stocks again..I am still a little sceptical about the current rally as it seems that as the worse the news the more the traders think Uncle Ben will step in and rescue us…this may be true in the past but I think the ability of the Fed to stimulate as before is not that possible..they will talk tough and carry a big stick..Although sceptical I am happy to go along for the ride!!Range is 4000-4400 after all..
Our market will once again be trending up although not in a spectacular way…the SPI was up 17 points so expext something in that region...I think it may be tiome to have a look at BHP seriously..at these prices if the World does stabilise then we may see a bounce to 34-35 bucks..In offshore trade, BHP added 1.62 per cent and Rio rose by 2.66 per cent.
Gold also looks like it is trying to push higher up again last night to 1620…more printing of money will help hard assets.
Things that make me go all LIEBOR!
1.The LIEBOR scandal in the UK is not going to go away soon as the BOE now looks like being dragged into it.Bob Diamond,the CEO ,has fallen on his sword and the COO has gone together with the Chairman!!And thats just Barclays!
2.Andy Murray wins at Wimbledon..can we dream?Yes we can!
3.German 1-year yields rose two basis points to 1.54% Spanish 10-year yield slipped 12 basis points to 6.26% Italy’s 10-year bond yield fell 10 basis points to 5.64%..starting to unwind the disaster premiums!
4.Vix down to 16.6..very low historically….complacency still in order?
5.”Money-printing is the only solution left for Central Banks and in reality without fundamental changes in the way Europe and the US is run, the best money-printing can do is keep the dying alive a bit longer” Charles Biderman (CEO of Trim Tabs).
6.Brokers issuing profit warnings on themselves as Bell Potter fesses up.Its hurting out there..low volumes..computer trading..lack of client enthusiasm…equities out of fashion..haven’t seen it this bad since early 90’s.
7.DJS debacle has caused the very integrity of the market into question and especially the judgement of the board.You only had to google earth the address to get a bit suspicious..
8.Reporting season in Australia is coming up so expect to see more fence sitting until we get the real numbers!
9.RBA keeps rates on hold…suspect that this will continue unless Zombieland gets worse..
10.US markets closed tonight for Independence Day holiday.
Have a good day..
Economist jokes…well they are aren’t they..
Man walking along a road in the countryside comes across a shepherd and a huge flock of sheep. Tells the shepherd, “I will bet you $100 against one of your sheep that I can tell you the exact number in this flock.” The shepherd thinks it over; it’s a big flock so he takes the bet. “973,” says the man. The shepherd is astonished, because that is exactly right. Says “OK, I’m a man of my word, take an animal.” Man picks one up and begins to walk away.
“Wait,” cries the shepherd, “Let me have a chance to get even. Double or nothing that I can guess your exact occupation.” Man says sure. “You are an economist for a government think tank,” says the shepherd. “Amazing!” responds the man, “You are exactly right! But tell me, how did you deduce that?”
“Well,” says the shepherd, “put down my dog and I will tell you.”
Clarence
XXX